Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, February 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 227-239). / Technology plays an important role in dealing with air pollution and other environmental problems faced by developing and developed societies. This research examines if technological solutions alone, such as end-of-pipe and process control technologies, can achieve substantial and sustained emissions reduction from the industrial sector in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). Environmental standards for most of the criteria pollutants have frequently been violated in the MCMA. Severe air pollution in the MCMA, and the roles of point and area sources, particularly industrial sector, are the prime motivating factors for this research. Industrial sources of air pollution play a significant role in aggravating the air pollution problem in the MCMA. This research focuses on a 25-year horizon for socio-economic growth of the MCMA, and its implications on industrial energy demand, and pollutant emissions. I develop a simulation model to estimate industrial energy demand and emissions from the MCMA industrial sector. The model incorporates industrial growth rate, changes in the structure of industry and energy intensity, pollution control technologies, fuel-switching, technological progress, etc. I find that the level of industrial activity, driven by the macroeconomic environment, plays a significant role in shaping the long-term industrial air-pollution trajectory in the MCMA. I use two cost measures for evaluating cost-effectiveness of various strategies. First, the direct cost, which includes capital, operation & maintenance cost. Second, the policy cost includes direct cost and the cost of foregone production due to policy of deindustrialization. / (cont.) Performance of a strategy is highly dependent on which measure of cost is chosen for the decision-making process. The abatement strategies which look attractive when only capital cost of the control technologies and investment in renewal of the production stock is considered, are no longer preferred when the policy cost is used. When only direct cost is considered, deindustrialization dominates the list of cost- effective options. However, when total policy cost of options is considered, reducing the structure adjusted energy intensity (SAEI) emerges as most dominant option. Further, I use a sectoral abatement approach to look at.the cost-effectiveness and estimate the potential cost savings from market-based regulatory instruments in achieving emission reductions. I find that the savings from using flexible, market-based mechanisms are large enough to warrant a serious consideration in environmental policymaking to achieve air-pollution abatement goals. On basis of the scenario analysis, I conclude that technology options alone are not sufficient to meet the industrial air pollution abatement goals in the MCMA. However, an aggressive implementation of technology and policy options can result in achieving sustained and substantial emissions reduction. The structural shift from high energy intensity industries to low energy intensity industries, and deindustrialization, moving the industrial activity away from the MCMA, should form an integral part of the policy making process. The current institutional framework in the MCMA to manage the environment is not geared to integrate the technology and policy options. / (cont.) A paradigm shift -- from environmental policymaking for industrial sector to industrial-environmental policymaking -- is needed for attaining substantial and sustained emissions reduction, so that policy options such as deindustrialization and structural shift can be incorporated in the environmental policy making for the industrial sector. / by Samudra Vijay. / Ph.D.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2000. / Also available online at the MIT Theses Online homepage <http://thesis.mit.edu>. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 64-67). / This thesis focuses on an analysis of strategy in the prescription drug industry. For prescription drug companies, the ultimate consumers are patients, but intermediate customers are physicians. Because of regulations and the particular decision making process of choosing pharmaceuticals, the marketing activity of drug companies have focused on physicians and introduced their products to them. However, because of deregulation, the emergence of health maintenance organizations (HMOs), which aim to reduce health care costs, the value chain of prescription drug industry has been changing. Accordingly, prescription drug companies have been re-evaluating the traditional value chain of the industry. They have to invest in a more important part, and to establish a new business model. This paper will focus mainly on a prescription drug market, discussing a new value chain and its demand for change. This paper explains the increasing need for direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising, which includes information technology and e-commerce, in contrast to the industry's traditional marketing. / by Yoshihito Takahashi. / S.M.M.O.T.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-108). / Using Michael Porter's framework for the competitiveness of the nations and Professor Michael Cusumano's theory on the orientation of the software companies toward services, I analyzed the country of Colombia's software industry to elaborate a diagnosis of current conditions and to generate some strategies for the Government and for the business sector using diagrams of dynamic systems. Keeping in mind that Colombia has significant human capital, success in this type of industry is likely, not only because the industry is highly dependent on human talent; but also because seeing the reality and determining that the number of qualified people is not very large, the country should create aggressive strategies to increase the number of people qualified for the industry. In the short term, it should emphasize the information technology (IT) services sector taking advantage of its strengths and looking for specific market niches. For the medium term it should look for software products where Colombia has a competitive advantage. / (cont.) Studies the Government is conducting to identify industries favorable to domestic growth could be very valuable to the software industry and could focus on the products those types of industries need. For example, Colombia could begin to analyze if it is well-suited to develop software products for the bio-fuel industry, relatively new industry, Brazil could be a great client and Colombia already has the necessary natural resources for this type of industry. / by Monica Cepero. / S.M.M.O.T.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 115-116). / The Air Force sustainment system, which includes maintenance and logistics, is facing difficult challenges. As the maintenance system is being downsized, operations tempo is increasing and private companies are entering into competition for maintenance workload. The Air Force is under intense pressure to improve maintenance performance. Attempts to change the maintenance system in a piecemeal fashion have often led to unintended consequences and global sub-optimization. High-level simulation models of the maintenance system that could illustrate critical tradeoffs could provide a valuable tool for learning, and help improve system performance in the future. This thesis uses a simple high-level simulation model to model the sustainment of a unit of C-5 aircraft. It examines high-level tradeoffs in performance and cost due to the number of aircraft, the number of spare parts, and cannibalization practices. The effects of depot repair time and the failure probability of aircraft parts are also considered. In a system like that of the Air Force sustainment system that aims to improve maintenance and logistics performance and reduce cost, yet must deal with large demand variability and must be prepared for wartime surge, cannibalization, a large number of aircraft, and a large inventory of spare parts may be necessary and may even be cost-effective. / by Luis C. Tsuji. / S.M.M.O.T.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 231-240). / The debate over a policy response to global climate change has been and continues to be deadlocked between 1) the view that the impacts of climate change are too uncertain and so any policy response should be delayed until we learn more, and 2) the view that we cannot wait to resolve the uncertainty because climate change is irreversible so we must take precautionary measures now. The objective of this dissertation is to sort out the role of waiting for better information in choosing an appropriate level of emissions abatement activities today under uncertainty. In this dissertation, we construct two-period sequential decision models to represent the choice of a level of emissions abatement over the next decade and another choice for the remainder of this century, both empirical models based on a climate model of intermediate complexity, and analytical dynamic programming models. Using the analytical models, we will show that for learning to have an influence on the decision before the learning occurs, an interaction must be present between strategies in the two decision periods. We define an "interaction" as the dependence of the marginal cost or marginal damage of the future decision on today's decision. When an interaction is present and is uncertain, the ability to learn will introduce a bias in the optimal first period strategy, relative to the optimal strategy if the uncertainty would never be reduced. In general, the bias from learning can be either in the direction of higher or lower emissions, depending on the sign of the interaction and the probability distribution over damage losses relative to abatement costs. / (cont.) We demonstrate using the empirical climate decision models that the difference between optimal emissions abatement today with and without learning is insignificant. The reason is that the IGSM, like most other climate assessment models, omit many of the most important interactions between emissions today and marginal costs or damages in the future. We show that by representing possible interactions, such as induced innovation from policy constraint or the effect of emissions growth on ocean circulation, that learning will have an influence on today's decision, often in the direction of lower emissions if we expect to learn. In general, the "wait-to- learn" is not necessarily a valid argument for delaying a climate policy that constrains emissions. / by Mort David Webster. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2007. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 255-265). / The evolution of the architecture of long-lived complex socio-technical systems have important consequences and can happen in unexpected ways. This dissertation explores this question through the study of the architectural evolution of Municipal Electric Utilities (MEUs) and their diversification into broadband services in the United States. Our research seeks answers to questions of process (why and how did this happen?), impact (what was the economic effect of this evolution?), theory (what is the phenomenon that explains this evolution?) and method (how can we study such changes?). The number of MEUs offering broadband services increased by more than 200% between 2000 and 2005, which made MEUs one of the most important providers of fiber-based broadband services in the nation. As a result, the entry of MEUs into broadband became a heavily debated policy issue at local, state, and national levels, and many laws were proposed for restricting or broadening their role in broadband. Our research provides the first evidence about the economic impact of this phenomenon for better-informed policy making. The analysis of the architectural evolution of MEUs required appropriate methods. / (cont.) We integrated the Representation Stage of the Complex Large Interconnected Open Socio-Technical (CLIOS) Process and Object Process Methodology (OPM) under a framework for