Climate change poses significant threats to mountain ecosystems in North America (Barnett et al., 2005) and will subsequently impact water supply for human and ecosystem use. To assess these threats, we must have an understanding of the local variability in hydrometeorological conditions over the mountains. This thesis describes the continued development and application of a fine scale spatial hydrometeorological model, GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input). The GENESYS model successfully simulated daily snowpack values for a 10 year trial period and annual runoff volumes for a thirty year period. Based on the results of these simulations the model was applied to estimate potential changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed, Montana. GCM derived future climate scenarios were applied, representing a range of emissions controls and applied to perturb the 1961-90 climate record using the “delta” downscaling technique. The effects of these changes in climate were assessed for thirty year time slices centered on 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The GENESYS simulations of future climate showed that mountain snowpack was highly vulnerable to changes in temperature and to a lesser degree precipitation. A seasonal shift to an earlier onset of spring melt and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow occurred under all climate change scenarios. Results of mean and maximum snowpack were more variable and appeared to be highly dependent on scenario selection. The results demonstrated that although annual volume of available water from snowpack may increase, the seasonal distribution of available water may be significantly altered. / viii, 93 leaves ; 29 cm

A modelling approach focused on snow hydrology was developed and applied to project future changes in spring streamflow volumes in the St. Mary River headwaters basin, Montana. A spatially distributed, physically-based, hydrometeorological and snow mass balance model was refined and used to produce snow water equivalent (SWE) and rainfall surfaces for the study watershed. Snowmelt runoff (SR) and effective rainfall runoff (RR) volumes were compiled for the 1961-2004 historical period. A statistical regression model was developed linking spring streamflow volume (QS) at Babb, Montana to the SR and RR modelled data. The modelling results indicated that SR explained 70% of the variability in QS while RR explained another 9%. The model was applied to climate change scenarios representing the expected range of future change to produce annual QS for the period 2010-2099. Compared to the base period (1961-1990), average QS change ranged from -3% to -12% for the 2020s period. Percent changes increased to between -25% and -32% for the 2050s, and -38% and -55% for the 2080s. Decreases in QS also accompanied substantial advances in the onset of spring snowmelt. Whereas the spring pulse onset on average occurred on April 8 for the base period, it occurred 36 to 50 days earlier during the 2080s. The findings suggest that increasing precipitation will not compensate for the effects of increasing temperature in watershed SWE and associated spring runoff generation. There are implications for stakeholder interests related to ecosystems, the irrigation industry, and recreation. / xii, 136 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm. --

There has been much interest in the last decade concerning the factors that influence diversity, especially how diversity and ecosystem processes may be linked. This study was based in small, cobble streams in South East Queensland. Its aim was to determine how the diversity and composition of consumers (the grazer guild) is influenced by both the production and composition of benthic algae, at different spatial scales. It also aimed to ascertain whether this response differs among grazer sub guilds with different dispersal capabilities. Ten sites in the Upper Brisbane and Mary catchments were sampled. The sites were selected to provide a range of productivity and composition. Grazers from these sites included snails and elmids, and larval mayflies, moths, and caddisflies. Grazer diversity and composition appeared to be structured by catchment scale influences, but environmental variables also affected which animals colonised patches and microhabitats (cobbles) within catchments. Primary productivity and algal composition could not be separated, with highly productive reaches also having a high cover of filamentous algal taxa. Grazer diversity displayed strongly positive, linear relationships with algal variables at the reach scale. It had a negative relationship with filamentous algae at the cobble scale, and a non-significant hump-shaped relationship with primary productivity. Survey data alone could not separate whether grazers were responding to habitat or food-related drivers, or to variations in productivity. Experimental manipulation of algal variables at the patch scale, using light and nutrients, also could not clearly uncouple the relationship between primary productivity and filamentous algal cover. Once reach scale variation was removed, grazer diversity displayed hump-shaped relationships with algal variables, including algal diversity. Much of this variation was due to patterns in mobile grazers, as sedentary grazers did not respond to algal variation at this scale. The density of the more mobile taxa showed similar patterns to those at the cobble scale (hump-shaped). A second field experiment was carried out in order to further investigate the responses of invertebrates to algal community composition at the cobble scale. Data from all three chapters suggested that as sites shifted to a dominance of filamentous algae, often with an associated increase in GPP, there was also a shift in the grazer community towards more sedentary grazers and away from the more mobile taxa. This also occurred at the cobble scale in the second experiment. The gut analysis and diet studies in the third chapter indicated that while many grazers consumed filamentous algae, it was not assimilated. This suggests that the preferences for sedentary taxa for cobbles and reaches dominated by filamentous algae are likely to be due to some other, possibly habitat-related, factor such as flow or predation refuge. The study provides a rare examination of relationships between primary productivity and consumer diversity in freshwater streams, and finds support for the pattern found in other systems of monotonic relationships of these two variables at large scales and hump-shaped relationships at smaller scales. It emphasises the importance of understanding other, potentially confounding, aspects of communities of producers, and investigates the possible roles of the most important of these (community composition) in structuring consumer communities in the small cobble streams of South-East Queensland.