This paper examines for the first time the relationship between the net issue values of aggregate bonds, as well as the different bond sectors separately, and economic growth. The other new feature of this study is the usage of quarterly data. Granger causalities are calculated for time series of 15 European countries, the USA, and Japan in order to test if there is a positive relationship between the development of bond markets and economic growth also for shorter time periods. The significant Granger causalities found show the following tendency: Economic growth is causal for net issue values of government bonds, and net issuance of corporate and financial institutions bonds are causal for economic growth. That finding is important for the future architecture of the financial sector, in particular in emerging markets and the new EU member countries. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

We use annual real GDP and the volume of the bond, stock and credit markets to assess the causal relationship between the aggregate bond market development and economic growth in the USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, France and the Netherlands over the 1950 to 2001 period. The literature on the real - financial nexus to date has focused on the credit and stock markets, with few exceptions. Partially due to data availability problems, the impact of bond markets on economic growth has not yet been examined in the same way. To fill this gap we provide empirical evidence for long-run equilibrium and Granger causality in at least one direction in the relationship among real GDP and bond, credit and stock markets in seven economies with large bond markets. The supplyleading hypothesis that development of the financial markets enhances growth is supported in all countries except for Germany. The demand-leading hypothesis that economic development pulls the development of the financial markets is supported only for Germany. A feedback between domestic credits and output is found in Japan. There is evidence for a feedback between the equity markets and real output in Japan and the Netherlands. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

This paper examines the relationship between the development of the aggregate bond markets and real GDP in 13 highly developed economies. The recent interest in the ties between the real and the financial sector has usually been on the banking sector and the stock markets, rather ignoring the bond markets as a third essential source of external finance. We fill this gap by providing empirical evidence for causality patterns supporting the supply-leading approach in the USA, UK, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Spain over the 1950 to 2000 period. In the cases of Japan, Finland and Italy we find evidence of interdependence between bond market capitalization growth and real output growth. Granger causality test and co-integration approach are employed to support this conjecture. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut