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In this thesis I study two fields of empirical finance: market integration and economic forecasting. The first two chapters focus on studying regional integration of Mexican and U.S. equity markets. In the third chapter, I propose the use of the daily term structure of interest rates to forecast inflation. Each chapter is a free-standing essay that constitutes a contribution to the field of empirical finance and economic forecasting. In Chapter 1, I study the ability of multi-factor asset pricing models to explain the unconditional and conditional cross-section of expected returns in Mexico. Two sets of factors, local and foreign factors, are evaluated consistent with the hypotheses of segmentation and of integration of the international finance literature. Only one variable, the Mexican U.S. exchange rate, appears in the list of both foreign and local factors. Empirical evidence suggests that the foreign factors do a better job explaining the cross-section of returns in Mexico in both the unconditional and conditional versions of the model. This evidence provides some suggestive support for the hypothesis of integration of the Mexican stock exchange to the U.S. market. In Chapter 2, I study further the integration between Mexico and U.S. equity markets. Based on the result from chapter 1, I assume that the Fama and French factors are the mimicking portfolios of the underlying risk factors in both countries. Market integration implies the same prices of risk in both countries. I evaluate the performance of the asset pricing model under the hypothesis of segmentation (country dependent risk rewards) and integration over the 1990-2004 period. The results indicate a higher degree of integration at the end of the sample period. However, the degree of integration exhibits wide swings that are related to both local and global events. At the same time, the limitations that arise in empirical asset pricing methodologies with emerging market data are evident. The data set is short in length, has missing observations, and includes data from thinly traded securities. Finally, Chapter 3, coauthored with John Maheu and Alex Maynard, studies the ability of daily spreads at different maturities to forecast inflation. Many pricing models imply that nominal interest rates contain information on inflation expectations. This has lead to a large empirical literature that investigates the use of interest rates as predictors of future inflation. Most of these focus on the Fisher hypothesis in which the interest rate maturity matches the inflation horizon. In general, forecast improvements have been modest. Rather than use only monthly interest rates that match the maturity of inflation, this chapter advocates using the whole term structure of daily interest rates and their lagged values to forecast monthly inflation. Principle component methods are employed to combine information from interest rates across both the term structure and time series dimensions. Robust forecasting improvements are found as compared to the Fisher hypothesis and autoregressive benchmarks.

The UAE's labour market policy of Emiratisation is intended to replace expatriates with local workers by imposing restrictions on the employment of expatriate workers in the public sector and enforcing the private sector to employ nationals in certain types of jobs. This policy has been focused rather narrowly on administrative jobs in the finance and oil sector, and has not addressed the newly emerging ICT sector which is a cornerstone of the government's long-term economic growth strategy. Moreover, strategies such as the Emiratisation policy and investment in the ICT sector are not currently taking place within the context of a proper analysis of labour market needs and problems. The main aim of this study is to make a significant contribution to the knowledge base from which a sustainable national human resource policy in the UAE can be developed, by exploring the current barriers to successful working environments, and by assessing how the Emiratisation policy can be redesigned to focus more on new high-growth sectors, especially the ICT sector. The study also contributes more generally to the field of knowledge about how human capital supply can be improved through policy interventions and technology implementation. Furthermore, by adopting a conceptual framework based on established labour market and social network theories, the study is expected to improve understanding of the UAE economy and potential solutions to current labour market problems, thus offering considerable practical value to UAE decision-makers and policy officials. The study employs a multi-disciplinary approach to the study of the relationship between human capital and ICT with special emphasis on harmonization. This is a mixed-methods study consisting of both quantitative and qualitative primary research data collection, as well as a review of literature. The quantitative research method used a semi-structured online questionnaire survey targeted at managers in the Oil/Gas and Banking/Finance sectors, future job-seekers (students), and other UAE labour market stakeholders and experts. This was followed up by in-depth interviews with ICT expert informants, to provide qualitative data. The results of the quantitative and qualitative components were integrated in a process of triangulation, to draw out their overall significance. The principle finding of this research is that the mismatch between the supply and demand sides of the labour market in terms of skills and expectations is the main barrier to emiratisation. High percentages of Emirati students do not enter the labour market following graduation. UAE nationals have high job and salary expectations, and mainly focus on the public sector. Employers surveyed believe that the types of skills and qualifications they need are in short supply among UAE nationals, especially in relation to managerial and professional jobs. The cultural importance of contacts makes the recruitment process inefficient on both sides. Emiratisation can be expensive for organisations, would be more sustainable if compliance were better enforced by the UAE government, and needs to be better supported by a good education/training system which prepares UAE nationals for the needs of the labour market. The study concludes by advocating a gradual shift towards the knowledge economy as a way of rebalancing the labour market, proposing potential further research on the ICT field within the UAE's private sector, with close attention to indigenization. On the demand side, more detailed nationally representative data might be collected on the skills requirements of private sector jobs in a range of sectors, so that the UAE education system can be better designed to meet the needs of the economy through human resource development.

