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在全球化和改革開放的進程中，中國在各方面巳經取得了長足的進步，另一方面，外來衝擊也更容易侵入。在本文中我們主要關注世界上最大的兩個經濟體，中國和美國，通過貨幣政策所產生的聯繫。我們建立了若干個VAR 模型來分析美國貨幣政策的改變對於中國的影響以及意義。 / 我們發現，匯率波動是最主要的傳導渠道。基於這一點，文中的分析被劃分為兩個子時間段，以2005 年7 月的匯率改革為分隔點。在兩個時間段中，擴張性的美國貨幣政策衝擊都會引起流入中國的國際資本顯著增加，並以非FDI 的“熱錢"流入為主。在匯率改革之前，這一資本流入主要引起不可貿易品的需求增加，從而其相對價格提高，引起實際匯率升值，而對於經常賬戶和貿易收支的影響較小。相比之下，在匯率改革之後，這一資本流入引起的實際匯率升值主要通過名義匯率的調整來實現。雖然國內通貨膨脹壓力降低， 實際匯率波幅也沒有顯著上升，但是由於名義匯率變化對於出口的傳遞程度較高，貿易收支在短期內會明顯惡化。 / 為了增強分析的有效性和魯棒性，我們修改了VAR 的結構來觀察這一傳導機制隨著時間的演進。結果證明了最主要的轉折點出現在匯改附近，同時變量之間逐年的動態闕係也證明了以上的結論。 / 這些結果表明，在名義匯率和經常賬戶的穩定性，以及國內通貨膨脹的穩定性之間，存在著一個權衡關係。雖然對於浮動匯率制是否會帶來更高的實際匯率波動性本文並未發現很強的證據，但是我們觀察到它導致了經常賬戶更加劇烈的波動。在某些情況下，名義匯率升值甚至可以引起短暫的通貨緊縮現象，這在固定匯率制下是不會出現的。因此，邁向浮動匯率制的副作用不可被完全忽略，其中隱含的風險也在一定程度上說明了“浮動恐懼"這一普遍現象的合理性。 / On the transition path to a more globalized and open economy, China has witnessed a great progress in many aspects; meanwhile, external shocks are more likely to invade. In this work we focus on the connection between two largest economies, China and the US, through the channel of monetary policy innovations. Several structural VAR models are developed to analyze what a change in monetary policy stance of US implies for the Chinese economy and why this is important. / The principal transmission channel is through adjustment in exchange rates. We divide our analysis into two sub-periods based on the exchange rate reform in July 2005. Across both periods following an expansionary US monetary policy shock there is a burst of capital inflows concentrated within the first year that are dominated by non-FDI inflows, i.e., “hot money“. Before the exchange rate reform, these capital inflows lead to a rise in the demand for non-tradable goods, driving up their relative price, thereby achieving a real exchange rate appreciation. The effect on trade balance is relatively small. / Comparatively, after the exchange rate reform, real exchange rate appreciates due to the surge of capital inflows more through changes in nominal exchange rate. The inflationary pressure is alleviated significantly, and the short-run volatility of real exchange rate slightly increases. However, the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes into exports is much higher, resulting in a short-run deterioration in trade balance severely. / To verify the validity and enhance the robustness of our analysis, we revise the identifying VARs to investigate the evolution of transmission over time. We show that the most significant turning point of the transmission channel coincides with the exchange rate reform, and comparison among dynamics of variables on a year-by-year basis confirms the previous conclusions. / It seems that there is a trade-off between the stability of nominal exchange rate and the current account, on the one hand, and the stabilization of inflation, on the other hand. Although we find only weak evidence that a more free-floating nominal exchange rate will lead to higher volatility in the real exchange rate, it may introduce higher short-run volatility in the current account. In some cases the appreciation in nominal exchange rate even generates a transitory deflationary effect that is absent under the pegged system. Therefore, the side effects of stepping toward a flexible exchange rate regime must be considered; the potential risk it involves justifies the “fear of floating“ to some extent. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Yang, Minmin. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-110). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.v / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions and Major Findings --- p.5 / Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- Open Economy Theories --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Research on International Transmission --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3 --- China as an Open Economy --- p.15 / Chapter 3 --- Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1 --- Traditional Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Transmission under Fixed Exchange Rate Regime --- p.19 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Transmission under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime --- p.25 / Chapter 3.2 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Capital Control --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Sterilization --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.30 / Chapter 3.3 --- Summary --- p.36 / Chapter 4 --- Data and Methodology --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- Vector Autoregression --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARs models for the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Benchmark VAR to IdentifyMonetary Policy Shocks in the US --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Extend the Benchmark VAR to Include Chinese Variables --- p.45 / Chapter 4.3 --- Data --- p.50 / Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results --- p.57 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.57 / Chapter 5.2 --- Transmission before the Exchange Rate reform --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.62 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.64 / Chapter 5.3 --- Transmission after the Exchange Rate Reform --- p.66 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.69 / Chapter 5.4 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.70 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Capital Control --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- Sterilization --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.72 / Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.77 / Chapter 6 --- Robustness: Structural Break in the Transmission --- p.79 / Chapter 6.1 --- Methodology --- p.80 / Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.87 / Chapter 6.3 --- Summary --- p.91 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion and Future Work --- p.92 / Bibliography --- p.101