Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis presents a statistical analysis of the monthly rainfall for the Monterey Peninsula and the Carmel Valley in Central California. The analysis begins with the simple first-order autoregressive Markov model, which is found to be weak. Next, 2X2 contingency tables are used to identify predictors, one of which is found to be January rainfall. Finally, logistic analysis is used to quantify the predictive ability of January. This paper attempts to analyze rainfall time series in the statistical sense. No attempt is made to provide a physical explanation of the findings from the point of view of a meteorologist. / http://archive.org/details/statisticalanaly00davi / Captain, United States Army

Diarrheal disease has long been known to be a burden to children worldwide. Although child mortality rates as a result of diarrhea have decreased over the past two decades, overall diarrhea incidence has remained relatively stable. In Cambodia, diarrhea was the third most prevalent outpatient diagnosis for children under five in 2012, with a reported incidence rate of 12 per 100 children, up from 7 per 100 children in 2008 (Ministry of Planning Cambodia, 2012). Cambodia is an agricultural country with 80% of the population living in rural areas (National Institute of Statistics Ministry of Planning, 2013). Many are also poor, with 20.5% of the population living at or below the poverty line (Sobrado et al., 2014). As a result, a large portion of the population is vulnerable to changing climate patterns and seasonal rainfalls. These patterns have been shown to have an effect on the incidence of diarrhea in regions throughout the world. This research evaluated the relationship between seasonality and the incidence of diarrheal disease in children under five years old in the Rumduol district, Svay Rieng province of Cambodia. Using monthly under-five diarrhea data from a local health center and meteorological data from the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (MoWRAM), Spearman’s Correlation was used to find associations between monthly rainfall, heavy rainfall (defined by the 90th percentile), maximum average monthly temperature, and minimum average monthly temperature. Additionally, household surveys, interviews, and observations were used to understand how seasonal behavior, age/gender, household practices, and caregiver perception of the disease affect decisions surrounding diagnosis and treatment of childhood diarrhea throughout the year. Based on the results of the analysis, the number of heavy rainfall days had a weak negative association with monthly under-five diarrhea incidence in the initial month and following month, referred to as lag 0 and lag 1 (rs(96) = -.216, p = .035 and rs(95) = -.219, p = .033). Minimum average monthly temperature was also shown to have weak negative association with monthly under-five diarrhea incidence at lag 0 and lag 1 (rs(96) = -.208, p = .042 and rs(95) = -.212, p = .039). The negative correlation between heavy rainfall and under-five diarrhea indicates that heavy rain can have a washing effect on the environment at lag 0 and lag 1 months. Higher diarrhea incidence in the cooler months suggest a possible link to rotavirus, however more research must be done to make confirm this. Monthly rainfall was seen to have a positive association with diarrhea within the lag 3 and lag 4 months (rs(93) = .250, p = .015; rs(92) = .222, p = .034). This indicates that increased rainfall could have a delayed effect on diarrhea by three or four months. Maximum temperature did not have statistically significant results. These results show that heavy rainfall and minimum temperature likely play role in under-five child diarrhea in the study area at shorter lags times, while monthly rainfall has a greater effect at longer lag times. Results of survey and interview data showed participants had sufficient knowledge on personal and food hygiene practices but often practiced improper environmental hygiene behavior, especially as it related to the handling of child and animal feces. Additionally, there were statistically significant results when looking at the relationship between environmental hygiene knowledge and practice and households where mothers migrate for work. Households with migrant mothers was common within the study area, with 51.9% of households having a mother who was currently working away from home or had plans to return to work soon. More data is needed to further investigate this relationship; however, this result suggests that hygiene knowledge and practice could suffer in households where the mother is absent, as added burden is placed on grandmothers to do domestic and childcare work.

