The objective of this thesis was to investigate the effectiveness of kriging as a predictor of future prices for copper, lead and zinc on the London Metal Exchange. The annual average metal prices from 1884 to 1986 were deflated into constant price series with reference to a base of 1984 prices. Analysis of the data showed that the requirement of stationarity was satisfied if the price series were divided into three distinct time periods viz. 1884 to 1917; 1918 to 1953; 1954 to 1986. For copper each of the three time periods were studied in detail, but for lead and zinc only the most recent period was included in this thesis. Spherical models gave a good fit to the experimental semi-variograms computed for each metal-time period and were used to predict future prices by ordinary kriging. Universal Kriging was applied to the most recent time period for each metal by fitting a polynomial curve to the price-time series, computing experimental semi-variograms from the residuals and then fitting spherical models which were used to predict future prices. Within the most recent price-time series, a further subdivision was made by taking that portion of the period from the highest price to 1986. Experimental semi-variograms from the residuals from fitted polynomial curves showed pure nugget effect and consequently extrapolation of the polynomial was used as the price predictor. The kriged and extrapolated future price estimates were compared to future prices estimated by a simple random walk using residual sums of squared differences. For four of the five time series analyzed, ordinary kriging produced the best future price estimates. For copper from 1918 to 1953 , the simple random walk was marginally better than ordinary kriging. This was probably due to the low price variability in this period resulting from the Great Depression and government price controls associated with the Second World War and the Korean War. Specific forecasts for 1985 and 1986 were most accurate for copper and lead by universal kriging and most accurate for zinc by ordinary kriging. The results are encouraging and future investigations should include: applying other kriging methods : analyzing daily and monthly prices : comparing results with more sophisticated time series analysis techniques. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Mining Engineering, Keevil Institute of / Graduate

Tang, Sheung Yin. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 76-82). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- Models --- p.20 / Chapter 3.1 --- Single Regime GARCH Models --- p.20 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- "GARCH (1,1) Model" --- p.22 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- "EGARCH (1, 1) Model" --- p.24 / Chapter 3.1.3 --- GARCH-M (1，1) Model --- p.25 / Chapter 3.2 --- Markov Regime Switching GARCH Model --- p.26 / Chapter 4 --- Data and Descriptive Analysis --- p.37 / Chapter 4.1 --- Data --- p.37 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Unit Root and Stationary Tests --- p.39 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Tests for Conditional Heteroskedasticity --- p.40 / Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results and Discussion --- p.43 / Chapter 5.1 --- In-Sample Statistics --- p.44 / Chapter 5.2 --- Forecasting Performance --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Results of Statistical Loss Functions --- p.55 / Chapter 5.3 --- Tests of Equal Predictive Ability --- p.62 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Diebold-Mariano Test --- p.62 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Results of DM Test --- p.64 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.68 / A Forecasts from the Models --- p.72 / Bibliography --- p.76

Thesis (M.Com. (Finance))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2016. / Could not copy abstract

The Kalplats platinum group metal deposit is located in the Northwestern Province of South Africa, 80 km southwest of Mafikeng, in the Stella Layered Intrusion. The Stella Layered Intrusion intruded into the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt and is dated at 3.03 billion years. The Kraaipan Greenstone Belt is host to the 80 000 ounce per annum Kalgold Gold Mine. Platinum Group Element mineralized layers in the Stella Layered Intrusion are interpreted to occur in the overturned western limb of folds, formed by an eastward vergent compressional event. Three major reefs have been identified, namely the Lower Grade (LG) reef, the Mid Reef and the Main Reef. High grade reefs occur within these three. The average Pt:Pd ratio of the Main Reef is 1:1. Highest total precious metals content is concentrated in the Upper Main and Lower Main Reefs and the average grade for these two reefs is 4g/t. Open pit mining is suggested. The total inferred precious metals resource equates to 84Mt at an average grade of 1.4 g/t Pt+Pd+Au, for 3.9million ounces. Platinum, palladium and gold occur as fine grains. Maximum recoveries of approximately 72% are possible, from sulphide ore, using a twostage mill-float circuit. The estimated reserve (non-JORC compliant) is 26 Mt at an average grade of 2.01g/t Pt+Pd+Au, for 1.68 million ounces. A financial evaluation was done on the viability of the Kalplats deposit, using a discounted cash flow model. Future projections used were a R/$ exchange rate of R6-50 to the dollar and long-term metals prices of US$ 800/oz Pt, US$ 200/oz Pd and US$ 400/oz Au. The result of the discounted cash flow model was negative and indicated no return on capital and a negative Nett Present Value (NPV) of –R206 million at a discount of 13%. Factors impacting negatively on the viability of the project, include grade, metallurgical recovery, smelter fees, government royalties, metals prices and the Rand-US$ exchange rate. / Dissertation (MSc (Geology))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Geology / unrestricted

This project deals with historical precious metals price development as gold, silver, platinum and palladium in connection to analysis of the precious metals investment benefits. There are discussed international market prices and retail prices as well. There is also mentioned the issue of price structure from the premium and other costs point of view, including possible risks coupled with investment. Approximated are also basic terms and forms of investment metals, alternative options of precious metals investment as well. The project also includes the issue of tax investment aspects and other advantages connected to it. Further there is indicated medial disinformation criticism and insufficient legal support for customers investing to the precious metals.