Motivated by a period of time in which we face historically high oil prices, this thesis analyzes to what extent oil prices actually influence inflation. By constructing a simple chart, one can see that oil price and inflation seem to have a similar pattern. However, to draw any conclusions from that is impossible. We show with econometric methods the relationship between oil prices and inflation in the case of Sweden. Sweden, as a net importer of oil, spent approximately 43.3 billion SEK on crude oil during 2004. That is 414.200 barrels of crude oil each day. Taking this into account, what would happen if the oil price suddenly increased by 10%? Considering the fact that 43.3 billion SEK is a rather large amount of money, it seems obvious that such an oil price increase should have some impact on the Swedish economy and inflation. This would occur partly through higher prices of gasoline for example, but it would occur also due to the indirect effect that companies face through higher production costs and will most likely pass on some part of that cost to the consumers. We have gathered data for oil prices and inflation for Sweden since 1981 to 2004. Together with other variables that also affect the inflation, such as money supply and interest rates, we did econometric regressions to find evidence for the relationship. We reach the conclusion that if the oil prices increase by 10%, inflation is assumed to increase with about 0.15-0.20%.

<p>Motivated by a period of time in which we face historically high oil prices, this thesis analyzes to what extent oil prices actually influence inflation. By constructing a simple chart, one can see that oil price and inflation seem to have a similar pattern. However, to draw any conclusions from that is impossible. We show with econometric methods the relationship between oil prices and inflation in the case of Sweden.</p><p>Sweden, as a net importer of oil, spent approximately 43.3 billion SEK on crude oil during 2004. That is 414.200 barrels of crude oil each day. Taking this into account, what would happen if the oil price suddenly increased by 10%? Considering the fact that 43.3 billion SEK is a rather large amount of money, it seems obvious that such an oil price increase should have some impact on the Swedish economy and inflation. This would occur partly through higher prices of gasoline for example, but it would occur also due to the indirect effect that companies face through higher production costs and will most likely pass on some part of that cost to the consumers.</p><p>We have gathered data for oil prices and inflation for Sweden since 1981 to 2004. Together with other variables that also affect the inflation, such as money supply and interest rates, we did econometric regressions to find evidence for the relationship. We reach the conclusion that if the oil prices increase by 10%, inflation is assumed to increase with about 0.15-0.20%.</p>

Un objetivo de este documento es discutir el impacto macroeconómico que un boom (o unacaída) de los precios internacionales de las materias primas de exportación tiene sobre una economíapequeña y abierta que opera en un marco de libre movilidad internacional de los capitales.Para el análisis de los efectos de este choque externo real se utiliza un modelo Mundell-Flemingconvenientemente adaptado. Se distinguen dos efectos: el cambiario, que perjudica al resto de laeconomía, y el efecto vía la demanda agregada, que estimula al resto de la economía. Se comparatambién el impacto macroeconómico de un choque externo real con el de un choque externofinanciero (cambios en la tasa de interés internacional) en una economía dolarizada y con tipo de cambio flexible. El otro objetivo de este documento es mostrar que la intervención esterilizada del banco central en el mercado cambiario puede ser una respuesta eficaz frente a los choques externos reales o financieros. Para determinar el impacto de estos distintos choques externos no solo importan las características de la estructura económica, sino también el sistema vigente de políticas monetarias y fiscales y, en particular, la naturaleza del régimen cambiario. -- One goal of this paper is to discussing the macroeconomic impact that an international commodityprices boom has in a small open economy under perfect capital mobility. A Mundell-Flemingmodel with some adaptations is used for the analysis of this real external shock. There are twoeffects: the monetary one that is a recessionary impulse, and the one that increases aggregatedemand. Also the macroeconomic impact of a real external shock is compared with the effectof a financial external shock (changes in the external rate of interest), in a dollarized economywith a floating exchange rate. The other goal of this paper is to show that central bank sterilizedintervention in the foreign exchange market can be an effective policy response to copy with realo financial external shocks. The macroeconomic impact of external shocks depends upon theeconomic structure, the monetary and fiscal policy mix, and the exchange rate regime.