Em testes nos quais uma quantidade considerável de indivíduos não dispõe de tempo suciente para responder todos os itens temos o que é chamado de efeito de Speededness. O uso do modelo unidimensional da Teoria da Resposta ao Item (TRI) em testes com speededness pode nos levar a uma série de interpretações errôneas uma vez que nesse modelo é suposto que os respondentes possuem tempo suciente para responder todos os itens. Nesse trabalho, desenvolvemos uma análise Bayesiana do modelo tri-dimensional da TRI proposto por Wollack e Cohen (2005) considerando uma estrutura de dependência entre as distribuições a priori dos traços latentes a qual modelamos com o uso de cópulas. Apresentamos um processo de estimação para o modelo proposto e fazemos um estudo de simulação comparativo com a análise realizada por Bazan et al. (2010) na qual foi utilizada distribuições a priori independentes para os traços latentes. Finalmente, fazemos uma análise de sensibilidade do modelo em estudo e apresentamos uma aplicação levando em conta um conjunto de dados reais proveniente de um subteste do EGRA, chamado de Nonsense Words, realizado no Peru em 2007. Nesse subteste os alunos são avaliados por via oral efetuando a leitura, sequencialmente, de 50 palavras sem sentidos em 60 segundos o que caracteriza a presença do efeito speededness. / In tests where a reasonable amount of individuals does not have enough time to answer all items we observe what is called eect of Speededness. The use of a unidimensional model from Item Response Theory (IRT) in tests with speededness can lead us to erroneous interpretations, since this model assumes that the respondents have enough time to answer all items. In this work, we propose a Bayesian analysis of the three-dimensional item response models (IRT) proposed by Wollack and Cohen et al (2005) considering a dependency structure between the prior distributions of the latent traits which is modeled using Copulas. We propose and develop a MCMC algorithm for the estimation of the model. A simulation study comparing with the analysis in Bazan et al (2010), wherein an independent prior distribution assumption was presented. Finally, we apply our model in a set of real data from EGRA, called Nonsense Words, held in Peru in 2007, where students are evaluated for their performance in reading.

Em testes nos quais uma quantidade considerável de indivíduos não dispõe de tempo suciente para responder todos os itens temos o que é chamado de efeito de Speededness. O uso do modelo unidimensional da Teoria da Resposta ao Item (TRI) em testes com speededness pode nos levar a uma série de interpretações errôneas uma vez que nesse modelo é suposto que os respondentes possuem tempo suciente para responder todos os itens. Nesse trabalho, desenvolvemos uma análise Bayesiana do modelo tri-dimensional da TRI proposto por Wollack e Cohen (2005) considerando uma estrutura de dependência entre as distribuições a priori dos traços latentes a qual modelamos com o uso de cópulas. Apresentamos um processo de estimação para o modelo proposto e fazemos um estudo de simulação comparativo com a análise realizada por Bazan et al. (2010) na qual foi utilizada distribuições a priori independentes para os traços latentes. Finalmente, fazemos uma análise de sensibilidade do modelo em estudo e apresentamos uma aplicação levando em conta um conjunto de dados reais proveniente de um subteste do EGRA, chamado de Nonsense Words, realizado no Peru em 2007. Nesse subteste os alunos são avaliados por via oral efetuando a leitura, sequencialmente, de 50 palavras sem sentidos em 60 segundos o que caracteriza a presença do efeito speededness. / In tests where a reasonable amount of individuals does not have enough time to answer all items we observe what is called eect of Speededness. The use of a unidimensional model from Item Response Theory (IRT) in tests with speededness can lead us to erroneous interpretations, since this model assumes that the respondents have enough time to answer all items. In this work, we propose a Bayesian analysis of the three-dimensional item response models (IRT) proposed by Wollack and Cohen et al (2005) considering a dependency structure between the prior distributions of the latent traits which is modeled using Copulas. We propose and develop a MCMC algorithm for the estimation of the model. A simulation study comparing with the analysis in Bazan et al (2010), wherein an independent prior distribution assumption was presented. Finally, we apply our model in a set of real data from EGRA, called Nonsense Words, held in Peru in 2007, where students are evaluated for their performance in reading.

Non-response is an error common to most surveys. In this dissertation, the error of non-response is described in terms of its sources and its contribution to the Mean Square Error of survey estimates. Various response and completion rates are defined. Techniques are examined that can be used to identify the extent of nonresponse bias in surveys. Methods to identify auxiliary variables for use in nonresponse adjustment procedures are described. Strategies for dealing with nonresponse are classified into two types, namely preventive strategies and post hoc adjustments of data. Preventive strategies discussed include the use of call-backs and follow-ups and the selection of a probability sub-sample of non-respondents for intensive follow-ups. Post hoc adjustments discussed include population and sample weighting adjustments and raking ratio estimation to compensate for unit non-response as well as various imputation methods to compensate for item non-response. / Mathematical Sciences / M. Com. (Statistics)

Le sujet principal de cette thèse porte sur l'étude de l'estimation de la variance d'une statistique basée sur des données d'enquête imputées via le bootstrap (ou la méthode de Cyrano). L'application d'une méthode bootstrap conçue pour des données d'enquête complètes (en absence de non-réponse) en présence de valeurs imputées et faire comme si celles-ci étaient de vraies observations peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la variance. Dans ce contexte, Shao et Sitter (1996) ont introduit une procédure bootstrap dans laquelle la variable étudiée et l'indicateur de réponse sont rééchantillonnés ensemble et les non-répondants bootstrap sont imputés de la même manière qu'est traité l'échantillon original. L'estimation bootstrap de la variance obtenue est valide lorsque la fraction de sondage est faible. Dans le chapitre 1, nous commençons par faire une revue des méthodes bootstrap existantes pour les données d'enquête (complètes et imputées) et les présentons dans un cadre unifié pour la première fois dans la littérature. Dans le chapitre 2, nous introduisons une nouvelle procédure bootstrap pour estimer la variance sous l'approche du modèle de non-réponse lorsque le mécanisme de non-réponse uniforme est présumé. En utilisant seulement les informations sur le taux de réponse, contrairement à Shao et Sitter (1996) qui nécessite l'indicateur de réponse individuelle, l'indicateur de réponse bootstrap est généré pour chaque échantillon bootstrap menant à un estimateur bootstrap de la variance valide même pour les fractions de sondage non-négligeables. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions les approches bootstrap par pseudo-population et nous considérons une classe plus générale de mécanismes de non-réponse. Nous développons deux procédures bootstrap par pseudo-population pour estimer la variance d'un estimateur imputé par rapport à l'approche du modèle de non-réponse et à celle du modèle d'imputation. Ces procédures sont également valides même pour des fractions de sondage non-négligeables. / The aim of this thesis is to study the bootstrap variance estimators of a statistic based on imputed survey data. Applying a bootstrap method designed for complete survey data (full response) in the presence of imputed values and treating them as true observations may lead to underestimation of the variance. In this context, Shao and Sitter (1996) introduced a bootstrap procedure in which the variable under study and the response status are bootstrapped together and bootstrap non-respondents are imputed using the imputation method applied on the original sample. The resulting bootstrap variance estimator is valid when the sampling fraction is small. In Chapter 1, we begin by doing a survey of the existing bootstrap methods for (complete and imputed) survey data and, for the first time in the literature, present them in a unified framework. In Chapter 2, we introduce a new bootstrap procedure to estimate the variance under the non-response model approach when the uniform non-response mechanism is assumed. Using only information about the response rate, unlike Shao and Sitter (1996) which requires the individual response status, the bootstrap response status is generated for each selected bootstrap sample leading to a valid bootstrap variance estimator even for non-negligible sampling fractions. In Chapter 3, we investigate pseudo-population bootstrap approaches and we consider a more general class of non-response mechanisms. We develop two pseudo-population bootstrap procedures to estimate the variance of an imputed estimator with respect to the non-response model and the imputation model approaches. These procedures are also valid even for non-negligible sampling fractions.

Non-response is an error common to most surveys. In this dissertation, the error of non-response is described in terms of its sources and its contribution to the Mean Square Error of survey estimates. Various response and completion rates are defined. Techniques are examined that can be used to identify the extent of nonresponse bias in surveys. Methods to identify auxiliary variables for use in nonresponse adjustment procedures are described. Strategies for dealing with nonresponse are classified into two types, namely preventive strategies and post hoc adjustments of data. Preventive strategies discussed include the use of call-backs and follow-ups and the selection of a probability sub-sample of non-respondents for intensive follow-ups. Post hoc adjustments discussed include population and sample weighting adjustments and raking ratio estimation to compensate for unit non-response as well as various imputation methods to compensate for item non-response. / Mathematical Sciences / M. Com. (Statistics)