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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Comparison of mortality rate forecasting using the Second Order Lee–Carter method with different mortality models

Sulemana, Hisham January 2019 (has links)
Mortality information is very important for national planning and health of a country. Mortality rate forecasting is a basic contribution for the projection of financial improvement of pension plans, well-being and social strategy planning. In the first part of the thesis, we fit the selected mortality rate models, namely the Power-exponential function based model, the ModifiedPerks model and the Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model to the data obtained from the HumanMortality Database [22] for the male population ages 1–70 of the USA, Japan and Australia. We observe that the Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model performs well and better fit the data as compared to the Power-exponential function based model and the Modified Perks model. The second part is to systematically compare the quality of the mortality rate forecasting using the second order Lee–Carter method with the selected mortality rate models. The results indicate that Power-exponential function based model and the Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model gives a more reliable forecast depending on individual countries.

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