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Being a part of social studies of finance, i.e. a perspective that, in its narrow sense, investigates the role of science and technology in financial markets, the thesis suggests that one can understand science in a wider sense, as an expert knowledge domain. The social studies of finance, then, can be broadened out to encompass the different ways in which expert knowledge shapes financial practices. Legal expertise is another instantiation of expert knowledge in the sense that both (science and law) are different forms of power; therefore this research aims at answering the question how finance is shaped by legal expert knowledge. The study employs the method of ‘opening the black box’ of regulation, and thus it argues that technicalities of regulation, which embody legal expertise, are crucial for the construction of financial markets. The thesis demonstrates how ‘just’ a concise amendment to Article 1062 of the Russian Civil Code has had significant ramifications for the interbank USD/RUB cash-settled forward market, and explores the controversies involved in and details of the law making process. The amendment was made in 2007 and changed the legal status of non-deliverable forwards, which had been classified by Russian courts as gambling transactions under Russian law in 1998-1999. Based on the evidence obtained from the study of the legal developments that resulted in the amendment, the thesis shows that the politics of the law-making process, as well as shaping the outcome, can in equal measure be disruptive and result in a delay in legal changes that market participants felt were much-needed. After almost a decade of painstaking negotiations, the amendment stated that cashsettled derivatives are legally enforceable under the Russian law. It rendered cash-settled forwards legally secure, hence encouraged cross-border transactions and enhanced the market’s liquidity; it is also made possible the introduction of netting as a risk management tool in the market. The contested, long-delayed amendment is thus an example of a pervasive process: the constitutive role of law (including esoteric law, little noticed outside of specialist spheres) in shaping markets.

This thesis is an attempt to understand the suspicion of money implied in Jesus' statement that it is impossible to serve both God and Mammon. I argue on the basis of Scripture, reason and tradition that problems associated with money do not arise simply from the way it is used, but from the nature of money itself. This is argued in three sections. First I consider the history of money and in particular of the commodity theory of money. Second I consider the issues of debt and interest, of central concern in the Christian Scriptures. Finally I consider money through four different lenses: justice, value, desire and power. The argument as a whole leads up to the last of these. As was already suggested by Jacques Ellul fifty years ago, I argue that money must be understood as a cosmic power to which we are all subject and which is in need of redemption. In the second and third sections I make suggestions as to what the redemption of money might look like. I summarise the argument in a final section, 'De-coding Mammon'.

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy is reflected in the global expansion of Chinese enterprises. While a lot of attention has been devoted to the expansion of foreign owned enterprises in China since 1978, the interest of this study has extended to Chinese owned service firms which are venturing abroad, with a particular focus on a Chinese hotel chain-Guangdong (International) Hotel Management Limited. This research undertakes an exploratory study - based on inductive and evaluative approach - to generate new, analytical insights into the social phenomenon of a Chinese hotel chain's internationalisation. In entering in international hotel marketplace, Mainland Chinese companies face a very competitive environment in which most of the major players have already achieved strong market positions. Based on consideration of theories and analysis of the empirical evidence, this study develops a theoretical framework of the internationalisation of Chinese hotel companies which is linked to the specific characteristics of the country in transition from a centrally-planned economy to a market economy.

This paper determines the effects of police interventions on darknet markets. Darknet markets have been rapidly growing and the amount of drugs being sold on them keeps rising. This paper finds no significant changes in prices of drug listings before and after drug busts, and no significant changes in price per unit of drugs across the entire market. The results are similar to prior research done on normal drug markets that determined that police interventions have no significant effect on changing drug prices. With the rapid growth of drugs being sold on darknet markets, it is critical for law enforcement to understand how the markets react to police interventions.

We investigate the incentive to provide goods of high quality in a vertically related market for different types of business organizations, a farmer-owned cooperative and an investor-owned firm. Contrary to the firm, the cooperative is characterized by decentralized decision making, which gives rise to overproduction and problems coordinating the quality decisions of its members (free riding). Comparing both manufacturers acting as monopolists we show that the cooperative will never supply final goods of higher quality than the firm, and that the problem of quality coordination is mitigated if the cooperative succeeds in preventing overproduction. When a cooperative faces competition of an investor-owned firm (mixed duopoly), it will - except in one limit case - never produce final goods of a higher quality than the firm and will deliver lower quality in a number of scenarios.