published_or_final_version / Geography / Master / Master of Arts in China Development Studies

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Per paskutinį dešimtmetį Baltijos šalys išgyveno pilną ekonomikos ciklą - lėtą atsigavimą, spartų augimą ir staigų kritimą. Itin sparčiai vystėsi būsto paskolų ir nekilnojamojo turto rinka, todėl jau 2007 - 2008 metais buvo svarstoma dėl nekilnojamojo turto rinkos perkaitimo, nors dauguma gyventojų vis dar džiaugėsi galimybe be didesnių kliūčių gauti kreditą brangstančio būsto įsigijimui. Būgštavimai dėl ekonomikos ir jos atskirų sektorių perkaitimo buvo pagrįsti – Baltijos šalių ekonomikos 2009 m. smuko daugiausiai tarp visų ES valstybių. Taigi, įvykus nekilnojamojo turto sektoriaus ir būsto paskolų rinkos pakilimui bei nuosmukiui, galima ištirti būsto paskolų portfelį viso ekonominio ciklo periodu. Įvardinus veiksnius, labiausiai įtakojančius būsto paskolų portfelio augimą, būtų galima juos stebėti, bandyti pakeisti, ir taip ateityje išvengti potencialios ekonominės krizės arba sušvelninti galimus neigiamus ekonominio nuosmukio padarinius. Darbo tyrimo tikslas – ištirti makroekonominius veiksnius, darančius poveikį Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos šalių būsto paskolų portfelio dinamikai. Darbo objektas yra Baltijos šalių būsto paskolų portfelis ir jį įtakojantys makroekonominiai veiksniai. Siekiant užsibrėžto tikslo, yra sprendžiami uždaviniai: 1) Išnagrinėti ekonominėje literatūroje pateikiamus modelius, tiriančius būsto paskolų portfelį. 2) Apibrėžti makroekonominius veiksnius, įtakojančius būsto paskolų portfelį. 3) Išanalizuoti būsto paskolų portfelio pokyčius Baltijos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / During the last decade Baltic countries experienced a full economic cycle – slow recovery, fast growth and sharp deterioration of whole economy. On the growth period the portfolio of mortgage loans and real estate market developed extremely rapidly, thus, since 2007 - 2008 there was discussions about the overheating of economies and bubbles of the real estate prices in the Baltic countries. However, the majority of the citizens were still taking advantage of easy accessible mortgage loans for the acquisition of desired real estate even prices were going upwards. Unfortunately, doubts about overheating of the separate parts of economies were reasonable and economies of the Baltic countries contracted the most among all EU. Therefore, with a full picture of economic cycle the analysis of portfolio of mortgage loans is being developed. Identification of the main factors that are determining growth of the portfolio of mortgage loans is important for developing a strategy to avoid possible economic crises in the future or to ease the negative effects of economic downturn. The aim of the paper – to find out the most important macroeconomic factors that are determining the dynamic of mortgage portfolio in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The object of the paper – the mortgage portfolio of the three Baltic countries and macroeconomic factors of the mortgage portfolio. To reach the aim of the paper such tasks were developed: 1) Examine the theory and the models that are analyzing the... [to full text]

This study intends to assess the impact of reducing or restricting loan disbursement on the performance of banks in Ethiopia.

This study intends to assess determinants of nonperforming loans. The mixed research approach was adopted for the study. Survey was conducted with professionals engaged in both private and state owned Banks in Ethiopia holding different positions using a self administered questionnaire. In addition, the study used structured review of documents and records of banks and in-depth interview of senior bank officials in the Ethiopian banking industry. The findings of the study shows that poor credit assessment, failed loan monitoring, underdeveloped credit culture, lenient credit terms and conditions, aggressive lending, compromised integrity, weak institutional capacity, unfair competition among banks, willful default by borrowers and their knowledge limitation, fund diversion for unintended purpose, over/under financing by banks ascribe to the causes of loan default.

The aim of this study was to determine whether the South African household sector finds itself in a net lending or net borrowing situation and to analyse the situation. Research was done against the background of the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). As suggested by the 1993 SNA, the net lending situation of the South African household sector was calculated in the capital account of the household sector. It became clear that the South African household sector’s saving is in excess of its capital formation, although both components indicated a slight declining trend over the past almost thirty years. Current economic literature was used in focusing on household sector saving and capital formation definitions, categories, motivations and determinants. International situations with regards to saving and capital formation were also compared with that of South Africa, putting the South African situation into perspective. An econometric analysis of net household saving in South Africa for the period 1991 to 2002 indicated five factors that significantly influenced household sector saving over the period. The five factors comprise the income from property, the twelve-month fixed deposit rate, current taxes on income and wealth, compensation of employees and total private consumption expenditure. Making use of further data sets, it became clear that the South African government sector uses the household sector’s excess saving to finance increased current expenditure and does not channel these excess funds towards increased capital formation that would be beneficial for long-term economic growth. This study therefore suggested that the South African household sector should be encouraged to act entrepreneurial, which will lead to increased levels of capital formation, that will in turn contribute to long-term growth, and that can be financed by the current excess saving levels of the household sector. Increased capital formation will lead to increases in productivity and income. This will then enable the household sector to raise its level of saving, that again can be used to finance increased levels of capital formation. The five factors that tested significantly influencing household sector saving in South Africa, were linked to possible policy as well as other initiatives aimed at encouraging household sector saving and capital formation in South Africa. This study concluded by briefly discussing three initiatives currently encouraging and promoting the importance of saving in South Africa. / Prof. A.E. Loots

M. Comm. / The aim of the study is to estimate the demand function for housing in South Africa (for the period 1989 to 1998). It is important to study the housing demand as housing demand contributes positively towards economic growth and economic stability. The main findings in chapter five show that all the estimated parameters have a significant role on the demand for housing loans in South Africa, as approved by multiple regression results. However, real interest rates have a more significant impact on the demand for home loans. The study therefore asserts that the real interest rates must be as low as possible as a way of stimulating housing demand, thus providing investment and in turn there will be an increase in economic growth. The study further and finally asserts that taxation must be decreased, as a way of stimulating disposable income thus there will be an increase in investment spending.

The conventional theory of financial intermediation suggests that banks are the main conduit between savers and borrowers however, research has shown that international banks are losing importance in intermediating i.e. mobilise savings and allocating these funds among competing borrowers - this international reality is due to a number of reasons including changes in regulation, growth in capital markets, non-bank financial intermediaries, foreign competition etc. South Africa has a highly concentrated banking sector with the five largest banks holding more than 90% of the industry’s assets however growth in non-bank financial intermediaries are threatening the intermediary role and profitability of banks - this research serves to investigate whether bank disintermediation is occurring in the South African context and whether the traditional role of banks is declining.

Corporate finance theory suggests that bank’s private information about borrowers lets them hold up borrowers for higher interest rates and that hold up power should increase with borrower risk, and if so, banks with private information about borrowers should increase their rates in recessions more than warranted by borrower risk alone. Studies have been concluded in other markets for these propositions, particularly for the US market. This paper has replicated these studies for an emerging economy (Republic of South Africa) to see if the findings will hold across dissimilar markets. Hold up cost is not just a function of information monopoly, Rajan, 1992 posits that firms with a higher probability of failure should suffer more from informational hold-up cost. The risk of failure is more pronounced during recession than in expansion and hence relationship banks with information monopolies are able to extract more rents in recession than warranted by borrower default risk alone. Using literature that suggest that information rents can be mitigated by multiple banking relationships, I investigated further, whether this problem of hold up cost can be mitigated through a different channel by studying credit spreads of firms that have publicly sourced funds, and continued to seek private funds in the South African market.Using LOANSPREAD as the dependent variable in a regression model, I find that loan spreads are higher for bank-dependent firms, rise in recessions and rise by a greater amount in recessions for bankdependent firms. In the context of this study I define bank-dependent firms as those firms who have issued no public bond. The key finding is that, indeed multiple banking relationships can reduce informational monopolies, but issuing public bonds can be another channel that South African firms can use to avoid being taken advantage of by financiers with information monopoly over competing financiers.

by Chung So-har, Coco, Lai Ki-cheong, Michael. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1990. / Bibliography: leaves 69-70. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.v / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vi / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Purposes of Research --- p.1 / Commercial Lending Environment in Hong Kong --- p.2 / Research Methodolody --- p.4 / Chapter II. --- LENDING DECISION --- p.5 / Theoretical Approaches --- p.5 / Interviews --- p.11 / Classification of Information Items --- p.18 / Research Framework --- p.20 / Hypotheses --- p.24 / Chapter III. --- RESEARCH DESIGN --- p.27 / The Sampling Process --- p.27 / Sampling Plan --- p.28 / Data Collection Method --- p.29 / Chapter IV. --- DATA ANALYSIS --- p.32 / Response --- p.32 / Analysis and Results --- p.33 / Chapter V. --- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION --- p.47 / APPENDIX / Chapter I. --- Questionnaries for Bank Executives --- p.54 / Chapter II. --- Questionnaries for MBA Students --- p.56 / Chapter III. --- Frequency Distribution Analysis for Responses from Bank Executives --- p.58 / Chapter IV. --- Descriptive Variable Analysis for Responses from Bank Executives --- p.61 / Chapter V. --- Descriptive Variable Analysis for Responses from MBA Students --- p.62 / Chapter VI. --- List of Banks to which Questionnaries were sent --- p.63 / Chapter VII. --- Data and Coding Format --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.69