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published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / Transport Policy and Planning / Master / Master of Arts in Transport Policy and Planning

It is observed that transit riders are responding to service changes while transit planning is responding to ridership changes, or that transit patronage and service supply are highly interrelated. It is also noticed that transit riders transfer from route to route, the introduction of new service may draw some riders from the existing routes, which implies transit patronage on a route is also affected by other parallel and intersecting routes. An analytic tool is needed to examine these complex relationships in the transit system. This study has developed a quantitative model by incorporating these interactions into a simultaneous system. The simultaneity of transit demand, supply and the interrelationship of inter-route effects are addressed in a three-equation simultaneous model: a demand equation, a supply equation and an equation for competing routes. These equations are estimated simultaneously using the three-stage-least-squares estimation method. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by the time of a day, and by the inbound and outbound directions. Data from Portland, Oregon metropolitan area are used as an extended case study. The socioeconomic and demographic data are allocated to an one-quarter-mile distance service area around a transit route by utilizing the technique of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The data allocation significantly reduces the measurement error. Inter-route relationships are also identified using GIS. The estimation results show that a service change on a route increases the transit patronage on that route, but it also decreases the ridership on its competing routes, so the net effect of that service improvement is smaller than the ridership increase on the subject route. A conventional single equation model under-estimates the ridership responses on the subject route, and over-estimates the net patronage response. This study is the first research to discuss the net effects of a service change at the route level. The model can be implemented for system-level policy analysis and route-level service and land use planning. It is especially useful for "what-if" scenario analysis at the route level to simulate the ridership impacts of service and land use changes.

This dissertation contends that the decision of the Municipality of Metropolitan Toronto and the Toronto Transit Commission to introduce a grid of frequent, all-day bus service on arterial roads in newly built, low-density suburban neighbourhoods is responsible for Toronto’s unique ability to attract suburbanites to transit. Toronto’s approach is in stark contrast with the that followed in most North American urban regions, where auto-oriented suburban built form is considered to make transit unviable, and therefore transit service outside the urban core is typically very limited. The Ontario government’s establishment of metropolitan government in the Toronto region in 1953, at a time when transit remained a popular mode of transportation, encouraged and empowered suburban politicians to pressure the TTC to expand service to their constituencies. In response, the TTC developed a plan for suburban bus service that succeeded, in terms of ridership and financial performance, far beyond its expectations. This success, in turn, encouraged further service improvements and government support for transit, producing a virtuous spiral of service increases, ridership gains, and government funding increases, which stood in sharp contrast with the vicious spiral of ridership declines, service cuts, and fare hikes that plagued transit systems in most North American cities. This dissertation is the product of archival research in Canada and the United States, as well as a series of interviews with policymakers, planners, and activists who were engaged during the period. The Toronto model offers valuable lessons for transportation planning across North America. It demonstrates that it is possible to achieve high transit mode share, even in areas that are not designed as explicitly transit-oriented communities. This means that it is possible to shift trips away from the automobile without needing to entirely rebuild the suburban neighbourhoods where most North Americans reside, an unachievable goal on the timeline required to avert catastrophic climate change. It also demonstrates that the benefits of large capital investments in rapid transit and rail projects will only be maximized when paired with operating funding to ensure that the new infrastructure is embedded in a broader network of frequent local transit service.