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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

On the economic costs of value at risk forecasts

Miazhynskaia, Tatiana, Dockner, Engelbert J., Dorffner, Georg January 2003 (has links) (PDF)
We specify a class of non-linear and non-Gaussian models for which we estimate and forecast the conditional distributions with daily frequency. We use these forecasts to calculate VaR measures for three different equity markets (US, GB and Japan). These forecasts are evaluated on the basis of different statistical performance measures as well as on the basis of their economic costs that go along with the forecasted capital requirements. The results indicate that different performance measures generate different rankings of the models even within one financial market. We also find that for the three markets the improvement in the forecast by non-linear models over linear ones is negligible, while non-gaussian models significantly dominate the gaussian models. / Series: Report Series SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

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