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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting: Consumers versus Professional Forecasters

Yang, Yang 16 April 2014 (has links)
By using Michigan and SPF surveys, this thesis compares the group-level inflation-forecast performance as well as information transmission between two main market participation groups, consumers and professional forecasters. Group-level performance are in terms of forecasting different U.S. inflation indexes and evaluated using forecast accuracy measured by RMSE as well as predictive power tested by a linear model. In addition, consumers are decomposed into three sub-groups based on educational attainment and income distribution to explore within-group heterogeneity. The results indicate that both consumer groups and professionals show poor forecast performance for all the inflation measures, except professionals’ performance for CPI-Core. Further, gathering downward-biased inflation forecasts from professionals is a possible reason that contributes to highly educated consumers’ inflation-forecast performance for price changes of expenditure categories they care.

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