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Modelling the population dynamics and viability analysis of franciscana (Pontoporia blainvillei) and Hector�s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori) under the effects of bycatch in fisheries, parameter uncertainty and stochasticitySecchi, Eduardo Resende, n/a January 2006 (has links)
Incidental mortality in fisheries, especially gillnets, is one of the most important causes of decline of many species of cetaceans around the globe. Local populations of franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei, and Hector�s dolphins, Cephalorhynchus hectori, have been subject to high levels of mortality in gillnets for several decades. This is due to a combination of extensive overlap in distribution of these coastal dolphins and large numbers of fishing nets.
Stage-specific population dynamic models (without environmental stochasticity) suggest that both species have a low potential for population growth of approximately 0.2% (95% CI: -3.7% to 4.2%) to 3.4% (95% CI: 1.6% to 6.4%) for franciscana and 0.85% (95% CI: -1.0% to 2.6%) for Hector�s dolphins. Although the two species have similar population growth rates, they result from different life history strategies. Franciscana has a relatively low adult survival rate (0.86; SD = 0.016) which is compensated by a relatively high reproductive potential. The latter is a combination of early reproduction and high fecundity. Hector�s dolphin has a low reproductive potential, which is a combination of late reproduction and low fecundity, which is probably compensated by a relatively high adult survival rate (0.92; SD = 0.02) Apparent differences in growth rate among franciscana populations are possibly due to a combination of varying population-specific reproductive potential and, in some populations, inaccuracy in parameter estimates. Inaccuracy in estimating natural survival rates is also a cause for the low growth rate of Hector�s dolphins.
The estimated low population growth rates of these species are insufficient to compensate for current levels of fishing-related mortality in some local populations, especially when environmental and/or demographic stochasticity is considered. Under these circumstances Banks Peninsula population would have a negative mean population growth rate of 0.54% (95% CI: -2.2% to 0.9%) and would decrease below its initial size in approximately 74% of the simulations. Stochasticity alone would decrease considerably the probability of the Banks Peninsula population to grow and recover from past and current high bycatch levels. Effects of stochasticity were also high for one of the franciscana stocks (i.e. stock from Franciscana Management Area II). In other areas (e.g. West Coast of the South Island; franciscana stock from FMA I) fishing effort and bycatch mortality rate seem not to be impeding population growth. Even in a stochastic environment and under current levels of fishing effort, the West Coast population and the franciscana stock from FMA I would grow at a positive rate of 0.32% (95% CI: -1.2% to 1.8%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.2%), respectively. Parameter uncertainty does not change the conclusion that immediate and extreme limitations on fishing practice and effort are necessary to increase the chances of recovery for some local populations/stocks.
Fishing effort in New Zealand is regulated by a quota system. The quota system, the low number of fishing boats and the relatively low overlap between fishing nets and dolphins are probably the reasons for the positive population growth of Hector�s dolphins from the West Coast of the South Island. On the other hand, not even the Marine Mammal Sanctuary is sufficient to avoid negative mean population growth rate of Hector�s dolphins under current levels of fishing effort off Banks Peninsula. In Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, where franciscana occurs, gillnet fisheries are not regulated. In some areas, faced with a declining fish stocks, fishermen have increased fishing effort to compensate for reduced catches, and the bycatch of franciscana has increased as a consequence. Strategies aiming at the conservation of these two species are likely to benefit other components of the ecosystem. Especially in the case of franciscana, reducing fishing effort is likely to promote the recovery of depleted fish stocks.
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Modelling the population dynamics and viability analysis of franciscana (Pontoporia blainvillei) and Hector�s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori) under the effects of bycatch in fisheries, parameter uncertainty and stochasticitySecchi, Eduardo Resende, n/a January 2006 (has links)
Incidental mortality in fisheries, especially gillnets, is one of the most important causes of decline of many species of cetaceans around the globe. Local populations of franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei, and Hector�s dolphins, Cephalorhynchus hectori, have been subject to high levels of mortality in gillnets for several decades. This is due to a combination of extensive overlap in distribution of these coastal dolphins and large numbers of fishing nets.
Stage-specific population dynamic models (without environmental stochasticity) suggest that both species have a low potential for population growth of approximately 0.2% (95% CI: -3.7% to 4.2%) to 3.4% (95% CI: 1.6% to 6.4%) for franciscana and 0.85% (95% CI: -1.0% to 2.6%) for Hector�s dolphins. Although the two species have similar population growth rates, they result from different life history strategies. Franciscana has a relatively low adult survival rate (0.86; SD = 0.016) which is compensated by a relatively high reproductive potential. The latter is a combination of early reproduction and high fecundity. Hector�s dolphin has a low reproductive potential, which is a combination of late reproduction and low fecundity, which is probably compensated by a relatively high adult survival rate (0.92; SD = 0.02) Apparent differences in growth rate among franciscana populations are possibly due to a combination of varying population-specific reproductive potential and, in some populations, inaccuracy in parameter estimates. Inaccuracy in estimating natural survival rates is also a cause for the low growth rate of Hector�s dolphins.
The estimated low population growth rates of these species are insufficient to compensate for current levels of fishing-related mortality in some local populations, especially when environmental and/or demographic stochasticity is considered. Under these circumstances Banks Peninsula population would have a negative mean population growth rate of 0.54% (95% CI: -2.2% to 0.9%) and would decrease below its initial size in approximately 74% of the simulations. Stochasticity alone would decrease considerably the probability of the Banks Peninsula population to grow and recover from past and current high bycatch levels. Effects of stochasticity were also high for one of the franciscana stocks (i.e. stock from Franciscana Management Area II). In other areas (e.g. West Coast of the South Island; franciscana stock from FMA I) fishing effort and bycatch mortality rate seem not to be impeding population growth. Even in a stochastic environment and under current levels of fishing effort, the West Coast population and the franciscana stock from FMA I would grow at a positive rate of 0.32% (95% CI: -1.2% to 1.8%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.2%), respectively. Parameter uncertainty does not change the conclusion that immediate and extreme limitations on fishing practice and effort are necessary to increase the chances of recovery for some local populations/stocks.
Fishing effort in New Zealand is regulated by a quota system. The quota system, the low number of fishing boats and the relatively low overlap between fishing nets and dolphins are probably the reasons for the positive population growth of Hector�s dolphins from the West Coast of the South Island. On the other hand, not even the Marine Mammal Sanctuary is sufficient to avoid negative mean population growth rate of Hector�s dolphins under current levels of fishing effort off Banks Peninsula. In Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, where franciscana occurs, gillnet fisheries are not regulated. In some areas, faced with a declining fish stocks, fishermen have increased fishing effort to compensate for reduced catches, and the bycatch of franciscana has increased as a consequence. Strategies aiming at the conservation of these two species are likely to benefit other components of the ecosystem. Especially in the case of franciscana, reducing fishing effort is likely to promote the recovery of depleted fish stocks.
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