Ce travail explore la dynamique de consommation résidentielle d’électricité au Québec à l’aide de données horaires fournies par Hydro-Québec pour la période de janvier 2006 à décembre 2010. Nous considérons trois modèles autorégressifs standards en analyse des séries temporelles : le lissage exponentiel Holt-Winters, le modèle ARIMA saisonnier (SARIMA) et le modèle ARIMA saisonnier avec variables exogènes (SARIMAX). Pour ce dernier modèle, nous nous concentrons sur l’effet des variables climatiques (la température, l’humidité relative et le point de rosé et la nébulosité). Les facteurs climatiques ont un impact important sur la consommation d’électricité à très court terme. La performance prédictive intra et hors échantillon de chaque modèle est évaluée avec différents indicateurs d’ajustement. Trois horizons temporels hors-échantillon sont testés : 24 heures (un jour), 72 heures (trois jours) et 168 heures (1 semaine). Le modèle SARIMA offre la meilleure performance prédictive hors-échantillon sur 24 heures. Le modèle SARIMAX se révèle le plus performant hors-échantillon sur les horizons temporels de 72 et 168 heures. Des recherches supplémentaires seraient nécessaires pour obtenir des modèles de prévision pleinement satisfaisant du point de vue méthodologique. Mots clés : modèles de séries temporelles, électricité, lissage exponentiel, SARIMA, SARIMAX. Mots clés : modèles de séries temporelles, électricité, lissage exponentiel, SARIMA, SARIMAX / This work explores the dynamics of residential electricity consumption in Quebec using hourly data from January 2006 to December 2010. We estimate three standard autoregressive models in time series analysis: the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, the seasonal ARIMA model (SARIMA) and the seasonal ARIMA model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX). For the latter model, we focus on the effect of climate variables (temperature, relative humidity and dew point and cloud cover). Climatic factors have a significant impact on the short-term electricity consumption. The intra-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of each model is evaluated with various adjustment indicators. Three out-of-sample time horizons are tested: 24 hours (one day), 72 hours (three days) and 168 hours (1 week). The SARIMA model provides the best out-of-sample predictive performance of 24 hours. The SARIMAX model reveals the most powerful out-of-sample time horizons of 72 and 168 hours. Additional research is needed to obtain predictive models fully satisfactory from a methodological point of view. Keywords: modeling, electricity, Holt-Winters, SARIMA, SARIMAX.

This work is dedicated to the control of the accuracy of computational simulations of sound propagation and scattering. Assuming time-harmonic behaviour, the mathematical models are given as boundary value problems for the Helmholtz equation <i>Delta u+k2u=0 </i> in <i>Oméga</i>. A distinction is made between interior, exterior and coupled problems and this work focuses mainly on interior uncoupled problems for which the Helmholtz equation becomes singular at eigenfrequencies. <p><p>As in other application fields, error control is an important issue in acoustic computations. It is clear that the numerical parameters (mesh size h and degree of approximation p) must be adapted to the physical parameter k. The well known ‘rule of the thumb’ for the h version with linear elements is to resolve the wavelength <i>lambda=2 pi k-1</i> by six elements characterising the approximability of the finite element mesh. If the numerical model is stable, the quality of the numerical solution is entirely controlled by the approximability of the finite element mesh. The situation is quite different in the presence of singularities. In that case, <i>stability</i> (or the lack thereof) is equally (sometimes more) important. In our application, the solutions are ‘rough’, i.e. highly oscillatory if the wavenumber is large. This is a singularity inherent to the differential operator rather than to the domain or the boundary conditions. This effect is called the <i>k-singularity</i>. Similarly, the discrete operator (“stiffness” matrix) becomes singular at eigenvalues of the discretised interior problem (or nearly singular at damped eigenvalues in solid-fluid interaction). This type of singularities is called the <i>lambda-singularities</i>. Both singularities are of global character. Without adaptive correction, their destabilizing effect generally leads to large error of the finite element results, even if the finite element mesh satisfies the ‘rule of the thumb’. <p><p>The k- and lambda-singularities are first extensively demonstrated by numerical examples. Then, two <i>a posteriori</i> error estimators are developed and the numerical tests show that, due to these specific phenomena of dynamo-acoustic computations, <i>error control cannot, in general, be accomplished by just ‘transplanting’ methods that worked well in static computations</i>. However, for low wavenumbers, it is necessary to also control the influence of the geometric (reentrants corners) or physical (discontinuities of the boundary conditions) singularities. An <i>h</i>-adaptive version with refinements has been implemented. These tools have been applied to two industrial examples :the GLT, a bi-mode bus from Bombardier Eurorail, and the Vertigo, a sport car from Gillet Automobiles.<p><p>As a conclusion, it is recommanded to replace the rule of the thumb by a criterion based on the control of the influence of the specific singularities of the Helmholtz operator. As this aim cannot be achieved by the <i>a posteriori</i> error estimators, it is suggested to minimize the influence of the singularities by modifying the formulation of the finite element method or by formulating a “meshless” method.<p> / Doctorat en sciences appliquées / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished