published_or_final_version / abstract / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

This thesis aims to improve the socio-economic resilience of the riverine communities in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), Cambodia, through enhancing the institutional development of aspects of advantages and risks, factors of unsustainable livelihoods, engagement of external and local institutions, and external dependency. Three hypotheses are tested: (1) livelihoods are highly influenced by assets, poverty, food insecurity, hazards and local trans-boundary influences; (2) existing external and local institutions have failed to improve adaptation and resilience; and, (3) development programmes are ineffective due to insufficient funding by the central government and the short-term policies of Non-governmental Organization (NGOs). This research hinges on dependency theory, concepts of adaptation and resilience, and a sustainable livelihood framework. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were employed as the main research methods. The Upper, Middle, and Lower stretches of the Mekong River were selected as case studies. The research discovered four main findings: (1) livelihoods in the LMB have proven unsustainable in the periods 2001-10 and 2011-20, with high rates of poverty and food insecurity due to heterogeneous growth; lack of rural diversification; insufficient assets; inappropriate strategies; and the impacts of environmental and socio-economic change; (2) neither external nor local institutions were able to reify the capacity of the villagers to adapt to shock and stress resulting from floods, drought, and high food prices: nor could they improve resilience to declines in water-related resources, i.e., water, fisheries and forestry; (3) external institutional support for sustainable livelihood development has proven ineffective due to insufficient government funds,high aid dependency and fragmentation, incoherence of development agendas, and unclear Decentralization & Deconcentration (D&D) mechanisms; and, (4) as the main local institutions, Commune Councils (CoCs) have been weakly established with inadequate human and financial resources; poor private partnerships; limited authority in decision-making, and high dependency on external support. Hypothesis 1 is partially rejected but hypotheses 2 and 3 are proven. The research has also contributed to the extant academic literature, namely in the areas of sustainable livelihoods frameworks, and concepts of adaption and resilience. In the interests of realising socio-economic resilience of the riverine communities in the LMB, the future efforts of governments, international donors, NGOs and CoCs should be directed towards: (1) alleviating poverty and food insecurity; (2) strengthening the capacity of adaption and resilience; and, (3) reducing external dependency. In particular, external institutions should fully support CoCs and the communities with long-term capacity building through on-job training, agricultural extension services, and private sector participation.

This study focuses on the design of water resources systems in developing nations with particular reference to the development of water resources in the Lower Mekong Basin (Khmer Republic, Laos, Thailand, and Republic of South Viet -Nam). The determination of the "best" system in terms of social goals reflecting the economic and social environment of the Mekong countries is the main issue of this dissertation. The imperfection of the usual technique for planning water resources systems, namely, cost -benefit analysis, leads to the use of the standardized cost -effectiveness methodology. To illustrate how the design is accomplished, two distinctly different structural alternatives of possible development in the Lower Mekong Basin are defined. The design process starts from the statements of goals or objectives of water resources development, which are then mapped onto specifications sets in which social needs are represented. Next, the capabilities of alternative systems are determined through simulation in which three 50 -year sequences of synthetic streamflow are generated by a first order autoregressive scheme. The two alternatives are then compared using both quantitative and qualitative criteria. To illustrate how a decision in selecting an alternative system could be reached, ranking of criteria by order of preference is demonstrated. With the choice of either a fixed -cost or fixed- effectiveness approach, the decision to select the best alternative system could be made. At this point, the use of a weighting technique, which is a common fallacy of systems analysis, will be automatically eliminated. The study emphasizes that a systematic design procedure of water resources systems is provided by the standardized cost- effectiveness approach, which possesses several advantages. The approach will suggest and help identify the system closest to meeting the desired economic and social goals of the developing countries in the Lower Mekong Basin. In this connection, the approach will help governments in the preparation of programming and budgeting of capital for further investigations and investments. It is believed that the approach will eliminate unnecessary expenses in projects that are planned on an individual basis or by methods used at present. Further, the approach provides an appropriate mechanism for generating essential information in the decision process. Both quantifiable and non -quantifiable criteria are fully considered. The choice of a fixed -cost or fixed -effectiveness approach will determine the trade -off between these criteria. The study recognizes that research to determine appropriate hydrologic models for monthly streamfiow generation for tributary projects in the Basin is necessary. This leads to another important area of research which is to find the appropriate number of monthly sequences of streamflow to be generated in relation to number of states and decision variables. Research on the design of computer experiments is necessary to improve simulation as a tool to estimate the quantitative effects of a given project.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Stanford University, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 349-357).

