The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and provides global predictability on timescales that bridge the gap between weather and climate. The influence of the MJO on the ocean is explored with a combination of statistical analysis of observations using multivariate time series techniques, dynamical theory, and general circulation models with realistic forcing and bathymetry. The MJO is shown to have a significant and predictable influence on global sea level. Three main regions of influence are identified: (i) the equatorial Pacific and the west coast of the Americas, (ii) the Gulf of of Carpentaria, and (iii) the northeastern Indian Ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, equatorially trapped Kelvin waves are forced by MJO-related surface winds in the western Pacific and propagate eastward. These remotely forced waves then transform into coastal trapped waves that propagate poleward along the west coast of the Americas (consistent with previous work). By way of contrast, in the Gulf of Carpentaria it is shown that the connection with the MJO is due to local wind forcing through simple set-up of sea level. In the northeastern Indian Ocean, a complex sea level pattern involving equatorially trapped Kelvin waves, coastal trapped waves along Sumatra, Java and the Bay of Bengal, and reflected Rossby waves along 5.5$^\circ$N is shown to be caused by a combination of local and remote forcing by MJO-related surface winds. To examine the predictability of the MJO, and the stability of MJO variability on multidecadal time scales, the MJO index is reconstructed over the last century. The reconstructed index is verified by comparing it with independently observed environmental variables. Three predictability time scales are proposed and estimated from the MJO index. A simple forced damped harmonic oscillator model is used to explain the complex relationship amongst the predictability time scales and also gain insight into the predictability of the MJO.

Hamburg, University, Diss., 2002.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been associated with extreme precipitation events in western North America. However, the mechanisms for, and predictability of, these associations are not clear. We have examined the influence of the MJO on North Pacific - North America (NPNA) circulation and precipitation anomalies during the boreal winter. We constructed composites of MJO events during 1979-2005 determined from the Wheeler RMM1/RMM2 index of MJO activity. Our analyses of NPNA anomalies were based primarily on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set. We focused our investigations on the impacts on NPNA circulation and precipitation of: (1) the location and amplitude of the convective and subsidence components of the MJO; (2) the season of MJO occurrence; and (3) concurrent El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) events. We found that the NPNA response to the MJO is sensitive to the location of both the convective and subsidence components of the MJO, the season of MJO occurrence, and to the existence of concurrent EN or LN events. EN or LN events affect the extratropical response to the MJO by altering the equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave response to the components of the MJO. This in turn affects the anomalous extratropical wave trains initiated by the MJO, and alters the strength and location of the resulting NPNA precipitation anomalies. Our results have allowed us to identify characteristic patterns associated with the MJO that can be related to the location and intensity of extreme NPNA precipitation. MJO events are relatively persistent phenomena. Thus, increased understanding of the mechanisms by which they impact the extratropics has the potential to improve extratropical extended range forecasting. Our results provide a substantial foundation for improving forecasts of NPNA circulation and precipitation.

Submitted by Inácio de Oliveira Lima Neto (inacio.neto@inpa.gov.br) on 2016-08-29T14:31:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_alexandra.pdf: 36597358 bytes, checksum: 7e911babac6f53c21195f9c65866a6bb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-29T14:31:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_alexandra.pdf: 36597358 bytes, checksum: 7e911babac6f53c21195f9c65866a6bb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-29 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Intra-seasonal and inter-annual oscillations are responsible for part of precipitation ex- tremes during austral summer. In view of this, this study aimed to analyze the intra- seasonal variability modes on time scales of 8-24 days and 30-90 days associated with extreme events of daily precipitation over South America for 14 summer seasons, from 1998 to 2012. To achieve this we used a set of daily rainfall data from TRMM (Tropical Rainfaill Measuring Mission -NASA), stream functions and moisture fluxes obtained by NCEP Reanalysis - 2 (National Center for Environmental Prediction), with analysis of orthogonal functions, which made possible finding the three dominant modes on South America, and the Morlet wavelet transform to check for variations in the scales of 8- 24 and 30-90 days. Composite analyzes were used to assess the possible relation between the variability modes, when they operate separately and simultaneously. In parallel, we investigated possible interactions between intra-seasonal events on scales of 8-24 days during El Niño, La Nina and neutral years. The results indicated the domi- nance of intra-seasonal scales of 8-24 days on the continent compared to 30-90 days scale, especially when the events are in phase. The events operating in different pha- ses showed a weakening of the precipitation anomalies on scales 8-24 (positive) and 30-90 (negative) and when reversing the signs we note a disorganization of convection. The same is true during ENSO years. At the same time, it was found that