Thesis (M.A.)--Guo li zheng zhi da xue. / Cover title. Reproduced from typescript. Includes bibliographical references.

This study investigates the macroeconomic consequences of firm-level accounting conservatism. Consistent with conditional conservatism extending to the aggregate level, I demonstrate that annual estimates of aggregate corporate profits and gross domestic product from 1929 to 2007 compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis are more sensitive to negative aggregate cash flow news than to positive aggregate cash flow news. Next, I estimate the dollar value impact of firm-level accounting conservatism on measurements of macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, I show that the federal funds rate set by the U.S. Federal Reserve tends to be lower when the dollar value impact of firm-level accounting conservatism on gross domestic product measurements is larger. These results suggest that accounting can impact social welfare by altering the measurement attributes of key macroeconomic indicators and shaping monetary policy decisions which regulate the money supply and alter macroeconomic growth. / text

This thesis addresses the issue of the existence of a causal relationship between the change in the food component of the consumer price index and change in the money supply (money base and M1) by using monthly Canadian data from January 1968 to March 1997. A bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to describe the relationship between money supply and food price on the basis of identifying the two conditions that the three series are first difference stationary series and the money stock and price series are not cointegrated. Saunders' lag order selection criterion developed from Akaikes final prediction error (FPE), and Hsiao's lag selection procedure are used to identify the order of lags of each variable in VAR model. The models perform well through all diagnostic checks. All hypotheses are tested by using the likelihood ratio statistic and the chi2-statistic. The Granger test of causality is discussed and implemented in this research. By comparing the causality results of the seasonally adjusted series with those of seasonally unadjusted series we find that they are very sensitive to the seasonal adjustment of the series. For the seasonally adjusted series there is no relationship between money base (MB) and the food component of the consumer price index (FCPI) and there is a unidirectional causal relationship between M1 and FCPI (from M1 to FCPI). But for the seasonally unadjusted series there is a feedback relationship between M1 and FCPI and there is a unidirectional flow from MB to FCPI. The difference of the results is consistent with the findings of Sargent and other writers.

The purpose of this thesis is to explain theoretically and empirically the demand for international reserves by the major industrialized countries in the context of the present highly integrated and extremely volatile international financial system. The reserves demand behaviour of each of the G7 countries along with seven non-G7 industrialized countries have been empirically examined. The demand functions are estimated using the cointegration approach on autoregressive distributed lag and simple distributed lag models. / This study has revealed that a country's reserve demand is significantly influenced by its level of capital flows in addition to the traditionally used trade flow variables. It is shown that the greater the external vulnerability of an economy as measured by its net capital flows in relation to its GNP, the higher is its demand for international reserves. The results have striking similarity for all the 14 industrialized countries despite their structural and institutional differences. / This study points to the need of international monetary policy coordination to reduce large fluctuations in exchange rates and lessen massive flows of speculative capital which carry a potential threat of becoming inflationary.

Previous research has documented a negative relation between inflation and stock returns in the U.S. and selected developed countries during the post-war era. Their findings are inconsistent with the classical theory that real returns to the ownership of capital goods, such as stocks, are invariant to the general price level. / There seems to be a foregone conclusion that in the short-run when counter-cyclical measures are applied by developed countries to contain inflation, stock returns are negatively related to inflation. It will be interesting to know whether the above observation can also be found in emerging markets such as Hong Kong. / This paper finds that stock returns and inflation in Hong Kong are generally positively related, but the relation is statistically insignificant. It also finds that there is a reverse causal relation through which stock returns influence inflation in Hong Kong. This wealth effect is evident in all three periods tested, and is statistically significant in two of the three tested periods. / This paper finds that money supply (“M2”) can be a good indicator of stock market performance. We find that M2 is positively related to stock returns in Hong Kong in all three periods tested with very significant t-statistics. Investors can use this information to enhance their prediction of the overall stock market performance and thus improve their investment return. / U.S. investors can invest in Hong Kong stocks to enhance their real return. This paper finds that there is a positive relation between U.S. inflation and Hong Kong stock market return which may qualify Hong Kong stocks as a hedge against inflation for U.S. investors. As an emerging market, Hong Kong's inflation has been higher than that in the U.S. Stock market returns are also higher than those in the U.S. in nominal terms and in real terms against U.S. inflation. Also, the currency board system implemented in Hong Kong has virtually eliminated currency risk for U.S. investors during the past 20 years, although there is no guarantee that such a system will remain forever. However, we find that the portfolio performance of Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks, adjusted for the volatility factor, have been very similar during the last two decades. We therefore are not able to conclude that investing in Hong Kong stocks is superior to investing in U.S. stocks. U.S. investors should consider their portfolio mix and risk tolerance level carefully before investing in Hong Kong stocks. / Although the positive relation between inflation and stock market return found in this paper is not statistically significant, we did find a strong negative relation between deflation and stock returns during the deflationary period in Hong Kong. This result is statistically significant and is in general consistent with our finding of the positive relation between inflation and stock returns, but much stronger statistically. As recent developments indicate that the likelihood of the world economy experiencing disinflation or deflation is increasing, more studies should be done regarding the relation between deflation and other economic variables, such as stock returns. / Thesis (PhDBusinessandManagement)--University of South Australia, 2004.

Thesis (M.A.)--Guo li zheng zhi da xue. / Cover title. Reproduced from typescript. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Chicago, 1964. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 1989. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 187-192).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references.

No description available.