• Refine Query
  • Source
  • Publication year
  • to
  • Language
  • 151
  • 150
  • 38
  • 21
  • 13
  • 9
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • Tagged with
  • 450
  • 123
  • 59
  • 58
  • 57
  • 51
  • 49
  • 45
  • 41
  • 40
  • 39
  • 36
  • 35
  • 32
  • 32
  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
51

The impact of spatial interpolation techniques on spatial basis risk for weather insurance: an application to forage crops

Turenne, Daniel 21 September 2016 (has links)
Weather index insurance has become a popular subject in agricultural risk management. Under these policies farmers receive payments if they experience adverse weather for their crops. Spatial basis risk is the risk that weather observed at stations does not correspond to the weather experienced by the farmer. The objective of this research is to determine to what extent spatial basis risk can be impacted by the interpolation technique used to estimate weather conditions. Using forage crops from Ontario, Canada, as an example, a temperature based insurance index is developed. Seven different interpolation methods are used to estimate indemnities for forage producers. Results show that the number of weather stations in the interpolation area has a larger impact on spatial basis risk than the choice of interpolation technique. For insurers wishing to implement this type of insurance, more focus should be placed on increasing the number of available weather stations. / October 2016
52

Uso de dados de diferente suporte em geoestatística e desenvolvimentos em simulação geoestátistica multivariada

Bassani, Marcel Antônio Arcari January 2018 (has links)
Essa tese investiga três problemas: (1) o uso de dados de diferente suporte em geoestatística, (2) simulação multivariada com restrições e (3) verificação da distribuição multivariada. Quando as amostras tem suporte diferente, essa diferença de suporte precisa ser considerada para construir um modelo de teores. A tese propõe a krigagem utilizando covariâncias médias entre as amostras para considerar dados de diferente suporte. A metodologia é comparada com dois métodos: (1) krigagem utilizando covariâncias pontuais entre os dados e (2) o método indireto. A krigagem utilizando covariâncias pontuais entre os dados ignora a diferença de suporte entre os dados. O método indireto trabalha com a variável acumulação, em vez do teor original. A krigagem com covariâncias médias resultou em estimativas mais precisas do que os outros dois métodos. Depósitos minerais multivariados frequentemente têm variáveis que contém restrições de fração e soma. As restrições de fração ocorrem quando uma variável é parte da outra, como a Alumina Aproveitável e Alumina Total em um depósito de bauxita. A Alumina Aproveitável não pode ser maior do que a Alumina Total. Restrições de soma ocorrem quando a soma das variáveis não pode exceder um valor crítico. Por exemplo, a soma de teores não pode ser maior do que cem. A tese desenvolve uma metodologia para cosimular teores com restrições de soma e fração. As simulações reproduzem os histograms, variogramas e relações multivariadas e honram as restrições de soma e fração. As simulações geoestatísticas multivariadas devem reproduzir as relações entre as variáveis. Dentro desse contexto, essa tese investiga a verificação da distribuição multivariada de simulações geoestatísticas. A tese desenvolve uma métrica de distância entre a distribuição multivariada dos dados e das simulações. A métrica desenvolvida foi efetiva para detectar erro e viés. Além disso, a métrica foi usada para comparar métodos de simulação geoestatística multivariada. / This thesis investigates three problems: (1) use of data of different support in geostatistics, (2) multivariate simulation with constraints and (3) verification of the multivariate distribution. When the samples have different support, this difference in support must be considered to build a grade model. The thesis proposes kriging with average covariances between the data to consider data of different support. The methodology is compared with two methods: (1) kriging using point support covariances between the data and (2) the indirect approach. Kriging using point support covariances between the data ignores the difference in support between the data. The indirect approach works with the variable accumulation, instead of the original grade. Kriging with average covariances resulted in more precise estimates than the other two methods. Multivariate mineral deposits often have variables that contain fraction and sum constraints. Fraction constraints occur when a variable is a fraction of the other, such as Recoverable and Total Alumina in a bauxite deposit. The Recoverable Alumina must not exceed Total Alumina. Sum constraints occur when the sum of the variables must not exceed a critical threshold. For instance, the sum of grades must not be above one hundred in a mineral deposit. The thesis develops a methodology to cosimulate grades with sum and fraction constraints. The simulations reproduce the histograms, variograms and multivariate relationships and honor the sum and fraction constraints. Multivariate geostatistical simulations should reproduce the relationships between the variables. In this context, the thesis investigates the verification of the multivariate distribution of geostatistical simulations. The thesis develops a metric to measure the distance between the multivariate distributions of the data and the simulations. The metric developed was effective to detect error and bias. Moreover, the metric was used to compare multivariate simulation methods.
53

