Currently, major power systems almost invariably operate under interconnected conditions to transfer power in a stable and reliable manner. Multi-area reliability evaluation has thus become an invaluable tool in the planning and operation of such systems. Multi - area reliability evaluation is typically done by considering equivalent tie lines between different areas in an integrated power system. It gives approximate results for the reliability indices of a power system as it models each of the areas as a single node to which are connected the entire area generation and loads. The intratransmission lines are only indirectly modeled during the calculation of equivalent tie lines' capacities. This method is very widely used in the power industry, but the influence of the various approximations and assumptions, which are incorporated in this method, on reliability calculations has not been explored. The objective of the research work presented in this thesis is the development of a new method called Composite system based multi - area reliability model, which does multi - area reliability evaluation considering the whole composite system. It models the transmission system in detail and also takes into account the loss sharing policy within an area and no - load loss sharing policy among the areas. The proposed method is applied to standard IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System (RTS) and the traditional equivalent tie-line method is applied to the multi-area configuration of the same test system. The results obtained by both the methods are analyzed and compared. It is found that the traditional model, although having some advantages, may not give accurate results.

The North European power system (Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) is facing changes in its electricity production. The increasing share of intermittent power sources, such as wind power, makes the production less predictable. The decommissioning of large plants, for environmental or market reasons, leads to a decrease of production capacity while the demand can increase, which is detrimental to the power system reliability. Investments in interconnections and new power plants can be made to strengthen the system. Evaluating the reliability becomes essential to determine the investments that have to be made. For this purpose, a model of the power system is built. The power system is divided into areas, where the demand, interconnections between areas, and intermittent generation are represented by Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDF); while conventional generation plants follow a two-state behaviour. Imports from outside the system are set equal to their installed capacity, with considering that the neighbouring countries can always provide enough power. The model is set up by using only publicly available data. The model is used for generating numerous possible states of the system in a Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate two reliability indices: the risk (LOLP) and the size (EPNS) of a power deficit. As a power deficit is a rare event, an excessively large number of samples is required to estimate the reliability of the system with a sufficient confidence level. Hence, a pre-simulation, called importance sampling, is run beforehand in order to improve the efficiency of the simulation. Four simulations are run on the colder months (January, February, March, November, December) to test the reliability of the current system (2015) and of three future scenarios (2020, 2025 and 2030). The tests point out that the current weakest areas (Finland and Southern Sweden) are also the ones that will face nuclear decommissioning in years to come, and highlight that the investments in interconnections and wind power considered in the scenarios are not sufficient to maintain the current reliability levels. If today’s reliability levels are considered necessary, then possible solutions include more flexible demand, higher production and/or more interconnections. / Det nordeuropeiska elsystemet (Sverige, Finland, Norge, Danmark, Estland, Lettland och Litauen) står inför förändringar i sin elproduktion. Den ökande andelen intermittenta kraftkällor, såsom vindkraft, gör produktionen mindre förutsägbar. Avvecklingen av stora anläggningar, av miljö- eller marknadsskäl, leder till en minskning av produktionskapaciteten, medan efterfrågan kan öka, vilket är till nackdel för kraftsystemets tillförlitlighet. Investeringar i sammankopplingar och i nya kraftverk kan göras för att stärka systemet. Utvärdering av tillförlitligheten blir nödvändigt för att bestämma vilka investeringar som behövs. För detta ändamål byggs en modell av kraftsystemet. Kraftsystemet är uppdelat i områden, där efterfrågan, sammankopplingar mellan områden, och intermittent produktion representeras av fördelningsfunktioner; medan konventionella kraftverk antas ha ett två-tillståndsbeteende. Import från länder utanför systemet antas lika med deras installerade kapaciteter, med tanke på att grannländerna alltid kan ge tillräckligt med ström. Modellen bygger på allmänt tillgängliga uppgifter. Modellen används för att generera ett stort antal möjliga tillstånd av systemet i en Monte Carlo-simulering för att uppskatta två tillförlitlighetsindex: risken (LOLP) och storleken (EPNS) av en effektbrist. Eftersom effektbrist är en sällsynt händelse, krävs ett mycket stort antal tester av olika tillstånd i systemet för att uppskatta tillförlitligheten med en tillräcklig konfidensnivå. Därför utnyttjas en för-simulering, kallad ”Importance Sampling”, vilken körs i förväg i syfte att förbättra effektiviteten i simuleringen. Fyra simuleringar körs för de kallare månaderna (januari, februari, mars, november, december) för att testa tillförlitligheten i nuvarande systemet (2015) samt för tre framtidsscenarier (2020, 2025 och 2030). Testerna visar att de nuvarande svagaste områdena (Finland och södra Sverige) också är de som kommer att ställas inför en kärnkraftsavveckling under de kommande åren. De indikerar även att planerade investeringar i sammankopplingar och vindkraft i scenarierna inte är tillräckliga för att bibehålla de nuvarande tillförlitlighetsnivåerna. Om dagens tillförlitlighetsnivåer antas nödvändiga, så inkluderar möjliga lösningar mer flexibel efterfrågan, ökad produktion och/eller fler sammankopplingar.