Thesis (M. Sc. (Institute for Water Research))--Rhodes University, 2005.

This thesis presents a discussion on the study undertaken in the application of the monthly time step Pitman rainfall-runoff model to the Kafue River basin. The study constituted one of the initial steps in the capacity building and expansion of the application of hydrologic models in the southern African region for water resources assessment, one of the core areas of the Southern African FRIEND project (Flow Regimes from International Experimental Network Data). The research process was undertaken in four major stages, each stage working towards achieving the research objectives. The first stage was the preparation of spatial data which included the selection and delineation of sub-catchments and inclusion of spatial features required to run the Pitman model and transferring the spatial data into SPATSIM. The second stage was the preparation of input data, mainly rainfall, streamflow, evaporation, and water abstraction data. This information was then imported into SPATSIM, which was able to assist in the further preparation of data by assessment of the input data quality, linking of observed flows and spatial interpolation of point rainfall data to average catchment rainfall in readiness for running and calibration of the model. The third stage was the running and calibration of the Pitman model. Use was made of both the automatic calibration facility, as well as manual calibration by means of the time series graph display and analysis facility of SPATSIM. Model calibration was used to obtain the best fit and an acceptable correlation between the simulated and the observed flows and to obtain simulation parameter sets for sub-catchments and regions within the Kafue catchment. The fourth stage was the analysis and evaluation of the model results. This included verification of results over different time periods and validation and testing of parameter transfers to other catchments. This stage also included the evaluation of SPATSIM as a tool for applying the model and as a database for the processing and storage of water resources data. The study’s output includes: A comprehensive database of hydrometeorological, physical catchment characteristics, landuse and water abstraction information for the Kafue basin; calibrated Pitman model parameters for the sub-catchments within the Kafue basin; recommendations for future work and data collection programmes for the application of the model. The study has also built capacity by facilitating training and exposure to rainfall-runoff models (specifically the Pitman model) and associated software, SPATSIM. In addition, the dissemination of the results of this study will serve as an effective way of raising awareness on the application of the Pitman model and the use of the SPATSIM software within Zambia and the region. The overall Pitman model results were found to be satisfactory and the calibrated model is able to reproduce the observed spatial and temporal variations in streamflow characteristics in the Kafue River basin.

The Kafue Flats floodplain wetland system in southern Zambia is under increasing climate and human pressures. Firstly, drought episodes appear more prevalent in recent years in the region and secondly, two dams were built on the lower and upper ends of the wetland in 1972 and 1978, respectively, across the Kafue River which flows through the wetland. The study uses multi-temporal remote sensing to assess change in extent and vigour of green vegetation, and extent of water bodies and dry land cover on the Kafue Flats. The change detection's management value is assessed. Four normalised, co-registered digital Landsat images from 24 September 1984, 3 September 1988, 12 September 1991 and 20 September 1994 were used. The main change detection method used was comparison of classifications, supplemented by Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) change detection. Ancillary land use and environmental data were used in interpreting the change in the context of cause and effect. The results indicate inconsistent trends in the changes of most land cover classes, as a result of manipulation of the wetland by man through annual variations in the timing and magnitude of regulated flows into the wetland, as well as burning. However, the results also show spatial reduction in the wetland's dry season dense green reed-grass vegetation in upstream sections which are not affected by the water backing-up above of the lower dam. Sparse green vegetation is replacing the dense green vegetation in these upstream areas. It is inferred that this dry season degradation of the wetland threatens bird species which may use the reeds for dry season nesting. It is proposed that ground surveying and monitoring work at the micro-habitat level is necessary to ascertain the implications of the losses. It is concluded that, in spite of difficulties, multi-temporal remote sensing has a potential role in wetland change assessment on the Kafue Flats at the community level, but that it needs to be supplemented by targeted, micro-habitat level ground surveys.