Estudo do efeito de suavização da krigagem ordinária em diferentes distribuições estatísticas / A study of ordinary kriging smoothing effect using diferent statistics distributions

Anelise de Lima Souza 12 July 2007 (has links)
Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados da investigação quanto à eficácia do algoritmo de pós-processamento para a correção do efeito de suavização nas estimativas da krigagem ordinária. Foram consideradas três distribuições estatísticas distintas: gaussiana, lognormal e lognormal invertida. Como se sabe, dentre estas distribuições, a distribuição lognormal é a mais difícil de trabalhar, já que neste tipo de distribuição apresenta um grande número de valores baixos e um pequeno número de valores altos, sendo estes responsáveis pela grande variabilidade do conjunto de dados. Além da distribuição estatística, outros parâmetros foram considerados: a influencia do tamanho da amostra e o numero de pontos da vizinhança. Para distribuições gaussianas e lognormais invertidas o algoritmo de pós-processamento funcionou bem em todas a situações. Porém, para a distribuição lognormal, foi observada a perda de precisão global. Desta forma, aplicou-se a krigagem ordinária lognormal para este tipo de distribuição, na realidade, também foi aplicado um método recém proposto de transformada reversa de estimativas por krigagem lognormal. Esta técnica é baseada na correção do histograma das estimativas da krigagem lognormal e, então, faz-se a transformada reversa dos dados. Os resultados desta transformada reversa sempre se mostraram melhores do que os resultados da técnica clássica. Além disto, a as estimativas de krigagem lognormal se provaram superiores às estimativas por krigagem ordinária. / This dissertation presents the results of an investigation into the effectiveness of the post-processing algorithm for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates. Three different statistical distributions have been considered in this study: gaussian, lognormal and inverted lognormal. As we know among these distributions, the lognormal distribution is the most difficult one to handle, because this distribution presents a great number of low values and a few high values in which these high values are responsible for the great variability of the data set. Besides statistical distribution other parameters have been considered in this study: the influence of the sample size and the number of neighbor data points as well. For gaussian and inverted lognormal distributions the post-processing algorithm worked well in all situations. However, it was observed loss of local accuracy for lognormal data. Thus, for these data the technique of ordinary lognormal kriging was applied. Actually, a recently proposed approach for backtransforming lognormal kriging estimates was also applied. This approach is based on correcting the histogram of lognormal kriging estimates and then backtransforming it to the original scale of measurement. Results of back-transformed lognormal kriging estimates were always better than the traditional approach. Furthermore, lognormal kriging estimates have provided better results than the normal kriging ones.
54

Variabilidade espacial dos atributos químicos do solo sob pastagem irrigada e de sequeiro : impactos na produtividade e qualidade do capim tifton 85 /

