Numerous observations suggest that the elastic description of the subduction earthquake cycles is incomplete. Micro-seismicity is recorded in active margins that are believed to be locked, while peculiar extensional earthquakes occur in convergent plate boundaries following tsunami earthquakes. The morphology of active margins, which evolves on time scales of 100s of kyr, shows similarities to ongoing deformation documented over 10–100 yrs and the coastal domains of Cascadia, Chile, and other subduction zones record long-term uplift. Lastly, the very threshold where faults break and earthquake nucleate has been vigorously debated for years. In this thesis, I combine various geophysical tools to study short- and long-term processes and learn how their interplay can shape the deformation field imparted by earthquake cycles, mainly in the upper plate of subduction zones. In the first chapter, I analyze surface heat flow measurements taken in the proximity of the southern Dead Sea fault to demonstrate its friction is 0.27±0.17. In the second chapter, I compute an updated horizontal and vertical GNSS velocity field for Bangladesh, Myanmar, and adjacent regions. I show that the Kabaw fault, which lies east of the primary thrust system, is accommodating shortening that was initially attributed to the main thrust and demonstrate that the Indo-Burma subduction is locked, converging, and capable of hosting great megathrust events. In the third chapter, I use thermomechanical models to show that reducing the dip angle of a subducting slab, on a timescale of millions of years, can result in extensional fault failure above a megathrust earthquake on timescales of seconds to months. In the fourth chapter, I demonstrate how the buildup of interseismic elastic stresses brings sections of the forearc into compressional failure, which yields irreversible uplift of the coastal domain per evidence from Chile. Finally, I argue that combining short- and long-term processes into subduction zone models can better mitigate tsunami and earthquake hazards. I show how long-term reduction of slab dip angle could culminate in devastating tsunamis. I argue that the collection of long-term uplift records of upper plates or volcanic arc migration can constrain slab dip changes and so may identify areas with increased tsunami potential. In addition, upper plate irreversible deformation should be introduced to earthquake rupture models as these may hold significant implications for understanding and mitigating earthquake hazards.

Les données sismologiques enregistrées sur les îles océaniques offrent l'opportunité d'analyser la houle via sa signature dans le "bruit" microsismique. Nous avons d'abord analysé les sources de bruit « secondaires », qui sont générées par l'interaction entre des vagues de même période dans une tempête, un cyclone ou par le phénomène de réflexion des vagues sur la côte. L'analyse des « microséismes secondaires », à l'échelle du bassin océanique, permet d'assurer un suivi spatio-temporel de la source qui les génère, même si elle est distante de plusieurs milliers de km des stations sismiques d'enregistrement. À plus long terme, leur étude permet d'assurer un suivi climatique global de l'activité des vagues dans une région donnée. Nous avons également étudié les sources de bruit « primaires », qui sont générées par l'interaction directe de la houle avec la côte. L'analyse des « microséismes primaires » permet de caractériser la houle localement par son amplitude, sa période et sa direction de propagation. Il est alors possible d'utiliser un capteur sismique comme substitut d'un houlographe. Dans le contexte des îles Éparses et de La Réunion, nous avons étudié plusieurs épisodes de houles extrêmes qui les touchent fréquemment et qui peuvent avoir d'importantes répercutions sociales ou environnementales. Enfin, en utilisant un réseau temporaire de stations sismologiques à La Réunion, nous avons analysé les variations du niveau de bruit microsismique pour caractériser l'impact des houles extrêmes sur les différentes façades de l'île. Cette étude permet d'identifier les sites les plus exposés aux vagues qui présentent un intérêt pour la récupération de cette énergie renouvelable encore trop sous-exploitée. / Seismic data recorded on oceanic islands can be used to analyze the swell through its signature in the microseismic noise. We first analysed the "secondary" noise sources, which are generated by the interaction of ocean waves with similar period within a storm, a cyclone or by the reflection phenomena off the coast. By analyzing secondary microseisms at the scale of the oceanic basin, we first performed a spatio-temporal tracking of the source, even localized thousands km off the recording seismic stations. Secondly, in the long-term, they can be used to follow the global climate change related to the ocean waves activity in a specific region. We also studied the "primary" seismic noise sources, which are created by the direct interaction of ocean waves with the coast. By analyzing these primary microseisms, we succeeded to characterize ocean waves locally in terms of amplitude, period, and, sometimes, direction of propagation. This showed that it is possible to use a seismic station as an ocean waves gauge to get precious swell data, particularly in remote and poorly instrumented areas. In the context of the Iles Éparses and of La Réunion Island, we studied a few extreme swells, which occur there frequently and can have strong social and environmental consequences. Finally, by using a temporary network of seismic stations installed in La Reunion, we studied the spatial variations of the seismic noise level across the island to characterize the swell impact on the different coasts. This study enables us to identify the most exposed spots to the swell, which may be attractive for generating renewable energy with this powerful resource yet underexploited.

Kawah Ijen (2386 m) is a stratovolcano located within Ijen Caldera, at the easternmost<p>part of Java island in Indonesia. Since 2010, the volcano has been equipped with seismometers<p>and several sensors (temperature and level) have been immersed in its acidic lake waters and in the acidic river seeping on the volcano flanks. While finding instruments capable of resisting to such extreme conditions (pH~0) has been challenging, the coupling of lake monitoring techniques with seismic data improves the knowledge of the volcanic-hydrothermal dynamics. Moreover, the monitoring capabilities have been considerably<p>enhanced supporting the decision-making of the authorities in case of emergency.<p><p>Several methods and processing techniques were used to analyze the seismic data. Much effort has been given to implement the seismic velocities (Moving Window Cross Spectral Analysis (MWCSA)) calculations. At Kawah Ijen, the frequency band that is less affected by the volcanic tremor and the seasonal fluctuations at the source ranges between 0.5-1.0 Hz. Moreover, a stack of 5 days for the current CCF gives reliable results with low errors and allows to detect fluctuations which are missed using a 10-day stack.<p><p>The background seismic activity mostly consists in low frequency events and a continuous tremor of low amplitude. Fluctuations of the lake temperature and level result from the recharge of the hydrothermal system during the rainy season. Kawah Ijen lake waters are not perfectly mixed and a shallow stratification occurs during the rainy season, because meteoric waters are less dense than the lake fluids.<p><p>Different unrest occurred during our study. Some of them strongly affected the volcanic lake, while others did only weakly. In the first category, a strong unrest commenced in October 2011 with heightened VT (Volcano Tectonic) earthquakes and low frequency events activity, which culminated mid-December 2011. This unrest was correlated with an enhanced heat and hydrothermal fluids discharge to the crater and significant variations of the relative velocities (~1%). This suggests an important build-up of stress into the system. VT earthquakes opened pathways for the fluids to ascend, by increasing the permeability of the system, which latter allowed the initiation of monochromatic tremor (MT) when the steam/gases interacted with the shallow portions of the aquifer. Our calculations evidence a higher contribution of steam in March 2012 that might explain the increase of the MT frequency when bubbles were observed at the lake surface. This period was also characterized by short-lived but strong velocity variations, related to water level<p>rises containing important amount of bubbles, and important heat and mass discharges<p>into the lake. On the contrary, the second category of unrest did only slightly affect the<p>lake system. This could be explained by a dryer hydrothermal system and/or locations of<p>the seismic sources, which were not directly linked to the lake.<p><p>While a magmatic eruption will likely be preceded by a strong seismic activity, the major challenges remain to understand why the unrest we studied did not lead to an eruption and to identify precursory signs of a phreatic eruption. Even a small phreatic eruption would be devastating for the people working everyday in the crater and the ones<p>who live nearby the voluminous acidic lake. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished