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Nearly unpredictable turbulence on an overall economic level, radical changes in the legal framework and a shift in the moral concepts prevailing in the general public emphasize the importance of increased corporate flexibility. Usually, most flexibility measurements suffer from the defect that they are not pecuniary, that interactions between different flexibility dimensions are not considered and that they lack the required relatedness to the respective context. These problems contribute to a large extent to the fact that, when making investment decisions, the value of flexibility is considered but intuitively or insufficiently. Frequently, the results are irrational myopic pseudo decisions. The present work can be regarded as an attempt to design a pecuniary and context-related flexibility measure of three single flexibility dimensions in an extremely simplified framework and under restrictive assumptions. The primary method used is Monte Carlo Simulation. The present study shows that the value of flexibility can be substantive and that taking into account the interactions of various single flexibilities when strategic investments are made can be of great importance. In this paper, we work out the connection between "environmental volatility" and the "value of flexibility". Our work shows a numerically strong positive relation between these two properties. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Simulation technique has been used for a feasibility study of a deep exploration project for massive sulphides in an old mining district, the Skellefte field. The outcome under very different conditions has been studied. Under the specific conditions of the well known Skellefte field it is found to be possible to even calibrate the mathematical model.It is found that when the geology is not known in detail, an outcome of the order of 50 tons per meter drillhole is to be expected under a simple drilling strategy.When a certain knowledge about the general structures down to around 1 000 m is established, it is possible to improve the outcome by a factor of 2 through an optimization of the depth of investigation. The optimal depth of investigation is in the order of 500 m.On the other hand, when a minimum ore value is introduced as a function of depth, the expected outcome will again decrease with a factor of about 3.It must be underlined, that these results are average values in a mathematical model and do not say anything about the outcome in the single exploration case. However, in exploration campaigns of the order of 40 drillholes to a depth of 1000 m an analysis shows that at least one deep seated large body was found in 25% ot the exploration campaigns.Faced with the problem whether to go or not to go into a deep exploration phase, this technique can headlight the problem and it can give an estimate about the order of costs and benefits. / digitalisering@umu

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