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Optimization of multiple investments with risk analysisSims, Stephen Paul January 1970 (has links)
The increasing amounts of initial capital investments in the chemical and petroleum industry are making accurate and realistic economic analyses a necessity. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a general economic evaluation model which was an improvement over previous analysis techniques. The new aspect of this model is its capability of analysing multiple investments with a comprehensive risk analysis and with a short computer running time. Significant features of the analysis technique include: (1) A general and flexible computer model which can easily be applied to a wide range of capital investment decisions, (2) The use of present value for a consistent and realistic economic evaluation criterion, (3) Consideration of the future economic environment through the capability of predicting the time-dependent changes of the main variables, (4) Monte Carlo risk analysis to determine the effect of uncertainty in the 14 main variables, (5) Two-plant analysis with the advantage of a delayed decision on the second plant, and (6) Execution in a relatively short computer running time (six minutes on IBM 360, 65). / Master of Science
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