The purpose of this thesis is to propose a consistent theory and a model based on it to estimate the uncertainty of project duration, cost, revenue, and net present value probabilistically. The model can be used to assist decision making on such strategic, feasibility analysis issues as contingency provision, reliability of an estimate for the "go-no go" decision, adopting phased or fast-track construction, etc. Project cost and revenue are evaluated in terms of current and discounted dollars, thereby emphasising the economic effect of time and inflation on net present value which is considered as the decision criterion. The model is derived mathematically by treating all the issues which effect the estimation of project cost, duration and revenue through the mechanism of linked work packages. Issues found to be significant in the evaluation of work package duration are: the scope of work, the productivity, and the labour usage. For work package cost they are: the duration and the starting time, unit rates for labour, equipment, and materials, labour and equipment usage, sub-contractor and indirect cost, inflation and interest rates. For revenue the issues are: the gross revenue, operating & maintenance cost, inflation rates, duration, and the starting time. Moments of work package cost, duration and revenue streams are first evaluated using subjective estimates of percentiles for the independent variables, deriving moment information from these estimates, and then processing this information using the expectation operator on the Taylor series expansion of the performance measure about the mean. These moments along with the Pearson family of distributions are used to quantify the uncertainty of project duration, cost, revenue, and net present value. The decision maker is provided with probabilistic estimates, of duration, cost and revenue at both the work package/revenue stream and project levels and of the net present value. A computer program is developed to implement the proposed theory and to organise and simplify the calculation process. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate

The objective of the thesis is to establish methodology for development of a wind turbine, simple in design and easy to maintain, for possible application in developing countries. To that end the Savonius configuration is analyzed in detail both experimentally and analytically to lay a sound foundation for its performance evaluation. Following a brief review of relevant significant contributions in the field (Chapter I), an extensive wind tunnel test-program using scale models is described which assesses the relative influence of system parameters such as blade geometry, gap-size, overlap, aspect ratio, Reynolds number, blockage, etc., on the rotor output. The parametric study leads to an optimum configuration with an increase in efficiency by around 100% compared to the reported efficiency of ≈ 12 — 15%. Of particular interest is the blockage correction procedure which is vital for application of the wind tunnel results to a prototype design, and facilitates comparison of data obtained by investigators using different models and test facilities. With the design and performance results in hand, Chapters III — VI focus attention on analytical approaches to complement the test procedure. Using the concept of a central vortex, substantiated by a flow visualization study, Chapter III develops a semi-empirical approach to predict the rotor performance using measured stationary blade pressure data. The objective here is to provide a simple yet reliable design tool which can replace dynamical testing with a significant saving in time, effort, and cost. The simple approach promises to be quite effective in predicting the rotor performance, even in the presence of blockage, and should prove useful at least in the preliminary design stages. Chapter IV describes in detail a relatively more sophisticated and rigorous Boundary Element Approach using the Discrete Vortex Model. The method attempts to represent the complex unsteady flow field with separating shear layers in a realistic fashion consistent with the available computational tools. Important steps in the numerical analysis of this challenging problem are discussed at some length in Chapter V and a performance evaluation algorithm established. Of considerable importance is the effect of computational parameters such as number of elements representing the rotor blade, time-step size, location of the nascent vortices, etc., on the accuracy of results and the associated cost. Results obtained using the Discrete Vortex Model are presented and discussed in Chapter VI, for both stationary as well as rotating Savonius configurations. A detailed parametric study provides fundamental information concerning the starting and dynamic torque time histories, power coefficient, evolution of the wake, Strouhal number, etc. A comparison with the flow visualization and wind tunnel test data (Chapter II) shows remarkable correlation suggesting considerable promise for the approach. The thesis ends with concluding remarks and a few suggestions concerning possible future research in the area. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Mechanical Engineering, Department of / Graduate

This thesis examines the cross-sectional and time series variation between commodities futures prices and current prices. The 'Theory of Storage' states that the difference between the two prices will be a function of two factors: The first is the cost of storing the commodity over the term of the futures contract (carrying costs). The second factor is the value of the convenience yield. The convenience yield is a concept which evolved from the theory of storage and is explained as the benefit which accrues to the individual or firm that holds the commodity in storage but does not accrue to the holder of the futures contract. It is generally assumed that the value of a commodity's convenience yield is decreasing in the aggregate inventory available and some indirect empirical support has been generated for this assumption, however, an economic model has not been provided which derives the result. There are two objectives of this thesis: The first is to provide a model of the convenience yield which explains the relationship between the level of inventories and the value of the convenience yield. The second objective is to empirically test the predictions of the model. The model provided shows the convenience yield to be decreasing in the level of aggregate inventory. In addition, the value of the convenience is found to be related to the time-series process of shocks to demand. An analogy is drawn between the convenience yield and an option with a stochastic exercise price. Using futures price data and aggregate inventory data, the empirical implications of the model are tested. The results support the hypothesis that a commodity's convenience yield is decreasing in aggregate inventory. Some evidence is also provided that the convenience yield is decreasing in the correlation between shocks to demand. / Business, Sauder School of / Finance, Division of / Graduate