during ENSO years the intra-seasonal scale is enhanced by the joint action of the extra-tropical and tropical wave-trains, and to the east of South America there is a predominance of intra- seasonal systems, while in the west rainfall anomalies are dominated by inter-annual variability. / As oscilações intrasazonais e interanuais são responsáveis por parte dos extremos de precipitação durante o verão autral. Diante disto, o presente trabalho teve como obje- tivo principal analisar os modos de variabilidade intrasazonais nas escalas de tempo de 8-24 dias e 30-90 dias associados aos eventos extremos de precipitação diária so- bre América do Sul durante 14 estações de verão, no período de 1998 a 2012. Para alcançar esse objetivo utilizou-se um conjunto de dados de diárias de precipitação do TRMM (Tropical Rainfaill Measuring Mission -NASA), função de corrente e fluxos de umidade obtidos pelo Reanálise - 2 do NCEP (National Centers for Environmen- tal Prediction), com análises de funções ortogonais, que possibilitou encontrar os três modos dominantes sobre a América do Sul, e a transformada de Ondeleta (Morlet) para verificar a existência de oscilações nas escalas de 8-24 e 30-90 dias. Análises de composições foram usadas para avaliar as possíveis relações entre as escalas de variabilidade, quando estas atuam isoladamente e simultaneamente. Paralelamente, buscou-se verificar possíveis interações entre os eventos intrasazonais na escala de 8-24 dias durante os anos de El Niño, La Nina e Neutro. Os resultados indicaram a predominância da escala intrasazonal de 8-24 dias sobre o continente em relação a escala de 30-90 dias, principalmente quando os eventos estão em fase. Os eventos atuando em fases diferentes mostraram um enfraquecimento das anomalias de preci- pitação nas escalas 8-24 (positiva) e 30-90 (negativa) e quando os sinais são inverti- dos, nota-se uma desorganização da convecção. O mesmo acontece durante o anos de atuação do ENOS. Ao mesmo tempo, verificou-se que durante os anos de ENOS a escala intrasazonal é intensificada pela ação conjunta do trem de ondas extratropical e tropical, e que ao leste da AS existe uma predominância dos sistemas intrasazonais, enquanto que à oeste as anomalias de precipitação são dominadas pela variabilidade interanual. Palavras-chave: Variabilidade Intrasazonal, Variabilidade Interanual, Oscilação Mad- den Julian, Teleconexão.

The impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a major source of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere, on the Indonesia Seas is investigated using satellite-derived, reanalysis and mooring data. The MJO footprint on the Indonesian Seas is evident from the surface layer into the pycnocline. In the surface, MJO air-sea heat fluxes govern the intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Within the pycnocline, the MJO reduces the transfer of the Pacific water to the Indian Ocean, the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). In addition to the ocean’s response, the oceanic feedback to the MJO is also examined. Warmer SST in the Indonesian Seas during the suppressed phase of the MJO promotes the MJO convective phase to propagate eastward over the maritime continent (MC). Intraseasonal SST variation accounts for 55 - 60% of the total non-seasonal SST variance across the Indonesian Seas. It is most energetic in Banda and Timor Seas, with its standard deviation varying between 0.4 – 0.5°C. Coupled to the MJO surface fluxes, the intraseasonal SST exhibits stronger variation in boreal winter than in summer. A slab ocean model indicates that MJO surface heat fluxes account for 69-78% of the intraseasonal SST variability. The SST increases by 1.1° - 2°C, on average, in response to intense surface heating and weak winds over the suppressed (dry) MJO phase, and then decreases by 1.8° - 2.1°C over the course of the ensuing MJO active phase that is characterized by enhanced convective cooling and westerly wind bursts. Intraseasonal variability is also significant in the Sulawesi Sea SST, but it is mostly derived from eddies and local winds. Over the period 1980 - 2012, we observe 86 significant MJO (Real-time Multi variate MJO index > 1) events occurring in the Indian Ocean, of which 51 events achieve eastward propagation (EP) over the MC, while 35 events attentuate in the eastern Indian Ocean, or show no propagation (NP) over the MC. Eastward propagation (EP) MJO events occur more frequently during La Niña years than during El Niño years. Analyses of SST across the Indonesian Seas during the suppressed phase of the MJO events indicate that the SST in Java, Banda, and Timor Seas attributed to the EP MJO events is warmer by 0.5oC that associated with the NP MJO events. The warmer SST corresponds with enhanced surface latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and low-level moisture in the atmospheric boundary layer, driven by diurnal activity. The EP MJO events are more frequent during La Niña, as the SST response to MJO events is influenced by the thermocline depth: shallower thermocline during El Niño enables cooler subsurface water under the MJO forcing to reduce SST that then attenuates MJO activity, with deeper thermocline of La Niña having the opposite outcome. Moored velocity data in Makassar Strait between 2004 – August 2011 and August 2013 – August 2015 document substantial direct impacts of the MJO on the ITF, particularly with the surface layer (< 80 m ). A composite of the along-strait velocity within the surface layer for 10 MJO events observed during the observational period exhibits strong northward velocity within days, following the peak of MJO wind stress. The MJO forces both northward along-strait pressure gradient and the resultant of northward wind stress and turbulent stress at the base of the surface layer that, together with the seasonal forcing, maintain the reduction or even reversal of the ITF southward transport on timescales of 1-3 months during boreal winter.

Intense atmospheric convection associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) significantly impacts basin-scale circulation patterns over the Pacific. We explore dynamical processes which foster changes in convection along the convergence zone. These forcings include strong moisture convergence and accumulation of wave energy in the boundary layer, as well as dynamical instability associated with moderate cross-equatorial wind bursts. A focus is applied to observing the dominant modes of variability on synoptic to intraseasonal timescales using a combination of satellite observations and NCEP reanalysis data. Accumulation of energy, due to negative stretching deformation, occurs with both tropical and extratropical modes suggesting that the SPCZ is an artifact of wide ranging modes. Signals of the dominant modes (inferred from fields of outgoing longwave radiation: OLR) are isolated using bandpass filtering techniques, which are then mapped in space and time using Principal Components from Empirical Orthogonal Function analyses. Variability of convective systems in the SPCZ is found to be significantly correlated with changes in the regional Hadley Circulation and the Pacific Walker cell. This co-variability presents the possibility of important teleconnection routes between the tropical West and East Pacific, as well as with the mid-latitude regions of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We test these interaction hypotheses by developing composites of the circulation patterns using dates of maximum convection events (regions of minimum OLR) in the SPCZ. Intensities of the large-scale circulations are measured using observations of stream function mass fluxes. Results suggest that deep convection maxima (minima) are associated with an increase (decrease) in the Walker Circulation. It is also illustrated how off-equatorial convection anomalies in the subtropical portion of the SPCZ may induce changes to the Hadley Circulation. Interactions with the zonal (Walker) and meridional (Hadley) circulations appear to have important consequences on the ability for wave energy to propagate through the tropical Pacific atmosphere. Examples include Northern Hemisphere cross-equatorial teleconnections through the Westerly Wind Duct in the upper branch of the Walker circulation and Rossby wave trains in the SPCZ, which may be partially governed by characteristics of the regional Hadley circulation.

L'Oscillation de Madden-Julian (MJO) est le principal mode de variabilité intrasaisonnière (20-90 jours) dans les tropiques. La MJO se caractérise par une perturbation de la dynamique de grande échelle et des précipitations se propageant principalement vers l'Est à une vitesse 5 m/s à l'équateur, et aussi vers le Nord en été boréal. Malgré son importance, cette perturbation est mal reproduite dans les modèles de circulation générale (MCG). Ce défaut des MCGs a été attribué en partie à un déclenchement trop fréquent du schéma de convection profonde du modèle qui préserverait trop la stabilité statique dans les tropiques et empêcherait la formation de fortes perturbations organisées de la convection et le développement de la réponse dynamique de grande échelle qui en résulte. Cette thèse a donc pour objectif d'étudier l'impact de l'inhibition de la convection sur l'état moyen et la variabilité tropicale dans le MCG LMDZ. Pour cela, deux paramètres - la fermeture et l'entraînement - d'un même schéma convectif, qui étaient initialement basés sur le profil vertical de la convergence d'humidité, ont été modifiés. Le taux entraînement du schéma modifié est proportionnel à l'humidité relative de l'environnement. Des études de sensibilité dans un modèle unidimensionnel montrent que, par rapport au schéma initial, cette modification a pour effet d'inhiber la convection dans une atmosphère sèche et de la favoriser en atmosphère humide, les précipitations deviennent donc plus rares et plus intenses. Avec ce nouvel entraînement, les simulations globales du modèle atmosphérique LMDZ présentent effectivement une plus forte variabilité tropicale de la dynamique et des précipitations à toutes les échelles de temps. Le cycle saisonnier des précipitations est aussi mieux reproduit ainsi que la propagation vers l'Est et vers le Nord des perturbations intrasaisonnières. L'ajout d'une fermeture en CAPE modifie peu ce comportement, mais accélère légèrement la propagation vers le Nord et vers l'Est de la MJO, et donne un état moyen et une variabilité un peu plus réaliste dans les tropiques. / The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of the Tropical intraseasonal variability. The MJO is characterized by a wide region of rain perturbation propagating eastward along the equator at a speed of about 5 m/s, from the Indian Ocean to the Central Pacific with a period of 20-90 days. Its boreal summer counterpart, referred as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), propagates both eastward and northward. The LMDZ atmospheric global circulation model (GCM), like most climate models, still has difficulties to represent correctly these two modes of tropical intraseasonal variability. One of the causes of this deficiency has been attributed to the lack of intense rain events organized at large scale. If the convection is triggered too easily in a GCM, the convective instability cannot accumulate in a column and trigger an organized convection at a basin scale. This