<p>The number of MPC installations in industry is growing as a reaction to demands of increased efficiency. An MPC controller uses an internal plant model to run real-time predictive optimization of future inputs. If a discrepancy between the internal plant model and the plant exists, control performance will be affected. As time from commissioning increases the model accuracy tends to deteriorate. This is natural as the plant changes over time. It is important to detect these changes and re-identify the plant model to maintain control performance over time. A method for identifying Model Plant Mismatch for MPC applications is developed. Focus has been on developing a method that is simple to implement but still robust. The method is able to run in parallel with the process in real time. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated via representative simulation examples.An extension to detection of nonlinear mismatch is also considered, which is important since linear plant models often are used within a small operating range. Since most processes are nonlinear this discrepancy is inevitable and should be detected.</p> / <p>Ökade krav på effektivitet gör att industrin söker efter mer avancerad processtyrning. MPC har växt fram som en kandidat. En MPC regulator änvänder en modell av systemet för att samtidigt som systemet körs utföra en optimering av framtida styrsignaler. Om modellen innehåller felaktigheter kan reglerprestandan påverkas. En modell försämras normalt då tiden från idrifttagning växer eftersom systemet förändras med tiden. Det är av största vikt att upptäcka dessa förändringar och sedan uppdatera modellen för att reglerprestandan inte ska påverkas. Avsikten är att utveckla en metod för att upptäcka modellfel med fokus på att den ska vara enkel att implementera. Det ska även vara möjligt att använda metoden parallellt med en process. För att utvärdera metoden så körs den på ett antal representativa simuleringsexempel. Det har även varit en avsikt att utveckla en metod för detektion av ickelinjära modellfel. Motivet till det är att linjära modeller används för att beskriva ickelinjära processer och då är modellfel naturliga.</p>

The number of MPC installations in industry is growing as a reaction to demands of increased efficiency. An MPC controller uses an internal plant model to run real-time predictive optimization of future inputs. If a discrepancy between the internal plant model and the plant exists, control performance will be affected. As time from commissioning increases the model accuracy tends to deteriorate. This is natural as the plant changes over time. It is important to detect these changes and re-identify the plant model to maintain control performance over time. A method for identifying Model Plant Mismatch for MPC applications is developed. Focus has been on developing a method that is simple to implement but still robust. The method is able to run in parallel with the process in real time. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated via representative simulation examples.An extension to detection of nonlinear mismatch is also considered, which is important since linear plant models often are used within a small operating range. Since most processes are nonlinear this discrepancy is inevitable and should be detected. / Ökade krav på effektivitet gör att industrin söker efter mer avancerad processtyrning. MPC har växt fram som en kandidat. En MPC regulator änvänder en modell av systemet för att samtidigt som systemet körs utföra en optimering av framtida styrsignaler. Om modellen innehåller felaktigheter kan reglerprestandan påverkas. En modell försämras normalt då tiden från idrifttagning växer eftersom systemet förändras med tiden. Det är av största vikt att upptäcka dessa förändringar och sedan uppdatera modellen för att reglerprestandan inte ska påverkas. Avsikten är att utveckla en metod för att upptäcka modellfel med fokus på att den ska vara enkel att implementera. Det ska även vara möjligt att använda metoden parallellt med en process. För att utvärdera metoden så körs den på ett antal representativa simuleringsexempel. Det har även varit en avsikt att utveckla en metod för detektion av ickelinjära modellfel. Motivet till det är att linjära modeller används för att beskriva ickelinjära processer och då är modellfel naturliga.

A crescente demanda pela melhoria operacional dos processos aliada ao desenvolvimento da tecnologia da informação tornam a utilização de controladores preditivos baseados em modelos (MPC) uma prática comum na indústria. Estes controladores estimam, a partir dos dados de planta e de um modelo do processo, uma sequência de ações de controle que levam as variáveis ao valor desejado de forma otimizada. Dessa forma, dentre os parâmetros de configuração de um MPC, a baixa qualidade do modelo é, indiscutivelmente, a mais importante fonte de degradação de seu desempenho. Este trabalho propõe uma série de metodologias para a avaliação da qualidade do modelo do controlador preditivo, as quais consideram sua velocidade em malha fechada. Tais metodologias são baseadas na filtragem dos erros de simulação a partir função nominal de sensibilidade, e possuem a capacidade de informar o impacto dos problemas de modelagem no desempenho do sistema, além de localizar as variáveis controladas que estão com tais problemas e se os mesmos são provenientes de uma discrepância no modelo ou de um distúrbio não medido. As técnicas ainda possuem a vantagem de serem independentes do setpoint, o que as torna flexível de também serem utilizadas em controladores nos quais as variáveis são controladas por faixas. A abordagem proposta foi testada em dois estudos de caso simulados, sendo eles: a Fracionadora de Óleo Pesado da Shell e a Planta de Quatro tanques Cilíndricos. As técnicas também foram avaliadas em dados de processo da Unidade de Coqueamento Retardado de uma refinaria. Os resultados indicam que as mesmas apresentam resultados coerentes, corroborando seu elevado potencial de aplicação industrial. / The growing demand for operational improvement and the development of information technology make the use of model predictive controllers (MPCs) a common practice in industry. This kind of controller uses past plant data and a process model to estimate a sequence of control actions to lead the variables to a desired value following an optimal policy. Thus, the model quality is the most important source of MPC performance degradation. This work proposes a series of methods to investigate the controller model quality taking into account its closed loop performance. The methods are based on filtering the simulation errors using the nominal sensitivity function. They are capable detect the impact of modeling problems in the controller performance, and also to locate the controlled variables that have such problems and if it is caused by a model-plant mismatch or unmeasured disturbance. The techniques have the advantage to be setpoint independent, making them flexible to be also used in MPCs with controlled variables working by range. The proposed approach was tested in two simulated case studies The Shell Heavy Oil Fractionator Process and The Quadruple-tanks Process. The methods are also evaluated in process data of the Delayed Coking Unit of a Brazilian refinery. Results indicate that the method is technically coherent and has high potential of industrial application.

A crescente demanda pela melhoria operacional dos processos aliada ao desenvolvimento da tecnologia da informação tornam a utilização de controladores preditivos baseados em modelos (MPC) uma prática comum na indústria. Estes controladores estimam, a partir dos dados de planta e de um modelo do processo, uma sequência de ações de controle que levam as variáveis ao valor desejado de forma otimizada. Dessa forma, dentre os parâmetros de configuração de um MPC, a baixa qualidade do modelo é, indiscutivelmente, a mais importante fonte de degradação de seu desempenho. Este trabalho propõe uma série de metodologias para a avaliação da qualidade do modelo do controlador preditivo, as quais consideram sua velocidade em malha fechada. Tais metodologias são baseadas na filtragem dos erros de simulação a partir função nominal de sensibilidade, e possuem a capacidade de informar o impacto dos problemas de modelagem no desempenho do sistema, além de localizar as variáveis controladas que estão com tais problemas e se os mesmos são provenientes de uma discrepância no modelo ou de um distúrbio não medido. As técnicas ainda possuem a vantagem de serem independentes do setpoint, o que as torna flexível de também serem utilizadas em controladores nos quais as variáveis são controladas por faixas. A abordagem proposta foi testada em dois estudos de caso simulados, sendo eles: a Fracionadora de Óleo Pesado da Shell e a Planta de Quatro tanques Cilíndricos. As técnicas também foram avaliadas em dados de processo da Unidade de Coqueamento Retardado de uma refinaria. Os resultados indicam que as mesmas apresentam resultados coerentes, corroborando seu elevado potencial de aplicação industrial. / The growing demand for operational improvement and the development of information technology make the use of model predictive controllers (MPCs) a common practice in industry. This kind of controller uses past plant data and a process model to estimate a sequence of control actions to lead the variables to a desired value following an optimal policy. Thus, the model quality is the most important source of MPC performance degradation. This work proposes a series of methods to investigate the controller model quality taking into account its closed loop performance. The methods are based on filtering the simulation errors using the nominal sensitivity function. They are capable detect the impact of modeling problems in the controller performance, and also to locate the controlled variables that have such problems and if it is caused by a model-plant mismatch or unmeasured disturbance. The techniques have the advantage to be setpoint independent, making them flexible to be also used in MPCs with controlled variables working by range. The proposed approach was tested in two simulated case studies The Shell Heavy Oil Fractionator Process and The Quadruple-tanks Process. The methods are also evaluated in process data of the Delayed Coking Unit of a Brazilian refinery. Results indicate that the method is technically coherent and has high potential of industrial application.

A crescente demanda pela melhoria operacional dos processos aliada ao desenvolvimento da tecnologia da informação tornam a utilização de controladores preditivos baseados em modelos (MPC) uma prática comum na indústria. Estes controladores estimam, a partir dos dados de planta e de um modelo do processo, uma sequência de ações de controle que levam as variáveis ao valor desejado de forma otimizada. Dessa forma, dentre os parâmetros de configuração de um MPC, a baixa qualidade do modelo é, indiscutivelmente, a mais importante fonte de degradação de seu desempenho. Este trabalho propõe uma série de metodologias para a avaliação da qualidade do modelo do controlador preditivo, as quais consideram sua velocidade em malha fechada. Tais metodologias são baseadas na filtragem dos erros de simulação a partir função nominal de sensibilidade, e possuem a capacidade de informar o impacto dos problemas de modelagem no desempenho do sistema, além de localizar as variáveis controladas que estão com tais problemas e se os mesmos são provenientes de uma discrepância no modelo ou de um distúrbio não medido. As técnicas ainda possuem a vantagem de serem independentes do setpoint, o que as torna flexível de também serem utilizadas em controladores nos quais as variáveis são controladas por faixas. A abordagem proposta foi testada em dois estudos de caso simulados, sendo eles: a Fracionadora de Óleo Pesado da Shell e a Planta de Quatro tanques Cilíndricos. As técnicas também foram avaliadas em dados de processo da Unidade de Coqueamento Retardado de uma refinaria. Os resultados indicam que as mesmas apresentam resultados coerentes, corroborando seu elevado potencial de aplicação industrial. / The growing demand for operational improvement and the development of information technology make the use of model predictive controllers (MPCs) a common practice in industry. This kind of controller uses past plant data and a process model to estimate a sequence of control actions to lead the variables to a desired value following an optimal policy. Thus, the model quality is the most important source of MPC performance degradation. This work proposes a series of methods to investigate the controller model quality taking into account its closed loop performance. The methods are based on filtering the simulation errors using the nominal sensitivity function. They are capable detect the impact of modeling problems in the controller performance, and also to locate the controlled variables that have such problems and if it is caused by a model-plant mismatch or unmeasured disturbance. The techniques have the advantage to be setpoint independent, making them flexible to be also used in MPCs with controlled variables working by range. The proposed approach was tested in two simulated case studies The Shell Heavy Oil Fractionator Process and The Quadruple-tanks Process. The methods are also evaluated in process data of the Delayed Coking Unit of a Brazilian refinery. Results indicate that the method is technically coherent and has high potential of industrial application.

Process models are always associated with uncertainty, due to either inaccurate model structure or inaccurate identification. If left unaccounted for, these uncertainties can significantly affect the model-based decision-making. This thesis addresses the problem of model-based optimization in the presence of uncertainties, especially due to model structure error. The optimal solution from standard optimization techniques is often associated with a certain degree of uncertainty and if the model-plant mismatch is very significant, this solution may have a significant bias with respect to the actual process optimum. Accordingly, in this thesis, we developed new strategies to reduce (1) the variability in the optimal solution and (2) the bias between the predicted and the true process optima. Robust optimization is a well-established methodology where the variability in optimization objective is considered explicitly in the cost function, leading to a solution that is robust to model uncertainties. However, the reported robust formulations have few limitations especially in the context of nonlinear models. The standard technique to quantify the effect of model uncertainties is based on the linearization of underlying model that may not be valid if the noise in measurements is quite high. To address this limitation, uncertainty descriptions based on the Bayes’ Theorem are implemented in this work. Since for nonlinear models the resulting Bayesian uncertainty may have a non-standard form with no analytical solution, the propagation of this uncertainty onto the optimum may become computationally challenging using conventional Monte Carlo techniques. To this end, an approach based on Polynomial Chaos expansions is developed. It is shown in a simulated case study that this approach resulted in drastic reductions in the computational time when compared to a standard Monte Carlo sampling technique. The key advantage of PC expansions is that they provide analytical expressions for statistical moments even if the uncertainty in variables is non-standard. These expansions were also used to speed up the calculation of likelihood function within the Bayesian framework. Here, a methodology based on Multi-Resolution analysis is proposed to formulate the PC based approximated model with higher accuracy over the parameter space that is most likely based on the given measurements. For the second objective, i.e. reducing the bias between the predicted and true process optima, an iterative optimization algorithm is developed which progressively corrects the model for structural error as the algorithm proceeds towards the true process optimum. The standard technique is to calibrate the model at some initial operating conditions and, then, use this model to search for an optimal solution. Since the identification and optimization objectives are solved independently, when there is a mismatch between the process and the model, the parameter estimates cannot satisfy these two objectives simultaneously. To this end, in the proposed methodology, corrections are added to the model in such a way that the updated parameter estimates reduce the conflict between the identification and optimization objectives. Unlike the standard estimation technique that minimizes only the prediction error at a given set of operating conditions, the proposed algorithm also includes the differences between the predicted and measured gradients of the optimization objective and/or constraints in the estimation. In the initial version of the algorithm, the proposed correction is based on the linearization of model outputs. Then, in the second part, the correction is extended by using a quadratic approximation of the model, which, for the given case study, resulted in much faster convergence as compared to the earlier version. Finally, the methodologies mentioned above were combined to formulate a robust iterative optimization strategy that converges to the true process optimum with minimum variability in the search path. One of the major findings of this thesis is that the robust optimal solutions based on the Bayesian parametric uncertainty are much less conservative than their counterparts based on normally distributed parameters.

Run-of-mine ore milling circuits are generally difficult to control owing to the presence of strong external disturbances, poor process models and the unavailability of important process variable measurements. These shortcomings are common for processes in the mineral-processing industry. For processes that fall into this class, the peripheral control tools in the control loop are considered to be as important as the controller itself. This work addresses the implementation of peripheral control tools on a run-of-mine ore milling circuit to help overcome the deteriorated control performance resulting from the aforementioned shortcomings. The effects of strong external disturbances are suppressed through the application of a disturbance observer. A fractional order disturbance observer is also implemented and a novel Bode ideal cutoff disturbance observer is introduced. The issue of poor process models is addressed through the detection of significant mismatch between the actual plant and the available model from process data. A closed-form expression is given for the case where the controller has a transfer function. If the controller does not have a transfer function, a partial correlation analysis is used to detect the transfer function elements in the model transfer function matrix that contain significant mismatch. The mill states and important mill parameters are estimated with the use of particle filters. Simultaneous state and parameter estimation is compared with a novel dual particle filtering scheme. A sensitivity analysis shows the class of systems for which dual estimation would provide superiorestimation accuracy over simultaneous estimation. The implemented peripheral control tools show promise for current milling circuits where proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control is prevalent, and also for advanced control strategies, such as model predictive control, which are expected to become more common in the future. AFRIKAANS : Maalkringe wat onbehandelde erts maal is oor die algemeen moeilik om te beheer as gevolg van die teenwoordigheid van sterk eksterne steurings, onakkurate aanlegmodelle en metings van belangrike prosesveranderlikes wat ontbreek. Hierdie probleme is algemeen vir aanlegte in die mineraalprosesseringsbedryf. Vir aanlegte in hierdie klas word die randbeheerinstrumente as net so belangrik as die beheerder beskou. Hierdie verhandeling beskryf die implementering van randbeheerinstrumente vir ’n maalkring wat onbehandelde erts maal, om die verswakte beheerverrigting teen te werk wat veroorsaak word deur bogenoemde probleme. Die impak van sterk eksterne steurings word teengewerk deur die implementering van ’n steuringsafskatter. ’n Breuk-orde-steuringsafskatter is ook geïmplementeer en ’n nuwe Bode ideale afsnysteuringsafskatter word voorgestel. Die kwessie van onakkurate aanlegmodelle word hanteer deur van die aanlegdata af vas te stel of daar ’n verskil is tussen die aanleg en die beskikbare model van die aanleg. ’n Uitdrukking word gegee vir hierdie verskil vir die geval waar die beheerder met ’n oordragsfunksie voorgestel kan word. Indien die beheerder nie ’n oordragsfunksie het nie, word van ‘n parsiële korrelasie-analise gebruik gemaak om die element, of elemente, in die aanleg se oordragsfunksiematriks te identifiseer wat van die werklike aanleg verskil. Die toestande en belangrike parameters in die meul word beraam deur van partikel-filters gebruikte maak. Gelyktydige toestand- en parameter-beraming word vergelyk met ’n nuwe dubbel-partikelfilter skema. ’n Sensitiwiteitsanalise wys die klas van stelsels waarvoor dubbel-afskatting meer akkurate waardes sal gee as gelyktydige afskatting. Die voorgestelde randbeheerinstrumente is toepaslik vir huidige maalkringe waar PID-beheer algemeen is, asook vir gevorderde beheerstrategieë, soos model-voorspellende beheer, wat na verwagting in die toekoms meer algemeen sal word. Copyright / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / unrestricted

Proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller tuning guidelines in process industry have been in place for over six decades. Nevertheless despite their long design history PID tuning has remained an ‘art’ and no single comprehensive solution yet exists. In this study various considerations, with new and different perspectives, have been taken into account in PID tuning design. This study explores the issue of PID tuning from a practical point of view with particular focus on robust design in the presence of typical problems in process industry: process changes, valve stiction effects and unmeasured disturbances. The IMC tuning rule is recommended for setpoint tracking, while in the case of regulation, a newly proposed tuning rule, based on a combination of IMC and Ziegler-Nichols method, is demonstrated to give satisfactory results. The results were evaluated by simulation and were also validated on a computer-interfaced pilot scale continuous stirred tank heater (CSTH) process. / Chemical Engineering

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