Oliveira, Vera Lúcia Pegorer de. January 2012 (has links)
Orientador: José Carlos Barbosa / Co-orientador: Marcílio Vieira Martins Filho / Banca: Teresa Cristina Tarlé Pizzarra / Banca: Luiz Carlos Pavani / Banca: Renato Farias do Valle Junior / Banca: Humberto Gois Candido / Resumo: As práticas de manejo do solo, aliadas ao manejo das culturas, têm como preocupação básica criar condições favoráveis para que a produção tenha resultados máximos a custo satisfatório, com o mínimo possível de danos ao meio ambiente. Este trabalho teve como objetivo mapear a dependência espacial da variabilidade de atributos químicos do solo sob o pasto de tifton 85 e de atributos relacionados com a produtividade e qualidade desta forrageira, em sistemas de sequeiro e irrigado, buscando, pela interpretação e comparação dos mapas de krigagem, encontrar padrões de relação em suas heterogeneidades. Ao investigar estas variabilidades, buscou-se contribuir com o aperfeiçoamento do manejo empregado em sistemas de exploração de área de pastagem irrigada e de sequeiro, com manejo em lotação rotacionada e adubação na saída dos animais dos piquetes. Para entender a distribuição espacial dos atributos químicos do solo e de atributos relacionados à produtividade e qualidade do capim tifton 85, este trabalho, utilizou ferramentas da geoestatística. As amostras do solo foram colhidas em rede de 48 pontos georreferenciados em cada sistema e as amostras do capim, no entorno desses pontos. Nos seus mapas, foram encontrados padrões que evidenciaram estruturas relacionadas, podendo-se verificar, pelo ajuste ao modelo esférico e a relação entre o efeito pepita e o patamar, que os atributos apresentaram dependência espacial forte ou moderada e que, portanto, não variaram de forma aleatória. Pela análise dos mapas, nas profundidades pesquisadas, foi evidenciada a manutenção das estruturas de distribuição dos... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The practices of soil management, allied to crop management have basic concern to create favorable conditions for the production, has cost satisfying the maximum results with the least possible harm to the environment. This study had the goal to map the spatial dependence of the variability of soil chemical properties under grazing Tifton 85 and the attributes related to productivity and quality of this forage systems in irrigated and dry land, searching for the interpretation and comparison of kriging maps, find patterns in their relationship heterogeneities. By investigating these variabilities, we sought to contribute to the improvement of management systems employed in exploration area of irrigated pasture and dryland, with management in rotational stocking and fertilization in animals left in the pickets. To understand the spatial distribution of soil chemical properties and attributes related to productivity and quality of Tifton 85, it was used geostatistical tools. Soil samples at depths of 0 to 20 cm and 20 to 40 cm were collected from the network of 48 georeferenced points in each system. Samples of grass were obtained in the surroundings of points. On generated maps were found patterns that characterize related structures and can be verified by setting the spherical model and the ratio of nugget effect and landing, strong or moderate... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor
55

Variabilidade espacial dos atributos químicos do solo sob pastagem irrigada e de sequeiro: impactos na produtividade e qualidade do capim tifton 85

Oliveira, Vera Lúcia Pegorer de [UNESP] 28 November 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:31:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2012-11-28Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:01:26Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 oliveira_vlp_dr_jabo.pdf: 10518029 bytes, checksum: e1f14beaf992321e1c7b000a8d539166 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / As práticas de manejo do solo, aliadas ao manejo das culturas, têm como preocupação básica criar condições favoráveis para que a produção tenha resultados máximos a custo satisfatório, com o mínimo possível de danos ao meio ambiente. Este trabalho teve como objetivo mapear a dependência espacial da variabilidade de atributos químicos do solo sob o pasto de tifton 85 e de atributos relacionados com a produtividade e qualidade desta forrageira, em sistemas de sequeiro e irrigado, buscando, pela interpretação e comparação dos mapas de krigagem, encontrar padrões de relação em suas heterogeneidades. Ao investigar estas variabilidades, buscou-se contribuir com o aperfeiçoamento do manejo empregado em sistemas de exploração de área de pastagem irrigada e de sequeiro, com manejo em lotação rotacionada e adubação na saída dos animais dos piquetes. Para entender a distribuição espacial dos atributos químicos do solo e de atributos relacionados à produtividade e qualidade do capim tifton 85, este trabalho, utilizou ferramentas da geoestatística. As amostras do solo foram colhidas em rede de 48 pontos georreferenciados em cada sistema e as amostras do capim, no entorno desses pontos. Nos seus mapas, foram encontrados padrões que evidenciaram estruturas relacionadas, podendo-se verificar, pelo ajuste ao modelo esférico e a relação entre o efeito pepita e o patamar, que os atributos apresentaram dependência espacial forte ou moderada e que, portanto, não variaram de forma aleatória. Pela análise dos mapas, nas profundidades pesquisadas, foi evidenciada a manutenção das estruturas de distribuição dos... / The practices of soil management, allied to crop management have basic concern to create favorable conditions for the production, has cost satisfying the maximum results with the least possible harm to the environment. This study had the goal to map the spatial dependence of the variability of soil chemical properties under grazing Tifton 85 and the attributes related to productivity and quality of this forage systems in irrigated and dry land, searching for the interpretation and comparison of kriging maps, find patterns in their relationship heterogeneities. By investigating these variabilities, we sought to contribute to the improvement of management systems employed in exploration area of irrigated pasture and dryland, with management in rotational stocking and fertilization in animals left in the pickets. To understand the spatial distribution of soil chemical properties and attributes related to productivity and quality of Tifton 85, it was used geostatistical tools. Soil samples at depths of 0 to 20 cm and 20 to 40 cm were collected from the network of 48 georeferenced points in each system. Samples of grass were obtained in the surroundings of points. On generated maps were found patterns that characterize related structures and can be verified by setting the spherical model and the ratio of nugget effect and landing, strong or moderate... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)
56

Aquisição e processamento de dados morfométricos derivados do modelo digital de elevação SRTM / Acquisition and processing of morphometric parameters derivatives from SRTM model

Steiner, Samar dos Santos 20 July 2007 (has links)
Os dados de SRTM são distribuídos com resolução espacial de 1arcsec (aprox. 30m) para áreas dentro dos EUA e de 3arcsec (aprox. 90m) para o resto do mundo. A resolução de 90m pode ser considerada apropriada para a análise em escalas pequenas e médias, mas é demasiadamente grosseira para trabalhos em detalhe. Uma alternativa para esta questão é a reamostragem do modelo SRTM; o processo não aumenta o nível de detalhe do modelo digital de elevação (MDE) original, mas conduz a uma superfície em que há uma maior coerência angular (isto é, declividade, orientação) entre pixels vizinhos, característica esta importante por se tratar da análise de terreno. O objetivo deste trabalho é mostrar como o ajuste apropriado do variograma e de parâmetros de krigagem (efeito da pepita e da distância máxima) podem ser utilizados nos valores que são empregados na interpolação visando obter resultados de qualidade na reamostragem de dados de SRTM de 3arcsec para 1arcsec. A análise morfométrica é utilizada como uma ferramenta auxiliar em estudos geológicos. O avanço dos sistemas de informação geográfica (SIG) e a disponibilidade de MDE\'s globais trouxeram maior agilidade e confiabilidade na avaliação dos parâmetros associados à superfície topográfica. Este trabalho faz uma comparação entre dois pacotes SIG mais utilizados na produção e Processamento de dados morfométricos, o projeto livre GRASS-GIS, e o software proprietário ESRI ArcGISTM. Foram analisados os parâmetros morfométricos como declividade, orientação de vertentes, rugosidade de terreno e superfícies de isobase. Os dados da elevação de SRTM 3arcsec foram reamostrados para 1arcsec e são utilizados como base para derivação dos parâmetros morfométricos. Os mapas de declividade e de orientação de vertentes produzidos pelo GRASS-GIS e pelo ArcGIS são equivalentes. O mapa de isobase mostrou diferenças significativas. As características principais podem ser identificadas em ambos os produtos, porém o mapa GRASS apresenta formas mais suaves e contornos mais naturais, enquanto o mapa gerado pelo ArcGIS mostra uma superfície com ruídos e diversas quebras bruscas. Este problema pode ser devido às diferenças de métodos de interpolação e à distribuição espacial dos dados, aglomerados ao longo das linhas de drenagem. No GRASS, a rugosidade de terreno pode ser facilmente calculada, enquanto no ArcGIS o usuário deve executar diversas operações. Ao contrário dos mapas de isobase, os mapas de rugosidade produzidos por ambos os software são muito similares, em função da provável distribuição regular dos pontos usados na interpolação. Se considerarmos todos os fatores que intervêm na qualidade dos produtos gerados como variograma, parâmetros de krigagem, a resolução do DEM, o valor de acumulação do fluxo e o método de interpolação, os mapas morfométricos produzidos serão equivalentes a um mapa interpretado manualmente por um especialista. / SRTM data is distributed at horizontal resolution of 1arcsec (aprox. 30m) for areas within the USA and at 3arcsec (aprox. 90m) resolution for the rest of the world. A 90m resolution can be considered suitable for small or medium-scale analysis, but it is too coarse for more detailed purposes. One alternative is to interpolate the SRTM data at a finer resolution; it won?t increase the level of detail of the original DEM, but it will lead to a surface where you find coherence of angular properties (i.e., slope, aspect) between neighbouring pixels, being this an important characteristic when dealing with terrain analysis. This work intends to show how the proper adjustment of variogram and kriging parameters -named the nugget effect and the maximum distance within which values are used in interpolation - can be set to achieve quality results on resampling SRTM data from 3arcsec to 1arcsec. Morphometric analysis is being used as an auxiliary tool in geological studies. Improvement of Geographic Information System (GIS) and availability of near-global digital elevation models (DEMs), have brought fastness and reliability in the assessment of parameters associated with the topographic surface. This work intends to make a comparison between two widely used GIS packages regarding production and manipulation of morphometric data, the Open-Source project GRASS-GIS and the proprietary ESRI ArcGISTM. The morphometric parameters Slope, Aspect, Surface Roughness and Isobase Surface were analyzed. SRTM 3arcsec elevation data was resampled to 1arcsec and used as base for deriving morphometric parameters. Slope and Aspect maps produced by GRASS-GIS and ArcGIS are equivalent. Isobase maps showed significant differences and the main features can be identified in both products. GRASS surface presents smoother forms and contours, while ArcGIS created a surface with noise and several step-like features. This problem can be due to differences of interpolation methods and the spatial distribution of data points, clustered along the stream lines. In GRASS, surface roughness can be easily calculated using a shell script, while in ArcGIS, the user must perform several operations. Unlike the isobase surface maps, roughness maps produced by both software are very similar, as a consequence of the regular distribution of data points used for interpolation. If all factors that intervene in the quality of generated products such as variograma and kriging parameters, DEM resolution, flow accumulation threshold and interpolation method were considered, produced morphometric maps will be equivalent to a map manually interpreted by an expert.
57

Estudo do efeito de suavização da krigagem ordinária em diferentes distribuições estatísticas / A study of ordinary kriging smoothing effect using diferent statistics distributions

Souza, Anelise de Lima 12 July 2007 (has links)
Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados da investigação quanto à eficácia do algoritmo de pós-processamento para a correção do efeito de suavização nas estimativas da krigagem ordinária. Foram consideradas três distribuições estatísticas distintas: gaussiana, lognormal e lognormal invertida. Como se sabe, dentre estas distribuições, a distribuição lognormal é a mais difícil de trabalhar, já que neste tipo de distribuição apresenta um grande número de valores baixos e um pequeno número de valores altos, sendo estes responsáveis pela grande variabilidade do conjunto de dados. Além da distribuição estatística, outros parâmetros foram considerados: a influencia do tamanho da amostra e o numero de pontos da vizinhança. Para distribuições gaussianas e lognormais invertidas o algoritmo de pós-processamento funcionou bem em todas a situações. Porém, para a distribuição lognormal, foi observada a perda de precisão global. Desta forma, aplicou-se a krigagem ordinária lognormal para este tipo de distribuição, na realidade, também foi aplicado um método recém proposto de transformada reversa de estimativas por krigagem lognormal. Esta técnica é baseada na correção do histograma das estimativas da krigagem lognormal e, então, faz-se a transformada reversa dos dados. Os resultados desta transformada reversa sempre se mostraram melhores do que os resultados da técnica clássica. Além disto, a as estimativas de krigagem lognormal se provaram superiores às estimativas por krigagem ordinária. / This dissertation presents the results of an investigation into the effectiveness of the post-processing algorithm for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates. Three different statistical distributions have been considered in this study: gaussian, lognormal and inverted lognormal. As we know among these distributions, the lognormal distribution is the most difficult one to handle, because this distribution presents a great number of low values and a few high values in which these high values are responsible for the great variability of the data set. Besides statistical distribution other parameters have been considered in this study: the influence of the sample size and the number of neighbor data points as well. For gaussian and inverted lognormal distributions the post-processing algorithm worked well in all situations. However, it was observed loss of local accuracy for lognormal data. Thus, for these data the technique of ordinary lognormal kriging was applied. Actually, a recently proposed approach for backtransforming lognormal kriging estimates was also applied. This approach is based on correcting the histogram of lognormal kriging estimates and then backtransforming it to the original scale of measurement. Results of back-transformed lognormal kriging estimates were always better than the traditional approach. Furthermore, lognormal kriging estimates have provided better results than the normal kriging ones.
58

Improving emissions inventories in North America through systematic analysis of model performance during ICARRT and MILAGRO

Mena, Marcelo Andrés 01 January 2007 (has links)
During 2004 and 2006 the University of Iowa provided air quality forecast support for flight planning of the ICARTT and MILAGRO field campaigns. A method for improvement of model performance in comparison to observations is showed. The method allows identifying sources of model error from boundary conditions and emissions inventories. Simultaneous analysis of horizontal interpolation of model error and error covariance showed that error in ozone modeling is highly correlated to the error of its precursors, and that there is geographical correlation also. During ICARTT ozone modeling error was improved by updating from the National Emissions Inventory from 1999 and 2001, and furthermore by updating large point source emissions from continuous monitoring data. Further improvements were achieved by reducing area emissions of NOx y 60% for states in the Southeast United States. Ozone error was highly correlated to NOy error during this campaign. Also ozone production in the United States was most sensitive to NOx emissions. During MILAGRO model performance in terms of correlation coefficients was higher, but model error in ozone modeling was high due overestimation of NOx and VOC emissions in Mexico City during forecasting. Large model improvements were shown by decreasing NOx emissions in Mexico City by 50% and VOC by 60%. Recurring ozone error is spatially correlated to CO and NOy error. Sensitivity studies show that Mexico City aerosol can reduce regional photolysis rates by 40% and ozone formation by 5-10%. Mexico City emissions can enhance NOy and O3 concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico in up to 10-20%. Mexico City emissions can convert regional ozone production regimes from VOC to NOx limited. A method of interpolation of observations along flight tracks is shown, which can be used to infer on the direction of outflow plumes. The use of ratios such as O3/NOy and NOx/NOy can be used to provide information on chemical characteristics of the plume, such as age, and ozone production regime. Interpolated MTBE observations can be used as a tracer of urban mobile source emissions. Finally procedures for estimating and gridding emissions inventories in Brazil and Mexico are presented.
59

Modified Bayesian Kriging for noisy response problems and Bayesian confidence-based reliability-based design optimization

Gaul, Nicholas John 01 July 2014 (has links)
The objective of this study is to develop a new modified Bayesian Kriging (MBKG) surrogate modeling method that can be used to carry out confidence-based reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) for problems in which simulation analyses are inherently noisy and standard Kriging approaches fail. The formulation of the MBKG surrogate modeling method is presented, and the full conditional distributions of the unknown MBKG parameters are derived and coded into a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Using the coded Gibbs sampling algorithm, Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to fit the MBKG surrogate model. A sequential sampling method that uses the posterior credible sets for inserting new design of experiment (DoE) sample points is proposed. The sequential sampling method is developed in such a way that the new DoE sample points added will provide the maximum amount of information possible to the MBKG surrogate model, making it an efficient and effective way to reduce the number of DoE sample points needed. Therefore, it improves the posterior distribution of the probability of failure efficiently. Finally, a confidence-based RBDO method using the posterior distribution of the probability of failure is developed. The confidence-based RBDO method is developed so that the uncertainty of the MBKG surrogate model is included in the optimization process. A 2-D mathematical example was used to demonstrate fitting the MBKG surrogate model and the developed sequential sampling method that uses the posterior credible sets for inserting new DoE. A detailed study on how the posterior distribution of the probability of failure changes as new DoE are added using the developed sequential sampling method is presented. Confidence-based RBDO is carried out using the same 2-D mathematical example. Three different noise levels are used for the example to compare how the MBKG surrogate modeling method, the sequential sampling method, and the confidence-based RBDO method behave for different amounts of noise in the response. A comparison of the optimization results for the three different noise levels for the same 2-D mathematical example is presented. A 3-D multibody dynamics (MBD) engineering block-car example is presented. The example is used to demonstrate using the developed methods to carry out confidence-based RBDO for an engineering problem that contains noise in the response. The MBD simulations for this example were done using the commercially available MBD software package RecurDyn. Deterministic design optimization (DDO) was first done using the MBKG surrogate model to obtain the mean response values, which then were used with standard Kriging methods to obtain the sensitivity of the responses. Confidence-based RBDO was then carried out using the DDO solution as the initial design point.
60

Simulating and assessing salinisation in the lower Namoi Valley

Ahmed, Mohammad Faruque January 2001 (has links)
Dryland salinity is increasing in the upper catchments of central and northern New South Wales, Australia. Consequently, salts may be exported downstream, which could adversely affect cotton irrigated-farming systems. In order to assess the potential threat of salinity a simple salt balance model based on progressively saline water (i.e., ECiw 0.4, 1.5, 4.0 and 9.0 dS/m) was used to simulate the potential impact of salinisation due to the farming systems. The study was carried out in the lower Namoi valley of northern New South Wales, Australia. A comparison has been made of the various non-linear techniques (indicator kriging, multiple indicator kriging and disjunctive kriging) to determine an optimal simulation method for the risk assessment. The simulation results indicate that potential salinisation due to application of the water currently used for irrigation (ECiw) is minimal and may not pose any problems to sustainability of irrigated agriculture. The same results were obtained by simulation based on irrigation using slightly more saline water (ECiw 1.4 dS/m). However, simulations based on irrigation using water of even lower quality (ECiw of 4 and 9.0 dS/m), shows potential high salinisation, which will require management inputs for sustainable cropping systems, especially legumes and wheat, which are used extensively in rotation with cotton. Disjunctive kriging was the best simulation method, as it produced fewer misclassifications in comparison with multiple-indicator kriging and indicator kriging. This study thus demonstrates that we can predict the salinity risk due to application of irrigation water of lower quality than that of the current water used. In addition, the results suggest here problems of excessive deep drainage and inefficient use of water might be a problem. The second part of this thesis deals with soil information required at the field scale for management practices particularly in areas where deep drainage is large. Unfortunately, traditional methods of soil inventory at the field level involve the design and adoption of sampling regimes and laboratory analysis that are time-consuming and costly. Because of this more often than not only limited data are collected. In areas where soil salinity is prevalent, detailed quantitative information for determining its cause is required to prescribe management solutions. This part deals with the description of a Mobile Electromagnetic Sensing System (MESS) and its application in an irrigated-cotton field suspected of exhibiting soil salinity. The field is within the study area of part one of this thesis-located about 2 km south west of Wee Waa. The EM38 and EM31 (ECa) data provide information, which was used in deciding where soil sample sites could be located in the field. The ECa data measured by the EM38 instrument was highly correlated with the effective cation exchange capacity. This relationship can be explained by soil mineralogy. Using different soil chemical properties (i.e. ESP and Ca/Mg ratio) a detailed transect study was undertaken to measure soil salinity adjoining the water storage. It is concluded that the most appropriate management option to remediation of the problem would be to excavate the soil directly beneath the storage floor where leakage is suspected. It is recommended that the dam not be enlarged from its current size owing to the unfavourable soil mineralogy (i.e. kaolin/illite) located in the area where it is located.

Page generated in 0.2018 seconds