Japan is the largest market for U.S. forest products. Therefore, export of wood products to this country is critical to the economic life of the forest industry in the U.S. and particularly for the Pacific Northwest. Hence, economic conditions and developments in Japan may significantly affect the volume of trade for the products of concern and, in turn, the well-being of the U.S. lumber and log production-consumption system. Few studies have addressed forest product trade between the U.S. and Japan. This study is designed to determine the effect of several selected market factors on the Japanese import demand for U.S. softwood lumber and logs and to estimate the influence of these factors on Japan's future trade. A numerical model was developed incorporating these selective factors, thought to be relevant, to determine their effects on the Japanese market for the U.S. forest products. The evaluation considers the effects of variations in: Japanese income, domestic production of softwood logs in Japan, domestic prices of the products of concern, petroleum purchased by Japan, nominal interest rates in Japan, the exchange rates, and finally a weighted average of prices of the products from the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington, only). Given the available resources, two empirical time series models for each commodity were estimated by OLS technique using annual data from 1961 through 1985. The results indicate that the Japanese import demands for both products are inelastic. This finding, along with other evidence, suggests the distortion of the Japanese import demand for U.S. forest products by factors other than economic, mainly politics involved in trade restraint between the two countries. The study shows that GNP per capita, housing starts, and the interest rates in Japan, significantly affect the Japanese import demand for lumber from the U.S. Housing starts is the only significant factor in the case of the Japanese import demand for U.S. logs. In the latter case, the exchange rates and log export prices to Japan (deflated by Japan's wholesale price index), are significant only when the log linear model has been applied. / Graduation date: 1988

This dissertation creates two new theoretical tools to analyze connections between politics and environmental change. The first section develops the concept of Northern ‘shadow ecologies’ to understand the environmental impact of a Northern state on Southern resource management. A Northern shadow ecology is the aggregate environmental impact of government aid and loans; corporate investment and technology transfers; and trade, including purchasing practices, consumption, export and consumer prices, and import tariffs. After outlining Japan’s shadow ecology, the next part constructs an analytical lens to uncover salient Southern political causes of timber mismanagement. This spotlights modern patron-client links between Southern officials and private operators that debilitate state capacity to implement resource policies. Using these analytical tools, and building on extensive primary sources and more than 100 in-depth interviews, the remainder of the thesis examines the two most important factors driving commercial timber mismanagement in Indonesia, Borneo Malaysia, and the Philippines: pervasive patron-client ties between Southeast Asian officials and timber operators; and the residual and immediate environmental impact of Japan. In a continual struggle to retain power in societies with fragmented social control, Southeast Asian state leaders build potent patron-client networks that syphon state funds, distort policies, and undermine supervision of state implementors. In this setting, the state is often unable to enforce timber management rules as implementors -- in exchange for gifts, money, or security -- ignore or assist destructive and illegal loggers, smugglers, and tax evaders. Japan’s shadow ecology has expedited timber mismanagement, and left deep environmental scars that impede current efforts to improve timber management. Post-1990 Japanese government and corporate policy changes to integrate environmental concerns have marginally improved forestry ODA, and contributed to token corporate conservation projects. As well, there is now less Japanese investment, technology, and credit linked to logging. But massive timber purchases from unsustainable sources, wasteful consumption, timber prices that ignore environmental and social costs, import barriers that deplete Southern revenues, and the residual impact of past Japanese practices continue to accelerate destructive logging in Southeast Asia. Sustainable tropical timber management will require fundamental changes to Japan’s shadow ecology. It is also imperative to confront Southern political forces driving deforestation. While reforms will certainly face formidable -- perhaps insurmountable -- political and economic barriers, unless the world community tackles these issues, the remaining primary forests of Southeast Asia will soon perish.

This dissertation creates two new theoretical tools to analyze connections between politics and environmental change. The first section develops the concept of Northern ‘shadow ecologies’ to understand the environmental impact of a Northern state on Southern resource management. A Northern shadow ecology is the aggregate environmental impact of government aid and loans; corporate investment and technology transfers; and trade, including purchasing practices, consumption, export and consumer prices, and import tariffs. After outlining Japan’s shadow ecology, the next part constructs an analytical lens to uncover salient Southern political causes of timber mismanagement. This spotlights modern patron-client links between Southern officials and private operators that debilitate state capacity to implement resource policies. Using these analytical tools, and building on extensive primary sources and more than 100 in-depth interviews, the remainder of the thesis examines the two most important factors driving commercial timber mismanagement in Indonesia, Borneo Malaysia, and the Philippines: pervasive patron-client ties between Southeast Asian officials and timber operators; and the residual and immediate environmental impact of Japan. In a continual struggle to retain power in societies with fragmented social control, Southeast Asian state leaders build potent patron-client networks that syphon state funds, distort policies, and undermine supervision of state implementors. In this setting, the state is often unable to enforce timber management rules as implementors -- in exchange for gifts, money, or security -- ignore or assist destructive and illegal loggers, smugglers, and tax evaders. Japan’s shadow ecology has expedited timber mismanagement, and left deep environmental scars that impede current efforts to improve timber management. Post-1990 Japanese government and corporate policy changes to integrate environmental concerns have marginally improved forestry ODA, and contributed to token corporate conservation projects. As well, there is now less Japanese investment, technology, and credit linked to logging. But massive timber purchases from unsustainable sources, wasteful consumption, timber prices that ignore environmental and social costs, import barriers that deplete Southern revenues, and the residual impact of past Japanese practices continue to accelerate destructive logging in Southeast Asia. Sustainable tropical timber management will require fundamental changes to Japan’s shadow ecology. It is also imperative to confront Southern political forces driving deforestation. While reforms will certainly face formidable -- perhaps insurmountable -- political and economic barriers, unless the world community tackles these issues, the remaining primary forests of Southeast Asia will soon perish. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate