在全球化和改革開放的進程中，中國在各方面巳經取得了長足的進步，另一方面，外來衝擊也更容易侵入。在本文中我們主要關注世界上最大的兩個經濟體，中國和美國，通過貨幣政策所產生的聯繫。我們建立了若干個VAR 模型來分析美國貨幣政策的改變對於中國的影響以及意義。 / 我們發現，匯率波動是最主要的傳導渠道。基於這一點，文中的分析被劃分為兩個子時間段，以2005 年7 月的匯率改革為分隔點。在兩個時間段中，擴張性的美國貨幣政策衝擊都會引起流入中國的國際資本顯著增加，並以非FDI 的“熱錢"流入為主。在匯率改革之前，這一資本流入主要引起不可貿易品的需求增加，從而其相對價格提高，引起實際匯率升值，而對於經常賬戶和貿易收支的影響較小。相比之下，在匯率改革之後，這一資本流入引起的實際匯率升值主要通過名義匯率的調整來實現。雖然國內通貨膨脹壓力降低， 實際匯率波幅也沒有顯著上升，但是由於名義匯率變化對於出口的傳遞程度較高，貿易收支在短期內會明顯惡化。 / 為了增強分析的有效性和魯棒性，我們修改了VAR 的結構來觀察這一傳導機制隨著時間的演進。結果證明了最主要的轉折點出現在匯改附近，同時變量之間逐年的動態闕係也證明了以上的結論。 / 這些結果表明，在名義匯率和經常賬戶的穩定性，以及國內通貨膨脹的穩定性之間，存在著一個權衡關係。雖然對於浮動匯率制是否會帶來更高的實際匯率波動性本文並未發現很強的證據，但是我們觀察到它導致了經常賬戶更加劇烈的波動。在某些情況下，名義匯率升值甚至可以引起短暫的通貨緊縮現象，這在固定匯率制下是不會出現的。因此，邁向浮動匯率制的副作用不可被完全忽略，其中隱含的風險也在一定程度上說明了“浮動恐懼"這一普遍現象的合理性。 / On the transition path to a more globalized and open economy, China has witnessed a great progress in many aspects; meanwhile, external shocks are more likely to invade. In this work we focus on the connection between two largest economies, China and the US, through the channel of monetary policy innovations. Several structural VAR models are developed to analyze what a change in monetary policy stance of US implies for the Chinese economy and why this is important. / The principal transmission channel is through adjustment in exchange rates. We divide our analysis into two sub-periods based on the exchange rate reform in July 2005. Across both periods following an expansionary US monetary policy shock there is a burst of capital inflows concentrated within the first year that are dominated by non-FDI inflows, i.e., “hot money“. Before the exchange rate reform, these capital inflows lead to a rise in the demand for non-tradable goods, driving up their relative price, thereby achieving a real exchange rate appreciation. The effect on trade balance is relatively small. / Comparatively, after the exchange rate reform, real exchange rate appreciates due to the surge of capital inflows more through changes in nominal exchange rate. The inflationary pressure is alleviated significantly, and the short-run volatility of real exchange rate slightly increases. However, the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes into exports is much higher, resulting in a short-run deterioration in trade balance severely. / To verify the validity and enhance the robustness of our analysis, we revise the identifying VARs to investigate the evolution of transmission over time. We show that the most significant turning point of the transmission channel coincides with the exchange rate reform, and comparison among dynamics of variables on a year-by-year basis confirms the previous conclusions. / It seems that there is a trade-off between the stability of nominal exchange rate and the current account, on the one hand, and the stabilization of inflation, on the other hand. Although we find only weak evidence that a more free-floating nominal exchange rate will lead to higher volatility in the real exchange rate, it may introduce higher short-run volatility in the current account. In some cases the appreciation in nominal exchange rate even generates a transitory deflationary effect that is absent under the pegged system. Therefore, the side effects of stepping toward a flexible exchange rate regime must be considered; the potential risk it involves justifies the “fear of floating“ to some extent. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Yang, Minmin. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-110). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.v / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions and Major Findings --- p.5 / Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- Open Economy Theories --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Research on International Transmission --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3 --- China as an Open Economy --- p.15 / Chapter 3 --- Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1 --- Traditional Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Transmission under Fixed Exchange Rate Regime --- p.19 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Transmission under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime --- p.25 / Chapter 3.2 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Capital Control --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Sterilization --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.30 / Chapter 3.3 --- Summary --- p.36 / Chapter 4 --- Data and Methodology --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- Vector Autoregression --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARs models for the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Benchmark VAR to IdentifyMonetary Policy Shocks in the US --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Extend the Benchmark VAR to Include Chinese Variables --- p.45 / Chapter 4.3 --- Data --- p.50 / Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results --- p.57 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.57 / Chapter 5.2 --- Transmission before the Exchange Rate reform --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.62 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.64 / Chapter 5.3 --- Transmission after the Exchange Rate Reform --- p.66 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.69 / Chapter 5.4 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.70 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Capital Control --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- Sterilization --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.72 / Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.77 / Chapter 6 --- Robustness: Structural Break in the Transmission --- p.79 / Chapter 6.1 --- Methodology --- p.80 / Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.87 / Chapter 6.3 --- Summary --- p.91 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion and Future Work --- p.92 / Bibliography --- p.101

published_or_final_version / Economics / Master / Master of Social Sciences

by Mak Nak Keung. / Bibliography: leaves 143-148 / Thesis (M.Phil.) -- Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1983

by Chan Po-ming. / Thesis (M.Ph.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1984 / Bibliography: leaves 104-108

M.Comm. / The object of this study is to critically appraise the fundamental models, technical methods and statistical techniques that constitute the bulk of exchange rate forecasting methodology. Specifically, can any single approach, or combination of techniques, predict or explain the volatile currency movements characterising exchange rate behaviour in the modern international currency market? International currency markets are indeed complex in nature, and the layperson may be excused for not grasping the distinction between the fundamental, technical and statistical techniques described in the hypothesis. It is vital, however, for the comprehension of this study that the distinction between these approaches be explained, and the logic underlying their individual methodologies examined. It may prima facie seem that this study is based on a contradiction. Surely if one wants to predict an economic variable of any kind, one should refer to the economic theory upon which it is based as the starting point of an analysis. Consequently, if the objective is to forecast the future value of a currency, surely there are a great many economic texts that deal with this very question in voluminous detail. Why, then, should yet another paper be written when so much literature already exists? The answer lies not so much in the scope as in the purpose of this work. The aim of this study can be paraphrased. as follows: to provide a comprehensive and critical examination of the various methods of exchange rate forecasting and to explain why economic theory is still deficient in this important area. The question of whether or not short-term' exchange rates are able to be forecast at all will also be critically examined. This study will attempt to elucidate that while fundamental currency speculation models do provide a certain degree of guidance to currency-traders in their daily prognostications, these models are, in the context of modern capital markets, inadequate. At best, these models will be shown as trackers of long-term exchange rate trends, and not always accurate ones at that. Further, it will be demonstrated that the modern trading floors are characterised (if not defined) by split-second price changes, where the long-term'' can mean a minute, and he who hesitates is lost. It is in this setting that traders must do battle for profit, and where the fundamental models that seem to serve so well in textbooks are anachronisms. The study then shifts its focus to a subset of technical analysis known as charting, the objective being to fill the void which arises due to the fundamental models' inadequacies in the short-term. The charting techniques utilised in this study deviate from their fundamental counterparts in that they attempt to explain future exchangerate trends in terms of past performance. That is, exogenous changes are factored out of the forecasting equation, to give way to a methodology based on trendextrapolation. The performance of these models, especially as they pertain to the medium- and short-term., will then be determined. Finally, in an attempt to supplement the use of charts as a forecasting tool, statistical analysis will be considered. The model utilised in this section will be a rudimentary auto-regressive process. Its simplicity, however, belies its consequence. That is, considering that no ubiquitous statistical model dominates exchange rate theory, it is reasonable to assume that an auto-regressive process, such as the one contributed by this study, will not be subordinate to other, more complex, quantitative offerings. Thus this study attempts to provide the necessary insights in order to perspicaciously 1 It should be noted here that the terms "short-term" and "short run" are interchangeable. For the purposes of consistency, only the former term shall be employed throughout this study. 2 The terms "long-term" and "long run" are also interchangeable. For the purposes of consistency, only the former term shall be employed throughout this study. ascertain the proficiency of statistical analysis as an accurate forecaster of exchange rate fluctuations. All of the models and methods examined in this study adopt a pragmatic acid-test. That is to say, if the predictions made as a result of adherence to the models do not comply accurately and consistently with real findings, then the models themselves should be revised. This revision can be in terms of the time-frame to which the model pertains, the application of the model, or the model itself. It must, however, be stressed that a model whose very raison d'etre lies in its ability to predict exchange rate movements must be able to do so without qualifications or exceptions. The methodology adopted in analysing the models themselves is therefore positive as opposed to normative. Thus, even in the "organised chaos" of the modern exchange rate markets, the application of the models should yield satisfactory results. In other words, despite the unprecedented volumes, speed and volatility of the currencies that are traded in the modern arena, the models themselves should still be able to achieve their purpose - to forecast the extent and direction of changes in the par value of a currency. The next logical question is: what is meant by the "organised chaos", and specifically why should this influence the predictive ability of the fundamental, technical and statistical methods of exchange rate forecasting? The answer to this can be introduced as follows. On an almost daily basis, currency traders move an excess of one trillion dollars throughout the world. Adding to the gravity of this somewhat overwhelming statistic is that most of these are intercomputer transactions occurring instantaneously via inter-bank wire-transfers. In fact, the volume of currency traded is so great that if one were to sum the trading of all the Saudi oil, American wheat, European aircraft and Japanese cars, the monetary result would seem pithy in comparison (Millman, 1995:xxi). It is, however, not only the sheer volumes of currencies traded that characterise the international money markets. It is perhaps more importantly the unanticipated and unparalleled volatility of the markets themselves which provides the greatest quandary for those who conform to 'traditional' methods of exchange rate determination. It is all too common, in fact, for currency prices to change on a minute-to-minute or even second-to-second basis. Exchange rates are thus in a constant state of flux. The significant though infrequent changes of past years have been terminally disposed of. The inception of the microcomputer and the floating exchange rate system currently dominating the greater world economy has irrevocably altered what was considered a flawed order. It is this very metamorphosis which will be examined in detail, specifically how fundamental models have assumed a differing purpose to those used by modern speculators, hedgers and arbitrageurs in their specific fields of application. Thus it will be shown how the changing paradigm of the world economy and consequently the currency trading floors themselves necessitate neoteric predictive powers, that is, the power to forecast currency changes not in terms of years, months or even weeks, but rather in terms of days, minutes and seconds. The object of this thesis will therefore be to show that a definite dichotomy has developed between the exchange rate models espoused in economic textbooks and the techniques upon which the de facto day-to-day buying and selling of currencies depend. The efficacy of this study consequently hinges on one decisive question - is there truly a consistent and precise method of forecasting exchange rates?

Submitted by Elba Lopes (elba.lopes@fecap.br) on 2018-01-24T21:21:42Z No. of bitstreams: 2 OT??VIO ULISSES DE ARAUJO SANT???ANNA.pdf: 846230 bytes, checksum: 0957b14111500cc9a380bb419acae8ae (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-24T21:21:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 OT??VIO ULISSES DE ARAUJO SANT???ANNA.pdf: 846230 bytes, checksum: 0957b14111500cc9a380bb419acae8ae (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-24 / This study analyzes the performance of the Brazilian hedge fund investment after Subprime Crisis. Evaluates if the different management strategies hedge funds manage to overcome the benchmark, considering the new classification established by ANBIMA in May 2009. The categories were classified as Long & Short Directional Long & Short Neutral, Multigestor Macro, Multiestrat??gia, Interest and Currencies, Trading, Strategy specifies, Balanced and Protected Capital, in order to adapt in a better way the different strategies and risk profile of each hedge fund the profiles of investors. It was considered in the study only non exclusive hedge funds that had quotas from May 2009 to December 2013. The funds performance was analyzed using indicators such as the average return, volatility, Sharpe ratio and Jensen???s Alpha, in order to assess whether hedge funds are able to get a significant risk adjusted return compared to the CDI rate. Moreover, hypothesis tests were applied to verify if the average return of hedge funds is equivalent to CDI. Data analysis found evidence that only certain categories of hedge funds outperformed the benchmark during the period analyzed, such as Long & Short Directional Long & Short Neutral, Multigestor, macro, multi-strategy and Interest and Currency categories. The return was higher than CDI with acceptable volatility, presenting Sharpe Ratios and Jensen's Alpha positive, further were efficient in overcoming the CDI in relation to the risk assumed in each of their respective management strategies. Concerning to hypothesis testing, it was not rejected the hypothesis that the average returns of hedge funds are statistically equal to the CDI. Only Capital Protected category got a statistically different mean return of CDI in the analyzed period. This study is usefull as a tool for market analysis and reflection on the management strategies of hedge funds and as an investment guide for the general public, helping to identify the best strategies for active management, as well as hedge funds with better performance. / Este estudo analisa o desempenho dos fundos de investimento multimercados brasileiros ap??s a crise do mercado imobili??rio americano, conhecida como a Crise do Subprime. Avaliase as diferentes estrat??gias de gest??ode fundos multimercado conseguem superar o benchmark, considerando a nova classifica????o institu??da pela ANBIMA em Maio de 2009. As dez categorias foram classificadas como Long & Short Direcional, Long & Short Neutro, Multigestor, Macro, Multiestrategia, Juros e Moedas, Trading, Estrat??gia Especifica, Balanceados e Capital Protegido, visando adequar de uma melhor forma as diferentes estrat??gias e o perfil de risco de cada fundo multimercado aos perfis dos investidores. Considerou-se na amostra do estudo apenas os fundos multimercados n??o exclusivos que apresentaram cotas de Maio de 2009 a Dezembro de 2013. O desempenho dos fundos foi analisado utilizando indicadores, como o retorno m??dio, a volatilidade, o ??ndice de Sharpe e o Alfa de Jensen, deforma a avaliar se os fundos mulimercados conseguem obter um retorno ajustado ao risco significante, em compara????o com a taxa do CDI. Al??m disso, foram aplicados testes de hip??tese, para verificar em que medida a m??dia de retorno dos fundos multimercados se equivale ao CDI.A an??lise de dados encontrou evid??ncias de que apenas algumas categorias de fundos multimercados superaram o benchmark no per??odo analisado, tais como as categorias Long & Short Direcional, Long & Short Neutro, Multigestor, Macro, Multiestrategia e Juros e Moedas. Obtiveram um retorno acima do CDI com volatilidade aceit??vel, apresentando ??ndices de Sharpe e Alfa de Jensen positivos, ou seja, foram eficientes na supera????o do CDI em rela????o ao risco assumido em cada uma das suas respectivas estrat??gias de gest??o. Em rela????o aos testes de hip??tese, n??o foi poss??vel rejeitar a hip??tese de que a m??dia dos retornos dos fundos multimercados s??o estatisticamente iguais ao CDI. Apenas a categoria Capital Protegido apresentou m??dia de retorno estatisticamente diferente do CDI no per??odo analisado. Este trabalho serve ao mercado como uma ferramenta de an??lise e reflex??o sobre as estrat??gias de gest??o de fundos multimercados e como um guia de investimentos para o p??blico em geral, contribuindo para identificaras melhores estrat??gias de gest??o ativa, bem como os fundos multimercados com melhor desempenho.

Cette thèse porte sur la relation entre les marchés monétaire et financier en France sur la période 1880-1914. On y étudie notamment le marché des prêts à court terme. La thèse étudie en détail deux segmentes de ce marché : les avances sur titres (prêts à court terme garantis), et le marché des reports (« sale and repurchase agreements) . Les intermédiaires clé sont la Banque de France, quatre grandes banques de dépôt, les banques régionales, et les deux acteurs du marché boursier : la Compagnie des agents de change et la Coulisse. La thèse est structurée en trois chapitres. Le premier porte sur l’introduction d’une chambre de compensation dans le marché des reports en France, et étudie les conséquences de cette introduction sur le risque de contrepartie. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur la politique monétaire de la Banque de France entre 1890 et 1913 et le rôle du secteur bancaire sur la transmission de la politique monétaire même. Le troisième et dernier chapitre porte sur la crise financière de 1914 en France / This thesis deals with the relationship between the money market and the financial market from 1880 to 1914. It focuses in particular on the market for short-term loans. This dissertation studies in detail two segments of this market: the advances on securities (collateralized short-term loans), and the repo market (repurchase agreements). The key financial intermediaries are the Banque de France, four main commercial banks, regional banks, the « coulisse » operating over-the-counter and the « Compagnie des agents de changes ». The dissertation is structured in three chapters. The first deals with the introduction of a clearing house in the French historical repo market, and studies its consequences on counterparty risk. The second chapter deals with Bank of France monetary policy between 1890 and 1913 and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of policy shocks. The third chapter deals with the Great Financial Crisis of 1914.

This study explores the inter relationships between the nominal interest rates of Australia and its principal trading partners. The analysis focus on the short end of the yield curve --specifically, rates of up to one year to maturity. In essence, the study comprises a suite of essays, which together provide an overall understanding of the relevant relationship that is, in both depth and scope, greater than the sum of the individual essays. The inquiry begins with an investigation of the impact of the overnight information content of international interest rates upon the Australian domestic money market. The results indicate that the strongest information impact on Australian interest rates is from the overnight interest and exchange rates of the United States. This is followed, in the second essay, by an investigation of the relationship between domestically and internationally traded Australian dollar denominated, financial assets. The results indicate that a Euro-Australian dollar inter-bank deposit and Australian bank accepted bills are effectively the same assets. Based on this result the third essay investigates the extent to which the short-term nominal interest rates of Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan are consistent with the expectations theory of the interest rate term structure. The results indicate that nominal inter-bank deposit rates in all four currencies are broadly consistent with the expectations theory. In addition, two common stochastic trends are identified, which can be associated with the markets of the United States and Japan. The forth essay focuses on the bilateral relationships between the nominal interest rates of Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, and aims at establishing the extent to which the observed data is consistent with interest rate parity conditions. It was found that, in the long run, and with some exceptions, there is strong support for all three of the usual parity conditions. These relationships are interpreted as a measure of the efficiency with which the interest rates are simultaneously determined across the four markets. The final essay brings together insights gained in the preceeding essays to help analysis the interactions between each of the four markets at each of the four maturities selected within the consistent framework of a single model. The results indicate that the system can be usefully conceptualised as interactions between two sub-systems. The first sub-system models the nexus between Australia and the United States, and the second sub-system, that between the United Kingdom and Japan. The interactions within and between these two sub-systems are found to change as the maturity increases. At the shortest maturity, Australian interest rates are directly affected by both sub-systems. In contrast, at the longest maturity, Australian interest rates anticipate those of the United States and are not directly affected by the second sub-system.

The first essay examines cross-sectional differences between money market mutual funds (MMMFs), in the context of the sponsoring fund family. While extant studies have shown that fund family characteristics impact the management of open-end equity mutual funds, results of this study’s analysis find that fund family characteristics also affect the management of MMMF assets, contributing to differences in the maturity of the fund’s holdings, expenses, and realized returns. I find that an MMMF is not simply a transitional account with a short-term low-risk investment objective, but rather, a critical role player within the fund family. Differences in maturity, yield, and expenses in MMMFs can be explained by family-specific characteristics, including diversification and cash management strategies at the family level. The second essay examines implications of substitutability of two similar financial assets: conventional index mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs). I seek to explain the coexistence of these fund types, since both offer a claim on the same underlying index return process, but have different organizational structures. This study compares conventional open-end index funds with matched ETFs on various underlying indexes. Aggregate flows are used to detect substitution and clientele effects. I show that conventional funds and ETFs are substitutes, while ETFs have smaller tracking errors and lower fund expenses. However, I find that these fund types are not perfect substitutes, and their coexistence can be explained by a clientele effect that segregates them into different market niches.

This study is concerned with investigating the impact of the monetary policy on the capital markets during the period (1989-2004). Specifically, there are three major objectives of this study: (1) To examine the impact of the money supply on the government bonds and treasury bills (supplies and rates) in Jordan and compare it with Bahrain, (2) To examine the relationship between the treasury bills and the government bonds in Jordan, and (3) To examine the effect of the money supply on the stocks price index in Jordan and compare this impact with the one in Bahrain. To accomplish the objectives of this study, a quantitative approach is employed. The quantitative approach is represented here by the econometric analysis (Time Series Analysis) of documentary secondary data. The research hypotheses were set up to examine the relationship between the money supply and a number of explanatory variables (treasury bills rates and issues, government bonds rates and issues, and stock price index). These hypotheses were tested using time series analysis (VAR method). The analysis was conducted for two countries: Jordan and Bahrain. The data covered the period (1989-2004) monthly data in Jordan, and 2000:9-2004:12) in Bahrain. The tests that have been used in this research in VAR model will include: selection of the lag length, unit root test, granger causality test, variance decomposition, and impulse response function. These tests will be examined by using Eviews (release 5.0) package and RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series (release 6.0) software. The findings in Jordan revealed that there isn't any relationship between the money supply and the treasury bills rates and government bonds rates. However, there is a positive relationship between the money supply and issuance of the treasury bills and the government bonds. These findings lead to the quantity adjustment in the absence of the price adjustment. Moreover, the results indicate that there is a significant negative relationship between the treasury bills issuance and the government bonds issuance. And the last result in Jordan concluded that there is a positive relationship between the money supply and the stock price index. The finding in Bahrain were different from the findings in Jordan because of the difference in the financial system in the two countries, as Bahrain follows an Islamic financial system whereas Jordan's finanacial system is not an Islamic one. The prohibition of the interst rate in some cases in Bahrain and that Bahrain's economy is more open economy would lead to the conclusion that there isn't any relationship between the money supply and the stock market index and the money market instruments (treasury bills) and that it follows international capital flow adjustment. Also, it is important to mention that Bahrain Monetary Agency has issued Islamic instruments (long and short-term sukuk) beside the conventional instruments.