The ice cap surrounding the Arctic Ocean has been significantly reduced during the last decades. As the ice continues to diminish the economic potential of the NSR is becoming stronger. However there are still challenges and uncertainties connected to navigation in the Arctic. Among these are the lack of marine infrastructure, the uncertainties regarding the regulations and length of the ice free season. The purpose of this master thesis is therefore to develop a transport simulation model to investigate the economic feasibility of a NSR transport system. The route has not been evaluated as a year-round substitute for the traditional route through the Suez Canal, but has been integrated with the southern passage. As a result the Northern Sea Route is only used as an alternative in the navigation season between August and the end of November. In order to investigate the feasibility of the route a case study is developed. Container cargo is evaluated as the most suitable shipping cargo; therefore the case study presents a possible container transport between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama in Japan. The shorter distance of the NSR is exploited in two ways, either by slow steaming or increasing the number of transits a year. In addition the transport systems are evaluated for 4 different ice classes, 7 different ice scenarios and a fleet consisting of 6 or 7 vessels. The transport simulation model calculates the speed and fuel consumption in ice with the use of an ice thickness-speed curve (h-v curve). The h-v curve is found by calculating the ice resistance of the vessel for variable ice thicknesses and the corresponding net thrust available to overcome this resistance. Further the model simulates the schedules and calculates the total fuel consumption for the entire fleet. The output of the model is the required freight rate (RFR) for the NSR transport systems and the Suez Canal route.The simulation results indicate that:-The optimal fleet size consist of 7 vessels-The slow steaming schedule is more profitable than the maximum transits schedule-The optimal ice class for the less severe ice scenarios are IC, while IB is better when the ice conditions harshen-All ice classes are more profitable than the SCR if the ice conditions are less severe than ice scenario 5

Measured in volume approximately 80 % of world trade is carried at sea and with just as many different actors the shipping industry acts close to a perfect market. The highly volatile nature of the industry with unexpected market fluctuations is the basis for the major decisions shipping companies are making. Especially the fleet size and mix problem in a strategic setting involving fleet changes during several planning periods as a company growth policy. This decision is therefore highly dependent on correct timing for those who want to succeed and an introduction to the shipping industry is given to state these properties. In this thesis various optimization models solving the fleet size and mix problem are presented where the best suited model structure related to the topic is chosen. This model is of deterministic nature, meaning that all input values are known, and based upon predefined routes. The decision regarding the fleet composition during several planning periods is aiming at determining an optimal fleet for a given market. The validity of the results solely relies on input data, which is highly uncertain into an unknown future. The predictions need to coincide with the real life development in order for the results to maintain its validity.Two different trades are used as cases, solved with the models presented. Some input parameters are changed and the differences are investigated. The main findings imply that only relative small changes of the input parameters resulted in very different decisions. The related loss of making the wrong decision is observed in the region of 100 – 200 million USD during three years. This large loss potential and the uncertainty related to the input parameters leads to a need for a method minimizing these effects. An approach is developed to treat uncertainties minimizing the losses by finding a robust fleet capable of handling a large set of generated future scenarios, called the “Scenario Algorithm”. The approach is divided into three main steps; the scenario generating step where development are based on historical fluctuations, a deterministic solution with the given scenario as basis and finally storing of all the solutions with a statistical analysis of the output. The algorithm is used on the two cases with two different scenario generating approaches, based on an exponential- and a continuous uniform distribution. The fleet size and mix decisions which appeared with the highest frequency were chosen, and gave a consistent estimate based on risk aversion decreasing the potential of making losses.The approaches presented in this thesis is not meant to give a correct answer on how the future will be, but help the decisions makers reduce the uncertainty connected to the strategic decision. The deterministic model give valuable information with a given scenario as input, but the model is only capable of evaluate the scenarios individually. The result found by the scenario algorithm evaluating scenarios collectively is therefore of higher value since it provide a more robust solution.

This master thesis in marine systems design is about how to assess the future uncertainty in a design setting, or as the topic puts it; semi-submersible platform design to meet uncertainty in the future operation scenarios. Central terms that will be discussed are robustness, flexibility, adaptability, and real options, so-called ilities. Also, methods for evaluation of designs in relation to ilities and future uncertainty are presented.The background for this thesis is the ever importance of a good assessment of investment projects in the offshore business in general, and more specific in relation to designs subjected to different forms of ilities. Now, more than ever, it is crucial to make the right decisions when designing an offshore construction, to ensure that an investment is viable. This thesis has used the concept of an intervention semi, provided by Aker Solutions, to assess problems related to these aspects. At first, design drivers for the concept were identified. These were found to be cost, weigh and operability, where (total) cost and (total) weight are strictly correlated. Operability, meaning the ability to keep operations running in different conditions and situations, are mainly dependent on motion characteristics and layout, where vertical motions were found to be the most important. The properties of the intervention semi was presented as a functional breakdown, divided in five main categories; well intervention, drilling, power generation, station keeping and transit, and other functions. The last category, the one called other functions, incorporated accommodation, ballast and bilge water systems, and heave compensation system. Most relevant for the intervention concept are the intervention functions and drilling functions. Of well intervention procedures, the concept should be able to do wireline operations, coiled tubing operations, and for drilling, through tubing rotary drilling will be the main procedure. After presenting the properties for the intervention semi concept, aspects of changing requirements due to uncertainty in the future, were discussed. The design functions of changing requirements identified were operation method and technology, environment and legislation, area of operation, and economics. Following this, a discussion of how to accommodate for these changing requirements were presented, with focus on aspects regarding flexibility, robustness, adaptability, and real options. After these terms and aspects had been discussed, an evaluation of the concept in relation to the ilities presented was done. Most relevant was the possibility of a development of the coiled tubing equipment, the aspect of managed pressure drilling as a function that might be needed in the future, and the use of rental equipment. Also, ilities were identified and discussed in a concept similar to the intervention semi presented in this thesis. From this, it was found that functions related to the environment (regarding emissions) would be a potential area of ilities, due to the continually increasing focus on such matters, and by having functions related to this designed with ilities, It would make it easier to improve these functions at a later time. Also, the aspect of extra deck space was discussed, which will give the design better flexibility, and in general, it was found that flexibility in the procedures for intervention and drilling operation was important for this concept. Some functions and aspects were also found not to be relevant for any sort of ilities. Among these were functions related to heavy drilling, increased water depth and the aspect of ice class.To find the value of a design with functional ilities, different methods and aspects were presented. At first, economical aspects were discussed, and methods using net present value were found to be relevant in relation to the valuation of ilities. Another approach discussed was scenario development and assessment, where in particular one method was found relevant. This method proposes to find an optimal design for the scenario assumed most probable, and then test this design against the other possible scenarios (using the models as simulation models) to get an impression of the resilience of the designs. Two decision support models were proposed, Model 1 and Model 2. The first model presented, Model 1, can be described as a “hybrid” decision model, part static, part dynamic, where an optimal design is found for a set of contracts, taking real options into consideration. The contracts should reflect the future, and from a set of base designs, with varying possibilities for functions and options, a design with an optimal combination of capabilities and options will be the result of solving the problem. Model 2 is sort of a static variant of Model 1, where the possibility of real options is no longer available. The model will still find a design with an optimal combination of capabilities for a set of contracts, but all capabilities must be part of the construction initially.Further, the two models are implemented for use in a commercial solver, and parameters and constraints are discussed. These implemented models were then used for the illustrative cases.The case studies illustrate how the two models presented can be utilised, and in addition illustrate how the scenario assessment discussed earlier can be combined with the decision support models. There are mainly three cases presented; two where Model 1 is used, and a third, where Model 2 is used. In Case 1 there are three base designs, with different characteristics, and one only attribute (supplementary function) that should be assessed. Three scenarios are presented as a basis for the contract generation. First, an optimal design solution was found for each scenario (Case 1a, Case 1b and Case 1c). Secondly, a scenario assessment was done, where the solution from the scenario assumed most probable is tested against the other two scenarios using the model as a simulation model rather than an optimisation model. Scenario 1 was assumed to be the most probable one, represented by Case 1a, and the optimal solution for this case was Design 1. This design was then tested against the two other scenarios, and it came out with a rather good result, illustrating the resilience of the chosen design. Case 2 illustrated a more complex problem, where an optimal solution should be found among 16 different base designs and four possible attributes. The attributes could either be part of the design initially or made as options that can be realised at a later time. The instance tested is assumed to be somewhat more complex than a commercial problem, but illustrates in a good way the capability of Model 1. Case 3 is an example of how Model 2 can be used. In Case 3a, only one base design is available, and with a set of four possible attributes, an optimal design should be found. Due to the “static” character of Model 2, the attributes can only be part of the initial design. Case 3b is much the same, except here there are two base designs to choose among, in addition to the four attributesA computational study was carried out, using Model 1, and only this, as it is assumed to be the most complex of the two models. The test incident assumed most relevant, with 100 contracts, four base designs, and eight attributes, can be solved one time in on the average less than two seconds, and for a full scenario analysis, consisting of about 1000 runs, the analysis will take about half an hour.As a concluding remark for this thesis, I will say that the main scope, which I in my opinion was to discuss how different design solutions can be evaluated in relation to future uncertainty, was answered in a good way with the two decision models proposed together with how these could be used in a scenario setting.

The report is divided into three different categories; background, concept evaluation and comparison and the methodology development. The background gives a short introduction of product architecture, modularity and modularization and also a brief description of existing design concepts which are capable of offering modular capabilities in the operation phase of a vessels life cycle.The second part of the report is a review of possible advantages and disadvantages with the implementation of a similar concept as presented in the background on offshore support vessels. The review deals with several aspects such as increased flexibility, higher spot utilization and also how this concept can have effects in an environmental perspective. Direct challenges with modular capabilities such as equipment complexity, port logistics issues etc. has also been discussed. Finally the concept is evaluated from an economical perspective, discussing costs in short and long term perspectives and how to predict the costs of a conversion between operations.The result of the evaluation is that the concept has aspects that are presumed quite beneficial for ship owners. Noticeable are increased flexibility in the range of operations a vessel can perform, possibilities for a fleet reduction due to modular capabilities and also possibilities for economic benefits in forms of higher spot utilization and easier maintenance of equipment modules. It is also anticipated that the concept will make the vessel more receptive for new technology and equipment modules. The most repressive aspect regarding modular capabilities is by far each equipment modules high degree of complexity together with the low degree of independency.The concept has also been compared with multi-purpose OSV’s and conventional mission specific OSV’s within several different aspects considered important for ship owners. The results are generally favoring a vessel with modular capabilities, but also that the negative aspects of the concept might not be taken sufficient account for in the comparison.In the third and last part it is developed a methodology to establish the equipment structure of an offshore support vessel with modular capabilities. It establishes the function hierarchy of the vessel and defines the interactions between the equipment modules and the functions before each module is evaluated in light of modular complexity and vessel influence. Based on this the equipment structure is established and exchange intervals for the modules are proposed.To illustrate the steps of the methodology better a case study is performed based on 5 different operations; anchor handling, towing, pipe lay, construction and support. The case study gives two main indications:1. There are a potential in further development of the methodology. Mainly involving the modules interactions and the specific equipment evaluation.2. The equipment modules are as determined before very complex and require long exchange intervals and also extensive external support to swap modules.

The overall aim of this case study is to find the most cost-effective strategy for complying with the IMO’s MARPOL Convention Regulation 13 & 14 in the Baltic Sea Emission Control Areas (ECAs) in the period from 2015 to 2035. The alternative compliance strategies considered are:- Scenario 0: Use Marine Gas Oil (MGO with 0.1% sulphur) to comply with the sulphur requirements, no other abatement measures installed, but an assumed NOx-taxation applies;- Scenario 1: Use Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO with 2.7% sulphur) and add scrubber and SCR to reduce SOx and NOx emissions, respectively;- Scenario 2: Use Marine Gas Oil (MGO with 0.1% sulphur) together with an SCR; and- Scenario 3: Use Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), single fuel or dual fuel.The following route is established: Helsinki – Zeebrugge – Antwerp – St. Petersburg – Kotka – Helsinki. The total distance for the roundtrip is 3654nm. 48 roundtrips are completed every year.Based on the specific fuel consumption for the engine and the sulphur content in the fuel, the sulphur emission factor for each scenario is calculated. The amount of SOx emitted from the ship is found by summarizing the product of the engine load, the engine size, the ship’s estimated time at sea and the emission factor. The NOx emission limits for the ship engines in relation to their rated engine speed given in revolutions per minute. The NOx emission factor is assumed to be constant at 55 kg NOx per ton fuel. Investment analyses are performed for a ship type both as new builds and as retrofitted. Operational costs include: fuel costs, lubricating oil costs, maintenance and repair/replacement costs, environmental taxation and educational costs (where applicable), among others. Scenario 0 is chosen as reference point based on the fact that it has the lowest investment cost among the scenarios. The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) relative Scenario 0 is found from the following formula:CER[EUR/tons]=(Differences in PVC between Scenario 0 and Scenario X)/(Differences in emissions between Scenario 0 and Scenario X)=∆PVC/∆EThe following conclusions are drawn from the cost-effectiveness analysis: - The scrubber in combination with SCR is a favored compliance strategy for IMO’s requirements, both for new builds and retrofits. It has the lowest fuel costs (HFO prices are low and stable) and the lowest present value of total costs among the scenarios outlined.- Having an engine running on MGO is not considered cost-effective. MGO prices are high, and are expected to increase even more. NOx abatement technologies are needed in addition.- LNG is a cost-effective solution, and it is the most environmental friendly alternative. Retrofitting vessels to run on LNG, however, is expensive. The LNG dual fuel technology is a flexible solution, and makes it more economic for the ship to trade outside the ECAs.- The cost comparison between the different scenarios depends largely on the future development of fuel prices.- Modal shift to either rail or road could be a consequence.