M.Litt. et Phil. / The fundamental purpose of this dissertation is a descriptive analysis and theoretical evaluation of the economic implications of the completion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations on South Africa's industrial and macro-economic performance. The study is an attempt to determine the impact of lower protection on the economy in general, which industrial sectors will gain/lose and how the anti-export bias inherent in South Africa's economy be influenced. A tariff is defined as a tax imposed on commodity imports. There are several types of tariffs, for instance ad valorem tariffs, specific tariffs and composite tariffs. The rationales for levying tariffs may be solely for raising revenue, in which case the home-produced product corresponding to the import would bear on equivalent compensatory tax. However, import duties are generally applied for the purpose of carrying out a particular economic policy, and in this context may be used to serve many functions, amongst others, the improvement of the terms of trade for the country levying the duty, strategic purposes and the protection of infant industries. The anti-export bias of 2,16 for total manufacturing shows the severe bias in South African policy in favour of inward industrialisation if export promotion policies are excluded from the calculations. Even the inclusion of GEIS does not bring about policy neutrality in terms of the inward and outward orientation. GEIS reduces the anti-export bias by approximately 33 percent for manufacturing from 2,16 to 1,44. Summary Page xi Although the South African tariff structure is among the most complex in the world, the level of protection is not exceptionally high. The average statutory tariff in South Africa is 27,5 per cent, which is approximately equal to the mean for a sample of 32 developing countries for which comparable data exist. The implications of the Uruguay Round for South Africa are clear cut: the country will, as a contracting party to the GATT, have to adhere to the commitments stemming from the Uruguay Round in order to benefit from the more market-oriented international trading environment. The rationale for the overall structure of South Africa's GATT offer is the desire to encourage the manufacture of potentially competitive, higher value-added products, which are either consumer products or capital goods. Beyond this, the relative neutrality of the offer is intended to encourage specialisation in fields in which South Africa has some comparative advantage. Although the GATT agreement will cause some casualties, notably in textiles, clothing and motor assembly, the economy as a whole will benefit from trade reform. The macro-economic success of trade reform should be evaluated in terms of how well the goals of reform have been attained and at what costs to the economy. Although some short term costs in terms of employment, balance of payments and income distribution could be of some concern in managing the policy changes facing South Africa, the overall findings indicate that the positive effects of the Marrakesh Agreement provide both constraints and opportunities for South Africa's effort to grow competitive industries.

Thesis--Groningen. / At head of title: Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen. Includes index. Includes bibliographical references (p. [358]-372).

M.Comm. / International studies have indicated that a high ratio of investment relative to Gross Domestic Product (GOP) is one of the most important preconditions for achieving sustainable high economic growth. For the South African economy to achieve a high employment and economic growth rate, it requires two further important factors, namely a sustained increase in productivity and an expansion of production capacity. Poor levels of investment performance, coupled with a lack of skilled labour, are the main reasons for restricted expansion in the country's growth potential and declining job opportunities. Keynes, (1936:30) argued that employment cannot increase without investment increasing, and strongly declared that the level of investment determines the level of employment. In his analysis, Keynes (1936:30) concluded that investment is a driving force for economic growth. Investment expenditure can be divided into four categories: - infrastructural investment in the public sector;- infrastructural investment in residential construction; - business fixed investment; and - the net change in the business inventories. This study examines Gross Domestic Fixed Investment and focuses mainly on private fixed investment as a driving force for economic growth for many years, GOP growth has been declining; unemployment has increased...

M.Com. (Economics) / The primary purpose of this study is a theoretical analysis of the allocation of the primary functions of the authority, with specific reference to the distribution function in a system of fiscal federalism in South Africa. An effort is made to find an answer to the question: On what level of government should the various functions of authorities and, in particular, the distribution function, be executed? South Africa is on the threshold of a new democratic system with an interim constitutional dispensation and for this reason, existing views concerning the distribution function in South Africa were also briefly investigated. The method of research comprised a literature study. In chapter two the rationale for government functions I in other words, the allocation, distribution and stabilisation functions, are theoretically analysed. The analysis also defines the nature of collective goods and services. This definition is essential because it has to serve as a point of departure in the discussion of the spatial dimension of government functions. Since the distribution function represents the central theme of the study, this function is discussed in more detail than other functions. It appears that there are different approaches to the distribution function and that it can be implemented in numerous ways. The approaches can be classified into two theories: Firstly, there is the theory which advocates equity in the execution of the distribution function. This view requires the centralisation of authority in a system of fiscal federalism. The second theory is in favour of the promotion of decentralisation of authority on the basis of economic efficiency. In chapter three the spatial aspects of government functions are concentrated upon more specifically. The spatial aspects of the allocation function indicate that economic efficiency is promoted by effective decentralisation so that autonomous sub-authorities can accept responsibility for the provision of collective goods and services with limited geographical advantage. According to this, the national government will only be responsible for services which have a national tenor, such as defence and foreign affairs. An analysis of the stabilisation function indicates that subnational authorities cannot apply stabilisation management in an effective manner. There is considerably less consensus about the allocation of the distribution function. Various reasons exist as to why the distribution function should be vested in the central authority. The possible mobility of individuals, the necessity for the establishment of minimum standards of service and the desirability of central control over fiscal resources are the primary motivation for the execution of the distribution function to be vested in the central authority.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.

The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.

M.A. / The objective of this study is to examine the economic growth and job creation in relation to macro economic policies in South Africa since 1994 to date. Economic growth theories help to explain the economic growth problem as well as the possibility to create jobs. Since 1994, the government has introduced three economic policy programmes namely the RDP, GEAR and MTEF. However, the unemployment rate is increasing and the economic growth is still low. The aim of this study is to: demonstrate that economic growth is the driving force to job creation; analyse the human resource development; examine the international experience in relation to South Africa; critically analyse labour market development and macro economic policies; provide recommendations to employment creation.

MCom / Department of Accountany / The relationship between the Equity Market Risk Premium (MRP) and macroeconomic variables has been a subject of extensive discussion in the finance literature. The MRP is a central component of the main asset pricing models which are used to estimate the cost of equity which is mainly used in investment appraisal, performance measurement and valuation of equity assets. Past studies have identified inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate and political risk as the key macroeconomic variables that determine the size of the MRP. The test of the impact of these variables on the MRP have however been based mainly on data from developed countries and a few emerging countries. To the researcher’s knowledge, there are no studies that have investigated the impact of these macroeconomic variables on the MRP in South Africa. It is necessary to test the impact of these variables in the context of South Africa as these variables vary across countries. Using time series secondary data that was obtained from the SARB database, JSE database and World Bank database for the period 2002 to 2017, this study investigated the impact of these variables on the MRP in South Africa. A total of 192 observations per series of the inflation rate, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, political risk, JSE-ALSI and 91-days Treasury bill was used in the study. The data used were tested for possible misspecification errors that could arise from using a time series secondary data and the regression model was fitted using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. The misspecification tests and models were both implemented on STATA 15 software. The results shows that inflation rate, interest rate and foreign exchange rate have a negative impact on the MRP whilst political risk has a positive impact on the MRP. Furthermore, the result shows that the inflation rate is the only variable amongst other variable tested that has a significant influence on the MRP for the study period. The study, therefore, concludes that inflation rate has the highest impact on the MRP in the context of South Africa. The study recommends that inflation rate should be monitored and kept within its target of 3-6% amongst other variables tested in order to increase investors’ confidence in the security market and also foster economic growth. The main limitations to the study were the limited data sources and insufficient funds. / NRF