Since vonNeumann and Morgenstern made their contributions, the expected utility criterion (EUC) has been the most accepted criterion in decision theory. Following their axiomatic approach justifying EUC, several other studies have been made suggesting the same criterion but under slightly different axiomatic systems. However, critics have found several simple decision problems (called paradoxes) which seem to contradict the conclusions of EUC; that is, the paradoxes contradict one or more of the axioms made to support EUC. The criticisms are based on empirical studies made in regard to the paradoxes. It is not always obvious, however, which axiom(s) is not accepted, since each approach to EUC gives a set of sufficient rather than necessary assumptions for EUC to hold. In Part I of the thesis a set of axioms which are necessary for EUC to hold is specified. Each of these axioms contains a basic assumption of a decision maker's behaviour. Therefore by considering the paradoxes in terms of these axioms, a better understanding is obtained with regard to which properties of EUC seem to be contradicted by the paradoxes. The conclusion of this study shows that most people contradict EUC because it does not differentiate between a "known" risk and an "unknown" risk. In Knight's terminology, there is a distinction between decision making under risk and uncertainty. Most empirical studies show that these differences are of such substantial proportions that there is a questionable justification for using the expected utility criterion for decision making under uncertainty. Although many alternatives to EUC for decision making under uncertainty exist, there are very few criteria for decision problems which fall between risk and uncertainty, that is, partial risk problems. Those existing are of an ad hoc nature. As a normative theory the EUC is far superior to any of these criteria in spite of its lack of distinction between risk and uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis an alternative normative criterion is suggested for decision making under partial risk and uncertainty. As an extension of EUC, this criterion distinguishes between risk and uncertainty. This theory expands on Ellsberg's suggestion that "ambiguity" influences one's preference among a set of alternatives. In this extension a more precise definition of "ambiguity" is needed and one is suggested here as a relation on the inner and outer measure of an event. The extension of EUC is then obtained by considering a more general set function, termed P-measure, which would depend on a set's ambiguity rather than a probability measure on the sets of rewards. It is concluded by an axiomatic development that the P-measure must be a non-negative mono-tonic set function which is not necessarily additive. It is also shown that the standard paradoxes related to paradoxes based on "known" versus "unknown" probabilities may be explained by this method and would therefore suggest an alternative to EUC for decision making under partial risk and uncertainty. / Business, Sauder School of / Unknown

An outline of the essential steps needed in ground water exploration is given. Since drilling for ground water involves a lot of uncertainty, the main concepts of Bayesian decision theory are briefly reviewed. Three models for analyzing ground water decision problems are developed with an emphasis on the well-owner's utility or desirability to actually venture to invest on a water-drilling project. Finally, use of the decision models is Illustrated by applications to a) Ryder Lake District (in British Columbia) - an area where water supply is a problem, with the only source being from underground; and to b) Inches Creek study area where approximately 4500 gallons per minute of ground water is needed for salmon enhancement facilities. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Unknown

Groupthink is a theory concerning decision making developed by Janis (1972) on a case study basis. He uses the theory to explain several international fiascoes such as the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. Highly cohesive, isolated groups operating in stressful circumstances, under highly assertive leaders may support the leader's position in the attempt to maintain group consensus. Experimental research reviewed by the present author is reinterpreted as not supporting the theory. Criticisms concerning the original development of the theory and the possibility of obtaining disconfirming evidence are outlined. The present experiment obtained for subjects 192 staff members from government and corporate organizations. Leadership style, cohesiveness and stress were manipulated to simulate the groupthink conditions. The four-person groups attempted to develop solutions to two current social problems: (1) Canadian immigration, and (2) capital punishment. The sessions were taperecorded and subjects were given post-experimental questionnaires. The questionnaires provided information for manipulation checks and the attempt to observe specific symptoms of groupthink. The audio-tapes were rated by two independent observers for the quality of the decision making discussions. The proposed solutions (in transcript form) were rated for their quality by experts from Immigration and law. Groupthink theory was not supported by the analyses at the various levels. The independent variable manipulations were moderately successful. The results indicated that leadership style played the dominant role in affecting both the group atmosphere and the quality of the decision making. These findings are interpreted as being consistent with earlier research on groupthink theory. It was also found that the time limitations employed in the study influenced the task oriented dimensions of the group processes It was suggested that the role of leadership may be more crucial to group-think theory than is the role of group cohesiveness. However, before reaching a decision on the validity of the groupthink theory based upon the current laboratory research, it is recommended that groupthink be tested in a fashion more appropriate to the level of analysis of the theory. / Arts, Faculty of / Psychology, Department of / Graduate