This thesis examines the application of the multigrid method to the semiconductor equations. An overview of semiconductor device modelling in presented, and the multi-grid method is described. Several modifications to the basic multigrid algorithm are evaluated based on their performance for a one dimensional model problem. It was found that using a symmetric Gauss-Seidel relaxation scheme, a special prolongation based on the discrete equations, and local relaxation sweeps near the pn-junctions produced a robust, and efficient code. This modified algorithm is also successful for a wide variety of cases, and its performance compares favourably with other multigrid algorithms that have been applied to the semiconductor equations. / Science, Faculty of / Mathematics, Department of / Graduate

Observations made at Goat Meadows - a small sub-alpine basin located near Pemberton, British Columbia -demonstrated that a layer which is either water repellent or has only a limited affinity for water is present at most vegetated sites. The layer is typically a few centimetres in thickness, and is usually located at or near the top of the profile: it was present only in the zone of accumulation of organic matter. The spatial distribution of the layer did not appear to be related to the distribution of any particular species of plant. Sampling of sub-alpine sites in the Cascade, Selkirk, and Purcell Mountains indicated that such layers are common in the alpine - sub-alpine ecotone of southern British Columbia. The relationship between ponding depth and infiltration rate was explored through experiments conducted on samples collected near Ash Lake, in Goat Meadows. These samples were chosen for analysis because the repellent layer was in excess of thirty centimetres thick at this site. Infiltration rates remained below 2x10⁻⁹ m/s for all samples, even given ponding depths of up to forty centimetres. Breakthrough of liquid water was not observed, even after one month, which implies that most of the infiltration occurred as vapour transfer. In order to observe the movement of liquid water through water repellent media, a plexiglas cell was constructed. A synthetic water repellent sand with uniform surface properties was used as the medium. It was found that up to some critical depth, there was no entry of water into the medium. As the ponding depth was increased in steps, the front would advance in steps: it remained stationary between these step-increases in ponding depth. As the front advanced, protuberances or "fingers" began to develop. At some critical ponding depth, a finger would grow without bound. These observations pose a challenge to existing models of infiltration, since it appears that heterogeneity at the scale of individual pores must be invoked to explain them, but it is usually assumed that the properties of a porous medium are continuous at this scale. The thermodynamics of filling and emptying of pores is considered with emphasis on the effects of pore shape and of variations in the physicochemical properties at the scale of the pore. This thermodynamic analysis provides the conceptual basis for development of a model of infiltration in which pore-scale heterogeneity is preserved. Although it was not developed as such, the model follows the approach of cellular automata, in which local relations between pores or "cells" govern the behaviour of the system. The model replicated the observations of infiltration into synthetic water repellent porous media well: both the halting advance of the front as the ponding depth was increased and the development of fingers were simulated. The fact that such complex behaviour was predicted using only a simple set of physically based rules confirms the power of the approach. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

This thesis addresses the problem of pricing perishable inventories such as airline seats and hotel rooms. It also analyzes the airline seat allocation problem when two airlines compete on a single-leg flight. Finally, several existing models for seat allocation with multiple fares on a single-leg flight are compared. The pricing framework is consistent with modern yield management tools which utilize restrictions such as weekend stayover to segment the market. One model analyzed considers a restriction which is irrelevant to one set of consumers, but which the others find so onerous that they will not purchase a restricted ticket at any price. If the consumers who do not mind the restriction are less price sensitive than those who find the restriction onerous, then the thesis shows that there is an optimal policy for a monopolist which will sell fares at no more than three price levels. When two restrictions are allowed in the model, if one is more onerous than the other in the sense that the set of consumers who would not buy a ticket with the first restriction is a subset of those who would not buy it with the second restriction, then the restrictions are said to be nested. If the sets of consumers who would not buy tickets with the first restriction is disjoint from those who would not buy with the second restriction, then the restrictions are said to be mutually exclusive. If two restrictions are either nested or mutually exclusive, then a monopolist needs at most four price levels with three types (i.e. combinations of restrictions) of product. With two general restrictions, the monopolist may need five price levels with four types of product. The pricing model is applied to restrictions which are based on membership in a particular organization. For example, employees of an airline are frequently eligible for special fares. Some airlines provide special fares for government employees or for employees of certain corporations. An analysis is given to help airlines understand the costs and benefits of such arrangements. A model of two airlines competing on a single-leg flight is developed for the case where the airlines have fixed capacity and fixed price levels for two types of fares-full and discount. The airlines compete by controlling the number of discount fares which they sell. The split of the market between the airlines is modelled in two different ways. First, the airlines might share the market for a fare class proportionally to their allocation of seats to that fare class. In this case, under certain conditions, there exists an equilibrium pair of booking limits for the discount fare such that each airline will protect the same number of seats for the full fare customers, even when the demands are random and stochastically dependent. The second market sharing model assumes that the two airlines share the market demand equally. In this case, when the demands are deterministic, then there is an equilibrium solution where each airline will protect enough seats to split equally the market for the full fares. Finally, three existing seat allocation models for multi-fare single-leg flights with stochastically independent demands are compared. It is shown that the optimality conditions for each of these models are analytically equivalent, thus providing a unified approach to this problem. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Research on justice in social exchange distinguishes between fairness as a goal and fairness as an interpersonal influence strategy. Strategic fairness is considered to be epiphenomenal and explainable by more basic motives, most notably, self-interest; fairness as a goal is based only on Lerner’s (1982) model. Recent findings contribute to a new model which specifies that allocators of resources use fairness strategically while recipients treat justice as a goal by reacting to perceived injustice. This dissertation presents the model along with an experimental test of its predictions, which also addresses an ongoing debate in experimental economics on the role of fairness in ultimatum and dictator games. The experiment was designed to distinguish between fairness as an interpersonal strategy and fairness as a goal. Participants moved from allocator to recipient roles in various experimental conditions that varied their information and interdependence. Results show that ultimatum offerers made smaller offers when respondents knew how much they were dividing and larger offers when fairness was salient. Dictators made smaller offers than ultimatum offerers, but did not reduce their offers as much as ultimatum offerers when the respondent did not know how much was being divided. They appeared unaffected by the salience of fairness. Respondents rejected more small offers than large ones and more offers when they knew the amount being divided. The rejection rates of ultimatum and dictator offers did not vary. The results show substantive support for the idea that justice motives are role specific. Unexpected findings led to modifications of the model with respect to the interdependence of the actors. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for the study of justice in general and for the specific case of fairness concerns in bargaining games. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

In this study a macro model is outlined in which noncompetitive as well as competitive product price behaviour can be incorporated and the macro implications compared. A variety of non-competitive pricing models are considered and on the basis of these (and in conjunction with a chapter linking the micro to the macro analysis), it is argued that non-competitive pricing is potentially important in a macro model. It can generate macro relative share, price, and output behaviour different from that generated by price - equals - marginal cost competitive behaviour. In the empirical investigations of Canadian manufacturing industries, evidence of non-competitive price behaviour is found. The pro-cyclical standard competitive behaviour of gross-margins (mark-ups on variable costs) is not generally observed. Combining the theoretical with the empirical results, it is concluded that non-competitive pricing is not only potentially important, but of actual importance because of the empirical significance of non-competitive price behaviour. The importance of this for macro policy is briefly considered in the final chapter. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

Several models were developed for the analysis of metal-semiconductor solar cells. The models presented are: (i) a limit model to obtain an idea of what the maximum conversion efficiency of metal-semiconductor solar cells is followed by; (ii) a model suitable for the prediction of the performance of metal/single-crystal silicon solar cells; and (iii) a general model for calculating the efficiency of solar cells fabricated from materials other than Si such as GaAs. Extensive use of numerical methods were required to arrive at solutions to the equations presented in the latter two models. The operation of the models is demonstrated using n-and p-type Si and GaAs with Au being taken as the barrier metal. Calculations are presented showing the effect on solar energy conversion efficiency of surface recombination velocity, barrier height, minority-carrier lifetime, barrier metal thickness, collecting grid configuration, and cell thickness. A comparison of practical and computed data for the Au/n-GaAs system yields good agreement. Based on the results of the calculations, it is shown that metal-semiconductor solar cells provide solar energy conversion of medium efficiency and improvements in efficiency depend on the development of high barrier-height systems. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Electrical and Computer Engineering, Department of / Graduate

The traffic moved between two cities by a long-haul carrier is commonly termed a lane. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate methods to assess the profitability of individual lanes. To tackle the problem of lane profitability, one needs to have accurate and valid data of revenue and costs. In view of the importance of properly prepared data, a secondary purpose of this study is to recommend accounting procedures to record data in a usable form for further studies of this kind. The concept of revenue for a lane is not difficult to understand. However, the concept of cost for a lane raises some difficult questions. Since a terminal handles traffic from a variety of lanes, the crux of the problem is to disaggregate the terminal costs to each individual lane. Statistical costing is the main tool used in this study. It is not the most accurate method but is less costly than most other methods. Thus, it is often an indeal substitution for detailed engineering studies. Statistical methods have applicability when direct observation of the relationship between cost and output is difficult or impossible. To this end, regression analysis was proposed extensively in the study to examine the behaviour of different cost elements. With a good grasp of the relationship between terminal costs and terminal output (activities) one can apportion the related terminal costs to the lanes of interest. This study presents a normative model. To construct the model, the examination of a common motor carrier's operation has provided much insight regarding (1) the kinds of data that are generally available, (2) how the available data can be improved, and (3) how the constructed model relates to the motor carrier examined. To appreciate the subtleties inherent in this study, a general understanding of the industry as well as the daily operation of a motor carrier is required. To assess the profitability relating to different lanes, one requires some workable methods, and above all, workable data. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate