In recent years, many alternative models of the substorm process have been proposed to explain different aspects of this magnetospheric phenomenon. Some features in these competing models are compatible while others, such as the nature and location of substorm onset, remain controversial. The objective of this thesis is to assess the viability of the ballooning instability as a mechanism for initiating substorms. A review of the history and development of magnetospheric substorm research as well as a review of substorm models is presented. In these models, the crosstail current disruption responsible for the onset of the expansion phase is usually ascribed to the onset of some microinstability. An alternative triggering mechanism is a macroscopic magnetohydrodynamic instability such as the ballooning instability. To derive a threshold condition for the ballooning instability, a simplified magnetotail geometry with cylindrical symmetry near the equatorial plane is assumed. In such circumstances, the torsion of the magnetic field lines is zero and they can be characterised by their curvature. The hydromagnetic equations with isotropic pressure are linearised to find the dispersion relation. This leads to a threshold condition which depends on the pressure and magnetic field intensity gradients. In order to obtain realistic numerical results for the threshold condition, a quasistatic, self-consistent, two-dimensional numerical model of the magnetotail during conditions typical of substorm growth phase is used. The model involves solving the Grad-Shafranov equation with appropriate boundary conditions. It provides time-dependent magnetospheric magnetic field configurations that are characterised by the development of a minimum in Bz in the equatorial plane. Calculations of the detailed configuration of the magnetotail during onset allow an estimate of the instability criterion. In a model which does not allow an increase of pressure with radius, it is found that the magnetotail is not unstable to ballooning. Part of this work has been presented at a conference, viz.: Dormer, L.A. and A.D.M. Walker, Investigation of local MHD instabilities in the magnetotail using a two-dimensional magnetospheric convection model. Poster presented at the 39th annual South African Institute of Physics conference, University of Bophuthatswana, 1994. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, 1995.

Solar transient eruptions are the main cause of interplanetary-magnetospheric disturbances leading to the phenomena known as geomagnetic storms. Eruptive solar events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are currently considered the main cause of geomagnetic storms (GMS). GMS are strong perturbations of the Earth’s magnetic field that can affect space-borne and ground-based technological systems. The solar-terrestrial impact on modern technological systems is commonly known as Space Weather. Part of the research study described in this thesis was to investigate and establish a relationship between GMS (periods with Dst ≤ −50 nT) and their associated solar and interplanetary (IP) properties during solar cycle (SC) 23. Solar and IP geoeffective properties associated with or without CMEs were investigated and used to qualitatively characterise both intense and moderate storms. The results of this analysis specifically provide an estimate of the main sources of GMS during an average 11-year solar activity period. This study indicates that during SC 23, the majority of intense GMS (83%) were associated with CMEs, while the non-associated CME storms were dominant among moderate storms. GMS phenomena are the result of a complex and non-linear chaotic system involving the Sun, the IP medium, the magnetosphere and ionosphere, which make the prediction of these phenomena challenging. This thesis also explored the predictability of both the occurrence and strength of GMS. Due to their nonlinear driving mechanisms, the prediction of GMS was attempted by the use of neural network (NN) techniques, known for their non-linear modelling capabilities. To predict the occurrence of storms, a combination of solar and IP parameters were used as inputs in the NN model that proved to predict the occurrence of GMS with a probability of 87%. Using the solar wind (SW) and IP magnetic field (IMF) parameters, a separate NN-based model was developed to predict the storm-time strength as measured by the global Dst and ap geomagnetic indices, as well as by the locally measured K-index. The performance of the models was tested on data sets which were not part of the NN training process. The results obtained indicate that NN models provide a reliable alternative method for empirically predicting the occurrence and strength of GMS on the basis of solar and IP parameters. The demonstrated ability to predict the geoeffectiveness of solar and IP transient events is a key step in the goal towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.