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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Metodologia de previsão utilizando identificação de sistemas aplicada a séries temporais / Prediction methodology using system identification applied to time series

Bulhões, Júnio Santos 29 October 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Liliane Ferreira (ljuvencia30@gmail.com) on 2018-11-19T11:07:15Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Júnio Santos Bulhões - 2018.pdf: 4626907 bytes, checksum: 268499105ec64b2e9abf04faa47a91e2 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-11-19T11:41:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Júnio Santos Bulhões - 2018.pdf: 4626907 bytes, checksum: 268499105ec64b2e9abf04faa47a91e2 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-19T11:41:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Júnio Santos Bulhões - 2018.pdf: 4626907 bytes, checksum: 268499105ec64b2e9abf04faa47a91e2 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-10-29 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This work proposes a methodology that uses spectral analysis and system identification in order to fill gaps in time series. The methodology proposes the implementation of predictions in time series of physical and chemical variables that are related with flood areas that are collected with no frequency. It is used predictive neural network with autoregressive model and classification neural network. Collected values are extracted from the original data set in order to later test and validate the proposed methodology. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the methodology, which is able to predict the behavior of different variables using the previously recognized patterns in the time series. / Este trabalho propõe metodologia que utiliza análise espectral em conjunto com modelo de identificação de sistema para preenchimento de lacunas em séries temporais. A metodologia propõe realizar previsão em séries temporais de variáveis físicas e químicas relacionadas as inundações com frequência de coleta variável. Utiliza-se rede neural artificial de previsão com modelo autorregressivo e rede neural classificatória. Valores coletados são armazenados para posteriormente testar e validar a metodologia proposta. Os resultados alcançados demonstram a eficácia da metodologia, que é capaz de prever o comportamento de diferentes variáveis utilizando os padrões reconhecidos previamente nas séries temporais.

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