<p>Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments of countries and central banks in developed markets could somehow push inflation to some very high level in the long run. Due to the decreasing of pension fund benefits and increasing inflation rate, pension companies are selling inflation-linked products to hedge against inflation risk. Such companies are seriously considering the possible effects of inflation volatility on their investment, and some of them tend to include inflationary allowances in the pension payment plan. In this dissertation we study the management of pension funds of the defined contribution type in the presence of inflation-recession. We study how the fund manager maximizes his fund&rsquo / s wealth when the salaries and stocks are affected by inflation. In this regard, we consider the case of a pension company which invests in a stock, inflation-linked bonds and a money market account, while basing its investment on the contribution of the plan member. We use a benchmarking approach and martingale methods to compute an optimal strategy which maximizes the fund wealth.</p>

Safety first criterion and mean-shortfall criterion both explore cases of assets allocation with downside risk. In this paper, I compare safety first portfolio selection problem and mean-shortfall portfolio optimization problem, considering risk averse investors in practice. Safety first portfolio selection uses Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk measure, and mean-shortfall portfolio optimization uses expected shortfall as a risk measure, respectively. VaR is estimated by implementing extreme theory using a semi-parametric method. Expected shortfall is estimated by two nonparametric methods: a natural estimation and a kernel-weighted estimation. I use daily data on three international stock indices, ranging from January 1986 to February 2012, to provide empirical evidence in asset allocations and illustrate the performances of safety first and mean-shortfall with their risk measures. Also, the historical data has been divided in two ways. One is truncated at year 1998 and explored the performance during tech boom and financial crisis. the mean-shortfall portfolio optimization with the kernel-weighted method performed better than the safety first criterion, while the safety first criterion was better than the mean-shortfall portfolio optimization with the natural estimation method.

<p>Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments of countries and central banks in developed markets could somehow push inflation to some very high level in the long run. Due to the decreasing of pension fund benefits and increasing inflation rate, pension companies are selling inflation-linked products to hedge against inflation risk. Such companies are seriously considering the possible effects of inflation volatility on their investment, and some of them tend to include inflationary allowances in the pension payment plan. In this dissertation we study the management of pension funds of the defined contribution type in the presence of inflation-recession. We study how the fund manager maximizes his fund&rsquo / s wealth when the salaries and stocks are affected by inflation. In this regard, we consider the case of a pension company which invests in a stock, inflation-linked bonds and a money market account, while basing its investment on the contribution of the plan member. We use a benchmarking approach and martingale methods to compute an optimal strategy which maximizes the fund wealth.</p>

Magister Scientiae - MSc / Aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments of countries and central banks in developed markets could somehow push inflation to some very high level in the long run. Due to the decreasing of pension fund benefits and increasing inflation rate, pension companies are selling inflation-linked products to hedge against inflation risk. Such companies are seriously considering the possible effects of inflation volatility on their investment, and some of them tend to include inflationary allowances in the pension payment plan. In this dissertation we study the management of pension funds of the defined contribution type in the presence of inflation-recession. We study how the fund manager maximizes his fund's wealth when the salaries and stocks are affected by inflation. In this regard, we consider the case of a pension company which invests in a stock, inflation-linked bonds and a money market account, while basing its investment on the contribution of the plan member. We use a benchmarking approach and martingale methods to compute an optimal strategy which maximizes the fund wealth. / South Africa