thesis consisted in testing the role of several ways of inhibiting the convection in the simulation of the MJO in the LMDZ GCM. For this purpose, we have first evaluated the impact of entrainment and closure assumptions of the convective scheme on the structure of the atmospheric column using a 1D model and on the tropical variability using the LMDZ GCM. An entrainment that is dependant on the relative humidity of the environment has been implemented in the Tiedtke (1989) convective scheme. The new entrainment inhibits the convection in a dry environment and promotes the convection in a humid environment. This favours strong ascents and subsidence and consequently increases the variance of precipitation at all time scales. The new closure, based on the convective instability (CAPE) instead of the moisture convergence, decreases the occurrence of strong rain events and gives a more realistic mean state. The east-west ratio is increased at intraseasonal scale but it is not sufficient to organise correctly the eastward propagation related to the MJO. The seasonal cycle of the tropical precipitation over India is however improved. The LMDZ is able to reproduce correctly the signature of the northward propagation of the BSISO with a period of 40 days in Boreal Summer. We have shown, with A Local Mode Analysis (LMA), that the new entrainment produces intraseasonal perturbations related to the northward propagation of the BSISO which are more reproducible and more organized on the northern Indo-Pacific region.

The continental shelf on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula is a region of substantial climate and ecosystem change. The Long Term Ecological Research project at Palmer Station has been sampling and studying the shelf ecosystem and physical environment since 1990. This dissertation seeks to improve our understanding of the subtidal and intraseasonal (hereafter defined together as 3-100 days) circulation on the neighboring continental shelf and is particularly motivated by the aims of the project to understand (1) how lateral transports of scalar parameters such as heat affect the vertical stratification and (2) how coastal canyon heads are linked to the larger-scale shelf circulation and why they are such ecologically productive environments. In this dissertation we study: (1) the origin and mixing of mesoscale eddies as agents of heat transport and stirring; (2) the spatial coherence of shelf-scale barotropic velocity fluctuations, their origin through flow-topography interaction with Marguerite Trough Canyon, and their associated heat transports; and (3) the wind-driven dynamics of the long-shore flow manifested through coastal trapped waves and their ability to both induce upwelling at a coastal canyon head and to modulate isopycnal depth at the continental shelf-break. This work takes an observational approach, utilizing the rare and expansive data set afforded by the long-term sampling program including shipboard CTD and ADCP profiles, moored current meter time series, and CTD profiles from an autonomous underwater vehicle.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon detected as anomalies in zonal winds, convection and cloudiness. This perturbation has a definitive timescale of about thirty to sixty days, allowing its signal to be extracted from background data. The Madden-Julian Oscillation originates over the western Indian Ocean and generates a convective region which moves east along the equatorial region. This perturbation is thought to contribute to the timing and intensity of the eastern hemisphere monsoons, the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation and tropical storms and cyclones. The current understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is that it restricts the bulk of its' influence to the tropics, however some evidence suggested that the impact is more extensive. Analysis of about 30 years of data showed significant modulation of rainfall by the equatorial passage of the MJO. The real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation Index was used to estimate the location and amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and forms the basis of the basic rainfall prediction tool developed. The method developed here clearly linked the low latitude passage of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with suppressed and enhanced rainfall events in the Australasian region and beyond. A rudimentary forecasting capability at the intraseasonal time scale has been developed suitable for assisting Australian agricultural sector. A subsequent and independent analysis of global mean sea level pressure anomalies provided evidence of teleconnections between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and higher latitude atmospheric entities. These anomalies confirm the existence of teleconnections capable of producing the rainfall pattern outputs. The MJO is strongly influenced by the season. However the seasonally dependant analysis of rainfall with respect to the Madden Julian Oscillation conducted was inconclusive, suggesting aspects of the MJO influence still require clarification. Considering the importance of rainfall variability to the Australian agricultural sector the forecasting tool developed, although basic, is significant.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2000. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 130-136).