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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Cearà e a tendÃncia de uma matriz energÃtica com geraÃÃo predominantemente eÃlio-elÃtrica / Cearà and the trend of an energy matrix generating predominantly aeolian-electric

Nicorray de Queiroz Santos 29 September 2015 (has links)
Diante do cenÃrio atual, a substituiÃÃo do tradicional modelo de geraÃÃo hidrotÃrmico para hidroeÃlioelÃtrico no Brasil à bastante promissor. Deve-se ressaltar que o sistema elÃtrico brasileiro tem se baseado, hà dÃcadas, na geraÃÃo hidrÃulica auxiliada por fontes tÃrmicas oriundas de combustÃveis fÃsseis. Recentemente, fontes de energia renovÃvel como a de biomassa, a solar e a eÃlica vÃm tambÃm sendo utilizadas. A participaÃÃo das fontes eÃlicas tem sido significante desde 2005, tendo o Estado do Cearà demonstrado grande potencial para exploraÃÃo desse recurso. Para amparar essa inserÃÃo na matriz energÃtica cearense, os perfis dos fatores de capacidades sÃo avaliados, neste trabalho, visando o planejamento de produÃÃo de energia elÃtrica nos parques eÃlicos. Para os parques eÃlicos em operaÃÃo, constata-se que a velocidade mÃdia horÃria dos ventos ao longo do perÃodo analisado à de 8,54 m/s, conforme base de dados analisada entre 2012 e 2014. As funÃÃes de probabilidade de Rayleigh e Weibull permitiram tambÃm comparar os fatores de capacidade encontrados na simulaÃÃo com os dados verificados, entre os anos 2009 e 2014, em 35 plantas eÃlicas enquadradas, conforme procedimento de rede do ONS, com o objetivo de avaliar a variaÃÃo desse indicador. AlÃm disso, à possÃvel analisar comparativamente o valor real dos fatores de capacidade em funÃÃo dos valores planejados. O fator de capacidade mÃdio, determinado empiricamente, nas plantas em operaÃÃo à 39,9%, sendo que o valor correspondente Ãs curvas de distribuiÃÃo de probabilidade da velocidade do vento, o FC mÃdio, à 48%. Dessa forma, conclui-se que a alteraÃÃo do modelo hidrotÃrmico para hidroeÃlicoelÃtrico para algumas regiÃes do Brasil à viÃvel e de significativa importÃncia, tendo em vista os cenÃrios atu-ais de nossa reserva hÃdrica. O estudo ainda permite constatar que os parques eÃlicos atualmente representam 23,7% de participaÃÃo da demanda de carga no Estado do CearÃ, que corresponde atualmente a 2 GWp. Assim, à perfeitamente possÃvel se alterar a participaÃÃo para 40%, aumentando-se em 12,3% a capacidade instalada no Estado. Em outros termos, isso significa aumentar a atual participaÃÃo de 1,1 GW para 2 GW de potÃncia instalada, sendo que o fator de capacidade mÃdio de 475 MW mÃdios ao ano passaria a ser de 800 MW mÃdio, o que permitiria a maior diversificaÃÃo da matriz energÃtica cearense. Essa diferenÃa à estimada em 325 MW mÃdios, o que corresponde a mais 30 parques eÃlicos de 30 MW cada. / Given the current scenery in Brazil, the replacement of the traditional hydrothermal-based power generation model for a hydro/wind-based one is very promising. It is worth to mention that the Brazilian power system has been based on hydropower generation for decades, but the energy matrix was gradually supplemented by the addition of thermal sources derived from fossil fuels. Recently, renewable energy sources such as biomass, solar, and wind have also been included. Within this context, the participation of the wind power has become significant since 2005, while the state of Cearà has shown great potential for the exploitation of such energy resource. In order to support the integration of the wind power to Cearà energy matrix, the profiles of capacity factors are evaluated in this work aiming at energy planning regarding wind farms. Considering the wind farms currently in operation, it can be stated that the hourly average wind speed for the analyzed period is 8.54 m/s for the database among the years 2012 and 2014. The Rayleigh and Weibull distribution functions also allow comparing the capacity factors obtained in simulation tests and actual data for the period between 2009 and 2014, involving 35 wind farms, defined according to the ONS grid procedures. Besides, it is possible to effectively compare the actual capacity factors with the predicted ones. The average capacity factor, which has been determined empirically in operating plants, is 39.9%, while the value corresponding to the distribution function curves, the FCavg, is 48%. Thus, the replacement of the current hydrothermal generation model for a hydro-wind-power-based one, in some regions of Brazil, is viable and of great importance within the current scenery of water reserves. The study also reveals that wind farms now account for 23.7% of the load demand in the state of CearÃ, which is currently equal to 2 GWp. It is then possible to increase its contribution to 40%, thus increasing the installed capacity by 12.3%. In other words, it implies increasing the installed power from 1.1 GW to 2 GW, while the average capacity factor of 475 MWavg per year is increased to 800 MWavg, with the consequent diversification of Cearà energy matrix. This difference is estimated at 325 MWavg, which corresponds to more than 30 wind farms rated at 30 MW each

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