Collectivity, (a non-bureaucratic, non-hierarchical participatory-democratic organizational form) has been developed as an alternative to bureaucracy in some Western industrial societies. Such an organizational form, although existing independently of the feminist movement, is one important tool used by that movement to accomplish its goals. Collectivity has a particularly close relationship with what I have called integrative feminism, which focuses on a synthesis of feminine and masculine polarities both in society and within individuals, on a re-definition and sharing of power, and on an emphasis on the feminine sphere in order to redress the present imbalance between the masculine and the feminine in Western society. Collectivity, with its emphasis on democratization and feminization of the work process, shares many of the goals of integrative feminism. The purpose of the thesis, then, is to demonstrate the masculine nature of traditional bureaucracy and the feminine nature of collectivity, and thus the relationship between integrative feminism and collectivity. The point of view taken in this thesis is that the sexual polarization that exists throughout Western industrial society is not a natural outcome of the biological differences between the sexes, but is socially determined and therefore changeable by social means. The thesis argues that this polarization, manifested in one-sided personality development for both sexes and the division of social life into an over-valued masculine (productive) sphere and an under-valued feminine (maintenance) sphere, which emphasize different functions, characteristics and values, is destructive to human and social growth. It also argues that sexual polarization is a significant factor in the crisis the world is now facing, which involves the domination of the powerless by the powerful, domestic and international conflict, and, in the West, too-rapid growth and over-consumption. While certain limitations restrict the general application of collectivity as a universal organizational form (for example, social demands for productivity and disparity between the ideology of collectivity and the dominant ideology), it may be that elements of collectivity can be effectively combined with elements of bureaucracy in a variety of contexts. The data on which the argument is based includes the literature of feminism, organizations, and social movements; previous research done on the Vancouver Women's Health Collective; and personal experience in social movement activity. / Arts, Faculty of / Sociology, Department of / Graduate

Past research has demonstrated that individual and group judgments are subject to systematic biases. Although much effort has been devoted to the debiasing of individual judgments, no corresponding work to date has been found on the debiasing of group judgments. Complicating this research gap is the fact that group and team work is gaining increasing importance in organizational settings. The current study examines the usefulness of group support systems (GSS) in addressing two important judgment biases, namely, representativeness bias and availability bias. Representativeness bias refers to the bias incurred in posterior-probability estimation by not properly utilizing information sources such as base rate. Availability bias occurs when events of higher availability to the memory are correspondingly judged as occurring more frequently. The formation of a judgment is seen from the perspective of an information integration process. Two orthogonal dimensions of information integration -- interpersonal and intrapersonal -- are involved in group judgments. Interpersonal information integration concerns the aspect of information sharing among group members, and can be supported with the electronic communication channel of GSS. Intrapersonal information integration deals with the information processing capacities and capabilities of individuals, and is supportable using cognitive-support tools of GSS. A laboratory experiment with a 2x2 factorial design was conducted. One hundred and twenty subjects took part in the experiment. They were randomly allocated to 40 groups. Two experimental tasks, designed to examine the two judgment biases of interest, were solved by each group. Data pertaining to both processes and outcomes were collected and analyzed. Representativeness bias was reduced by the use of cognitive support, in the form of a problem representation tool. Groups with the problem representation tool made fewer references to diagnostic information versus base rate, leading to the use of more correct strategies which combined these two information sources. The use of the problem representation tool was found to be responsible for causing this chain of events. On the other hand, electronic communication did not lead to a similar change in the pattern of group processes, and, correspondingly, did not reduce the representativeness bias. Although electronic communication is capable of improving the interpersonal aspect of information integration, the representativeness bias is primarily a result of cognitive limitations, and benefits little from improved communication among group members. Availability bias was reduced by both cognitive support and communication support. Cognitive support, in the form of electronic brainstorming, increased the information search scope of issues, especially those issues of relatively low availability to the memory. Electronic communication allows parallel input and has a lower social presence than verbal communication. These features helped to reduce the extent of groupthink and widened the range of alternative solutions proposed. Some interaction effects were observed on group members’ perceptions of the group process. For example, communication medium had an effect on group members’ satisfaction in groups without cognitive support, but not those with cognitive support. Correspondingly, cognitive support affected some perceptual variables in verbally-communicating groups, but not electronically-communicating groups. Examples of such effects include an increase in perceived socio-emotional behavior and perceived informal leadership. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The dissertation investigates some important aspects of managerial decision making under conditions of uncertainty. In the last three decades two prominent general approaches have evolved to deal explicitly with risk in managerial decisions. They are: (1) the central tendency-dispersion trade off approach, and (2) expected utility analysis. The first task undertaken in this investigation is to integrate these two approaches. This is accomplished by identifying those situations in which decision rules obtained by either approach are equivalent. Once equivalence between the two basic approaches to decision making under uncertainty is established, the focus shifts to the extension of these decision theories into situations involving multi-attribute outcome spaces. In particular, stochastic dominance rules for multivariate outcome distributions are developed. Two applications of stochastic dominance criteria are then presented, illustrating the relevance of the approach to theory development and management of resource systems. The first illustration demonstrates the application of stochastic dominance to portfolio diversification problems. Several results are obtained describing the sensitivity of optimal mixes with respect to changes in opportunities for investment. The second illustration demonstrates the role stochastic dominance criteria can play in ecosystem policy analysis. A methodology of stochastic dominance policy screening for forest management systems is developed and applied. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The problem of selecting appropriate mathematical models for use in studying hydrological phenomena has created a situation in which the choice of suitable models by hydrologic practitioners has become exceedingly complex. The extensive comments in the literature indicate that neither the traditional system of technical journals nor the more modern computer -based retrieval schemes have really solved the problem. Further examination shows that similar problems have arisen in many fields, hence a well organized attack on the specific problem of hydrologic model choice can have a more general application. The present problem is identified as a requirement to codify and make accessible to users information in a more directly user oriented format. The problem of model choice arises at several levels, ranging from decision on what fundamental structure to use, to choice of parameters, and on to model calibration and validation. This paper is focused on a scheme to aid in model structure choice. The essential ingredients of model structure choice, and indeed of many choice processes, are extracted and embedded in a generalized set theoretic mathematical notational framework in order to give some insight into the nature of the problem. Within this framework the specialized features of the model choice problem are analyzed, and a specialized model is developed for assisting in model choice and all problems similarly situated. These considerations lead to the development of a finite vector of objective statements with codified responses prepared by a panel of qualified researchers who are willing and able to construct the essential information in a user oriented format. It is required that the panel not only couch their information in objective oriented terms but that they also generate value judgments for the individual components. In this way, those using the system can take advantage of the expert opinions embedded in the model while, at the same time, tailoring the choice to meet their own specific needs and aspirations. This results in what is defined as a mathematical CHOICEMODEL. The implementation of a system for interactive computation of the CHOICEMODEL is described in detail, and the associated computer programs are presented in appendices. A detailed instruction manual is given, and the implementation of the method is illustrated by an easily understood model of the ingredients of the problem of selecting an 8 -track stereo tape deck for home use. The plan is outlined whereby hydrologic choice models can be developed within the CHOICEMODEL system by a selected panel of expert EVALUATORs.

FRAGMENTS OF ENCOUNTERS is an experimental interactive performance project operating within a 'practice as research' (PaR) paradigm-defined as a continually emergent and open-ended process. The participation and interaction of the audience and the feedback received from lecturers and fellow students were central to the development of this research and are integrated in my work. Description of this feedback and its impact will be visible throughout this paper. I will be engaging with my research through the lens of two performances, fragments of encounters 1 & 2, which act as embodiments to my research. The work(s) is a narrative about lives relieved through memory and whose re-narration gives rise to a new present time-that of the narrative, which is the performance. The subject of my research is fragment(ation) seen through the prism of memory, however, not as a main subject but close to Henri Bergson's shining points, round which other subjects 'form a vague nebulosity' (2002:171). The making of this project began in the street; from my interaction with people of different ages and from different socio-political and cultural realities. These encounters make up a personal audio archive of oral interviews recorded, which serves as the source material for my project. The recorded material are life-fragments-memories of the people interviewed and fragments of my own. Overlapping with Herman Parret's (1988) vision, for whom 'life' is a narrative and the narration time is an 'invented' time, the archive I present in my practice is a 'construct', and the re-fragmentation of the fragments of memories in the work opens a field of possibilities of interpretation. Some of these possible reinterpretations are actualised at each re-narration. This in turn opens new interpretations, possibilities or actualisations. By fragmentation and re-narration a mosaic of fragments-memories originate, which are in effect re-narratives... ad infinitum. In the same time, the possibilities that remained unactualised, not narrated, but which are virtual real, amplify the state of tension and uncertainty provoked by fragmentation, which in the end can lead to chaos.

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between personality and certain characteristics of decision-making behavior in a modified two-choice probability learning situation. More specifically, this study addresses itself to the following questions: (1) Can personality correlates of the decision-making process be demonstrated? (2) Are personality factors related to individual differences in maximizing tendency, risk-taking, and decisiveness? (3) If such relationships, exist, who do they fit into the framework of existing decision-making theory?