Impacts of Climate-responsive Controls and Land Usage on Regional Climate and Air Quality Marcus A. Trail 201 pages Directed by Dr. Armistead G. Russell Regional air quality impacts public health, visibility and ecosystem health, and is significantly affected by changes in climate, land use and pollutant emissions. Predictions of regional air quality responses to such changes can help inform policy makers in the development of effective approaches to both reduce greenhouse gases and improve air quality. However, major sources of uncertainty exist in predicting future air quality including limitations in the tools used to project future emissions, land use changes and uncertainties associated with predicting future climate. Recently, technical advances in downscaling global climate simulations to regional scales, and, the development of bottom-up operational tools used to forecast emissions have enhanced our ability to account for the complex interactions between population, socio-economic development, technological change, and federal and regional environmental policies. The results show that emissions reductions strategies will continue to play a vital role in improving air quality over the U.S. while CO2 emission reduction policies can have mixed positive and negative impacts on air quality. However, additional costs will be necessary to reach air quality goals due to climate change because deeper emission reductions will be required to compensate for a warmer climate, even if current efforts are predicted to show improvement. The results of this study also show that regional climate and O3 and aerosol concentrations are highly sensitive to reforestation and cropland conversion in the Southeast and these land use changes should be considered in air quality management plans.

Master of Arts / Geography / Marcellus M. Caldas / As concerns increase over climate change, energy independence, and higher fuel prices, Brazilian sugarcane ethanol is seen as a part of a clean energy future. Brazilian sugarcane ethanol was developed with a long history of government support, and with the introduction of the flex fueled car in 2003, demand rose dramatically. These factors have helped sugarcane expand beyond its traditional regions of Brazil into the Cerrado. More recently however, private capital from both domestic and foreign companies have started investing in Brazilian agriculture and these investments have helped fuel the sugarcane expansion into the Cerrado in the last 15 years. Over 22 sugarcane mills have been constructed in the Brazilian state of Goiás, located in the heart of the Cerrado. The increased investments driving the expansion of sugarcane into the Cerrado brings numerous questions regarding its environmental and social impacts. Thus, the goal of this thesis is to understand how the structural organization of the sugarcane ethanol mills’ affects development at a municipality level in the state of Goiás, Brazil. More specifically, this thesis has two objectives; to evaluate the effects of the sugarcane mills’ influence on land use and land cover change in these municipalities; and to compare how domestic owned mills, foreign owned mills, and jointly owned mills affect socioeconomic development on the municipalities. Three municipalities were analyzed, Edéia, Caçu, and Quirinópolis. Results showed that land use and land cover change varied by municipality. The majority of Edéia’s sugarcane expansion came from lands already in agricultural use. On the other hand, Caçu’s and Quirinópolis’s sugarcane expansion came from pasture lands. However, throughout all the municipalities, sugarcane expansion over native vegetation was small. All three municipalities increased their socioeconomic development levels over the past 20 years as reported on the Human Development Index. In addition, urban survey responses revealed that the residents of Edéia perceived the sugarcane mill had made their lives better than respondents in either Quirinópolis or Caçu. However, this analysis covers only a brief period of time, and future analysis of these, and other municipalities that host sugarcane mills throughout the Cerrado will be needed.

Changing land cover from prairie grasslands to intensive, primarily cereal agriculture, over the North American Great Plains since the mid-19th century, has had a hydrological and climatological impact on that ecosystem (Pielke, Sr., et al., 2011). Agriculture has introduced timed harvest seasons, irrigation, and C3 photosynthesizing crops with poorer water efficiency than the grasses it replaced. All of these changes have been linked to exacerbated drought conditions and warmer temperatures; however, few studies have quantified this relationship at the continental scale. In order to evaluate the change imposed by this shift in land use and land cover, the observation based 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) was used to quantify the climatological differences in temperature and humidity between areas of natural prairie and agriculture over the 20th century. An additional analysis used the Observation Minus Reanalysis (OMR) technique to isolate the surface climate signal found in the 20CR. We find indications that changing land cover had an impact on climate. However, using observation based data returned no evidence of a statistically significant change due to the small land use and land cover change (LULCC) signal within the larger climate noise. Therefore, an idealised modelling experiment was undertaken using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2-LM2 atmosphere-land model to remove these other influences. This experiment compared the results of two model simulations: one where the entirety of the prairie was preserved as grassland (GRASS), and another where the entire prairies had been converted into an agricultural area (AGRIC). Relative to GRASS, the AGRIC simulation has reduced surface albedo and root zone depth, and increased roughness length over the prairies, which collectively cause a significant summer drying. This occurs when the shallower rooting zone limited potential evapotranspiration (PET) forcing the additional energy created by turbulent mixing and a lower surface albedo to warm the air, surpassing PET and reaching drier conditions faster. While not conclusive, the results presented in this thesis represent a step towards filling the gaps in understanding land-atmosphere interactions and connecting LULCC to climate.

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