Submitted by Cássia Santos (cassia.bcufg@gmail.com) on 2017-03-08T13:39:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Fernanda Yoshida - 2014.pdf: 1288702 bytes, checksum: dd0e8e177b650008eb0f97adf3f3090b (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-03-09T11:11:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Fernanda Yoshida - 2014.pdf: 1288702 bytes, checksum: dd0e8e177b650008eb0f97adf3f3090b (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-09T11:11:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Fernanda Yoshida - 2014.pdf: 1288702 bytes, checksum: dd0e8e177b650008eb0f97adf3f3090b (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The influence of climatic variables on angular leaf spot of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and the reaction of the causal agent Pseudocercospora griseola (Sacc.) Crous & Braun to the carbendazim fungicide were assessed in this study. A methodology for assessing the pathogen resistance to the carbendazim fungicide, of wide use in Brazilian agriculture, was developed at Embrapa Rice and Beans, in Santo Antônio de Goiás. The test was based on P. griseola conidia suspensions at concentrations of 103, 104 and 105 spores mL-1, fungicide concentrations of the at 1 ppm, 10 ppm and 100 ppm per mL-1at the presence of Alamar Blue dye. Alamar Blue is an indicator of cell activity, where the metabolism of viable cells corresponds to a higher dye reduction and a colorimetric reaction. The experimental results were assessed with the support a spectrophotometer to quantify the amount of reduced dye, and thus, to verify the pathogen’s resistance to the fungicide. The results demonstrated the feasibility of the method and greater resistance of the isolate Pg 669 to carbendazim in comparison to isolates Pg 410 and Pg 786. Furthermore, the recommended methodology consisted on fungicide at 100 ppm, 1 × 104 conidia mL-1and 40 hours of incubation at 25ºC. Another study considered the relationships between angular leaf spot severity, crop yield and climate variables to estimate the impacts of monthly rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the disease and yield losses in crops established in the spring/summer (November-February) or fall (February-May) season, in crops established in the spring/summer (November-February) or fall (February-May) season, in different Brazilian municipalities, between 2001 and 2010. The disease data was retrieved from experiments of value, cultivation and use (VCU), conducted by Embrapa and its partners, with the cultivars Pérola, BRS Grafite e BRS Requinte. These tests were carried out in a randomized block design with three replications. The results showed differences (p<0.05) between cultivars and between planting seasons. By means of regression analysis, an inversely proportional relationship between yield and disease severity was found. The principal components analysis, in turn, revealed that ENSO influences differently disease severity and crop yield according to the location of the experiments in the Brazilian states of Goiás, Paraná and Pernambuco. These results provide new evidences about the efficiency of commercially used fungicides for angular leaf spot management, demonstrate the impacts of the disease on a regional scale, and support predictive models of disease and risk assessments of climate change on the development of crops. / Este trabalho avaliou a influência de variáveis climáticas sobre a mancha angular do feijoeiro comum (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), e a reação de seu agente causal Pseudocercospora griseola (Sacc.) Crous & Braun ao fungicida carbendazim. Na Embrapa Arroz e Feijão (Santo Antônio de Goiás, GO) foi desenvolvida uma metodologia para avaliação da resistência do patógeno ao fungicida carbendazim, de amplo uso na agricultura brasileira. Foram avaliadas suspensões de conídios de P. griseola em concentrações de 103, 104 e 105 esporos mL-1 com concentrações do fungicida a 1 ppm, 10 ppm e 100 ppm mL-1, junto ao corante Alamar Blue. Este corante função é um indicador da atividade celular presente, onde maior a atividade celular corresponde a uma maior redução do corante, o que resulta em uma reação colorimétrica. A análise do experimento foi feita com o auxílio de um espectrofotômetro, para quantificar a quantidade de corante reduzida e assim verificar a resistência do patógeno ao fungicida testado. Os resultados demonstraram a viabilidade do método e a maior resistência do isolado Pg 669 ao carbendazim, em relação aos Pg 410 e Pg 786, e recomendação para estes ensaios com o fungicida a 100 ppm, 1 × 104 esporos mL- 1, 10 l de Alamar Blue em um intervalo de incubação ótimo de 40 horas a 25ºC. Em outro estudo, foi realizado um levantamento da severidade da mancha angular, da produtividade da cultura e de variáveis climáticas para se estimar os impactos da precipitação mensal e do fenômeno El-Niño Oscilação Sul (ENSO) sobre a doença e as perdas de rendimento nas safras das águas e da seca, em diferentes municípios brasileiros, entre 2001 e 2010. Os dados foram provenientes de ensaios de valoração, cultivo e uso (VCU), conduzidos pela Embrapa e seus parceiros, com as cultivares Pérola, BRS Grafite e BRS Requinte, na safra das águas (novembro-fevereiro) e, eventualmente, da seca (fevereiro-maio). A partir das análises realizadas foram observadas diferenças (p<0,05) entre as cultivares e entre as épocas de plantio. Por meio da análise de regressão, foi observada uma relação inversamente proporcional entre produtividade e severidade da doença. A análise de componentes principais, por sua vez, revelou que o fenômeno ENSO influencia diferentemente a severidade da doença e produtividade da cultura conforme a localização dos plantios nos estados de Goiás, Paraná e Pernambuco. Estes resultados fornecem novos subsídios sobre avaliar a eficiência dos fungicidas utilizados comercialmente para o manejo da mancha angular, demonstram dos impactos da doença em escala regional e subsidiam o desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de doenças e avaliações de risco de mudanças climáticas sobre o desenvolvimento de cultivos do feijão comum