system architecture analysis, and developed the CLIOS-OPM Integrated Representation Method (COIReM). COIReM' objective is to study the architectural evolution of socio-technical systems. We applied it to the evolution of MEUs using data from case study research, documentation, field research and interviews. We find that the evolution of MEUs and their entry into broadband services resulted from a process we define as Functional Emergence (FE): the process by which a new externally delivered function emerges triggered by the combined effect of technical and contextual changes affecting internal functions of a complex socio-technical system. The diversification of MEUs into broadband shows that small technological changes related to the internal functions of the system in the presence of regulatory and organizational adaptation, can stimulate the emergence of new externally delivered functions. Especially in organizations with high absorptive capacity and dynamic capabilities, these new functions can become sources of strategic diversification. The inability to understand these dynamics can create dramatic competitive disadvantages. / (cont.) For example, in this case technical changes created significant resources that, while not being perceived as valuable by the system itself, were greatly valued and demanded by an active local customer base. The impact of this evolution was studied quantitatively using Matched Sample Estimators. Results showed that: (i) the adoption of IP-enabled services had a positive impact on the internal efficiency of MEUs, (ii) there is no evidence to support the contention advanced in some policy discussions that MEUs are subsidizing their broadband business with funds from their electric power operations, and (iii) MEUbased broadband is associated with higher growth rates in the number of local business establishments, even after adjusting for the presence of private broadband providers. These qualitative and quantitative results have important implications for policy making. We argue that the entry of MEU into broadband owes more to their nature as an electric utility than as a municipal agency. We suggest that, as result of the economies of scope between electric power and broadband services, MEUs represent a case of sustainable broadband facilities-based providers and that, given the effects in internal efficiency and local economic development, they should be exempted from state legislation preventing local governments from offering telecommunication services. / (cont.) This research makes four main contributions. First, it uncovers a new behavior of complex technological systems: small technological and contextual changes affecting internal components and functions can produce the emergence of new external functions. Second, we propose a new framework to study the architectural evolution of socio-technical systems. Third, it provided evidence that, in the case of MEUs, this behavior is observable and measurable. Finally, the thesis provides a framework with which to formulate intervening policy measures. / by Carlos Alberto Osorio-Urzúa. / Ph.D.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 73-74). / This thesis investigates the emerging market for wireless information services caused by the convergence of Internet, information and telecommunication technologies. Portals and content and application providers are now entering a market previously controlled and dominated by the wireless network providers. This thesis starts with a description of this new value chain and a discussion of the power of each of the participants. This is followed by an overview of the market size and the projections for the future, together with a description of services currently available around the world and associated business models. A case study on wireless financial services follows next, to illustrate what might happen and be available in other industries in the near future. I developed three scenarios for the wireless Internet services the next three years: ** A closed case: The Wireless Network As A Toll Road ** Status quo: Internet and Commerce Without Wires, Why The Hype? ** An open case: New Unique and Value-added Offerings Create New Markets I used interviews with leading industry expert to validate these scenarios. There was a general consensus among the experts and managers that my most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios represent the likely range of possible future outcomes. The majority believes we will move from the current closed (i.e. the pessimistic) case to the open model (i.e. the optimistic scenario) ending up somewhere close to the open case. The experts believed that the open model would eventually "win" due to technical improvements and competitive pressure. Based on this, I arrived at ten strategies for successful market penetration of wireless information services. The top three are; act quickly to gain first-mover advantages, enter into profit sharing because this is a complex and networked marketplace, and thirdly address unspoken and subtle needs. The main challenges facing the players in this market are: ** They have to share the ownership and responsibility of the customer experience ** The need for developing open standards together to fuel the growth of the market ** That the timing of the products and services must be right the first time. / by Andres Svadberg Hatloy. / S.M.M.O.T.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 68-76). / In many high technology industries, incumbents routinely find themselves loosing to new entrants as well as established competitors in the battle for leadership across successive generations of new technology. However, the demise of the incumbent is most typically associated with the entry of start-up firms particularly in settings with minimal complementary assets, few intellectual property rights and limited technical expertise. This thesis will explore a different competitive setting - the U.S. Government's unclassified satellite competitions - an arena characterized by deep technical skills, strong and lasting complementary assets and robust IP. Given these strengths, we would expect to find that incumbents would successfully win most competitions. In fact, according to newly gathered data, satellite producers for the U.S. Government have historically experienced an almost 90% loss rate in follow-on satellites competitions. This pattern is prevalent in satellite competitions undertaken by the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States Air Force (USAF) and the United Stated Navy (USN). / (cont.) The winners of these competitions are not to new entrants into the satellite business, but rather they are other established aerospace companies - suggesting that it is more than "organizational newness" that leads to success and more than age that leads to obsolescence. Anecdotal drivers of this trend abound, however, there is no systematic examination of the satellite industry and few settings in which the loss of incumbents to other large and established firms have been extensively analyzed. This thesis is an attempt to unravel the puzzling and repeated loss of incumbents to organizations that are in many ways very similar in terms of size, bureaucracy, technology etc. and yet which seem to be able to out-compete the winners of prior competitions over 90% of the time. This thesis argues that three factors drive this trend: 1. Non-incumbents leverage new architecture innovations to provide superior performance 2. Non-incumbent management encourages pursuit of architectural innovation 3. Non-incumbent optimistic bias enables aggressive bidding to win. / by Paul Scearce. / S.M.M.O.T.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 165-168). / A change in government policy can send waves of crippling impacts through the design and development of publicly funded complex engineering systems. Thus it is important for system architects and designers to understand the interaction of policy with their systems, and to strive for policy robustness in their systems. To be policy robust is to successfully pass through policy changes that might arise during the course of system development in order to bring the system into operational use. The goal of this thesis research is to enable the creation of policy robust system architectures and designs through making policy an active consideration in the engineering systems architecting and design process. Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are brought to bear on the problem using space systems as the application domain, and a process is set down through which policy can become an active consideration instead of a static constraint. Unique contributions of this thesis in the qualitative analysis of policy robust systems include new heuristics describing the interaction of policy and publicly funded engineering systems, as well as impact flow path diagrams for tracing policy interactions with technical engineering system parameters. Quantitative contributions include general relationships for the behavior of engineering system architecture sets under downward annual budget policy pressure, and the application of real options to measure the value of designing an engineering system to be policy robust to budget policy instabilities. Lastly, this research presents the first comprehensive quantification of U.S. space launch policy economic costs, and contributes relationships for estimating these costs on new space systems. / (cont.) The analysis techniques presented in this thesis for assessing and insuring policy robustness can be applied as early as the conceptualization phase of system architecting and design, and the earlier they are applied in the process, the greater the benefits that can be derived. As the architecture and system design solidify, time and opportunities are lost to tailor a system for policy robustness. / by Annalisa L. Weigel. / Ph.D.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 95-103). / The business model of selling software bundled with hardware is called the appliance model. As hardware becomes less and less expensive and open source software is being offered for free, the traditional business model of selling packaged software is being threatened. This disruption in the software industry is forcing software vendors to consider other business models such as advertising-based, transaction-based, software-as-a-service or appliance-based models in order to create additional value for customers. Most of these models have existed in variants for decades but are now gaining in popularity due to factors such as changing cost structures or the Internet as a delivery channel. This thesis analyzes the economic drivers and barriers for the appliance model for both the consumer and enterprise software industry segments. Important drivers of the appliance model for both of these sectors are hardware commoditization, open source software and vertical integration in order to capture margins. In the enterprise software segment the complexity of traditional software integration and operation including unpredictability of total cost of ownership, rising IT personnel cost and maintenance fees are driving the adoption of the appliance model. / (cont.) In the consumer software segment, ease of use, limited battery life, disintermediated distribution and prestige are important economic factors. The appliance model also has a number of economic disadvantages that hinder its adoption. Among these are the additional competencies that a company needs to build, supply chain and distribution costs, as well as inflexibility and inconvenience for the customer. Decision criteria for companies considering adopting the appliance model are also discussed. Industry examples in the consumer and enterprise software segment are examined and specific companies are used as case studies. Among these are the digital music player, digital video recorder, router and enterprise search markets. The possible implementation paths for software companies transitioning to the appliance model are proposed and the virtual appliance model as a next adoption step is discussed. / by Bettina Hein. / S.M.M.O.T.