No description available.

Thesis (Ph. D. - Hydrology and Water Resources)--University of Arizona. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2004. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 288-298).

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23171号 / 工博第4815号 / 新制||工||1752(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 田中 茂信, 准教授 田中 賢治, 准教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Rice production plays an important role in the economy of the Mekong River Delta (MRD), but rice production is endangered by sea-level rise and the associated increased incidence of salinity intrusion. This study examines the diffusion of salt-tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) in the MRD that were promoted through Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environment (CURE) activities. Evidence is found of widespread adoption in salinity-prone areas, with CURE related varieties covering 47% of rice area in at least one of two growing seasons surveyed, but that adopting areas are highly clustered. Multivariate analysis reveals that location characteristics associated with high risk of salinity inundation, rather than individual characteristics associated with household risk preferences, explain the observed pattern of adoption in the MRD. In particular, CURE-related varieties are disproportionately likely to be adopted in non-irrigated areas and in irrigated areas that are not protected by salinity barrier gates. The results imply that CURE has effectively targeted unfavorable rice growing environments and that efforts to further diffuse STRVs need to both increase the area of suitability through further varietal adaptation and promote adoption in existing suitable areas by taking advantage of strong neighborhood externalities in household adoption decisions. In terms of varietal performance, inconclusive evidence is found of higher yields of CURE-related varieties in a low-salinity year. Further, any yield gains are more than off-set by lower market prices for CURE-related varieties. / Rice is a staple crop in the Vietnamese diet and one of Vietnam's leading exports. The Mekong River Delta (MRD) accounts for more than 90 percent of rice exports. However, rice production in the MRD is endangered by saltwater intrusion due to rising sea-levels. Farmers have adopted rice varieties that are tolerant to rice to reduce their production risk that were promoted through Consortium for Unfavorable Rice Environment (CURE) activities. This study examines the rates of adoption of these CURE-related varieties, the reasons farmers choose CURE-related varieties, and variety performance on farmers' fields. Results from a household-level survey show at 47% of fields in salinity-prone areas of the MRD grow a CURE-related variety in at least one of the areas two main rice-growing seasons. Farmers are particularly likely to adopt CURE-related varieties on fields that are not protected against salinity intrusion by gates. Adoption decisions are also highly correlated with neighbors’ decisions within villages. Finally, CURE- and non-CURE-related varieties yields are similar in a year with low levels of salinity intrusion. But revenues from CURE-related varieties are slightly lower due to their lower market price, suggesting CURE-related varieties are a relatively low-cost insurance policy for MRD rice farmers in salinity-prone areas against future salinity intrusion.

In recent years, the Mekong delta has been strongly developed both for agriculture and aquaculture. However, there is scope for a negative impact of agriculture on aquaculture in term of production and quality of seafood products. Specifically, the large amount of pesticides imported and used in the Mekong delta not only help agriculture purposes but can also easily enter aquatic systems and affect aquaculture. Pesticides can be transported in the environment by chemo-dynamic procedures and hydrological processes. As a result, pesticides used in agriculture become dispersed and their residues in sediment, water and biota have been detected in the Mekong delta. This study investigated the overall pesticide process including pesticide use, modelling pesticide accumulation and evaluating the potential impact on aquaculture sites for some target aquatic species. The risk of pesticides use in the Mekong delta was addressed in three stages: (1) investigating current pesticide use status in the Mekong delta; (2) modelling pesticide loss and accumulation; (3) classifying pesticide risk areas for aquaculture of target cultured species. A survey of 334 farms covering a total area of ~20,000km2 in the Mekong delta took place between 2008 and 2009. Information on pesticide types and quantities was recorded using questionnaires, and it was found that 96 pesticides in 23 groups were popularly used for agricultural purposes. Dicarboximide, Carbamate and Conazole had the highest use at ~3000, ~2000 and ~2000 g/ha/year respectively. The survey revealed an increase in pesticide use per hectare since previous surveys in the Mekong delta in 1994, 2000, and 2004. However, the highly persistent compounds (WHO classification classes II, III and IV) appeared to have reduced in use. Insecticides previously represented >50% of the total pesticides used, however, the resent survey has shown their use has decreased to ~38%.There was a parallel increase in use of fungicides from previous levels of <30% of total pesticides to more recently ~41%. The combination of pesticide information and geo-location data enabled display and analysis of this data spatially using a Geographic Information System (GIS). A pesticide loss and accumulation model was established through combination of several sub-models including sediment loss and accumulation, direct loss, and water runoff, all of which were implemented and integrated within the GIS environment. MUSLE (Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation) was used to estimate sediment loss and accumulation in the Mekong delta and the Curve Number method (CN Method) was applied to predict water runoff and discharges and flow accumulation. Modelling commenced from the first pesticide application in April, based on 4 day time-steps. All mathematical calculations run within each time step automatically reiterated in the following time step with the new input datasets. The results from fuzzy classification of the pesticide model outcomes were considered in terms of the 96hr lethal concentration (LC50) in order to classify the risk and non-risk areas for catfish and tiger shrimp culture. The sediment loss and accumulation model shows that the highest loss of sediment was in the rainy season, especially in May to October. Vegetables and short term crop areas were found be most strongly eroded. The MUSLE model showed that the highest sediment accumulation was in the hilly areas (~1066.42 tonne/ha/year); lower in riverside areas (~230.39 tonne/ha/year) and lowest in flooded paddy areas (~150.15tonne/ha/year). Abamectin was used as an example throughout this study to estimate pesticide loss and its effects on aquaculture. The results showed that pesticide loss by runoff and sediment loss is less than the loss by half-life degradation (for Abamectin specifically). Accumulation of Abamectin occurred at highest rate in May and October and decreased with time. The spatial models showed that pesticide residues concentrated in the river and riverside areas. In order to evaluate the acute toxicity impacts, three levels of water depth in ponds were modelled as culture depths for catfish and tiger shrimp. The results show that the highest risk areas for catfish occurred in May and October with ~333,000 and ~420,000 ha at a pond depth of 0.5 m; ~136,000 and ~183,000 ha at a pond depth of 1.0 m; and ~10,840 and ~19,000 ha at a pond depth of 1.5 m. Risk areas for catfish mainly concentrated at the riverside and in part of the coastal areas. For tiger shrimp, the risk periods during the year were similar to those found for catfish. The highest risk areas for shrimp were ~648,000 and ~771,000 ha at 0.5 m pond depth; ~346,000 and ~446,700 ha at 1.0 m pond depth; and ~185,000 and ~250,000 ha at 1.5 m pond depth. Overall, deeper ponds reduced the risk. This study has developed a method to evaluate the negative impact of input pesticides to the environment from agricultural use related to fluctuation of aquaculture risk areas. The research indicates the potential relationship between pesticide input and the risk areas for aquaculture. The model has several significant uses: 1) it can provide information to policy makers for a more harmonized development of both aquaculture and agriculture in the Mekong delta in the future, 2) it provides data for aquaculture investment analysis to decrease the hazards caused by pesticide impacts, and 3) it provides a model capable of application to wide field scenarios and suitable for any pesticide type.