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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Evaluating the Predictive Power and suitability of Mortality Rate Models : A Comparison of Makeham and Lee-Carter for Life Insurance Applications

Ljunggren, Carl January 2024 (has links)
Life insurance companies rely on mortality rate models to set appropriate premiums for their services. Over the past century, average life expectancy has increased and continues to do so, necessitating more accurate models. Two commonly used models are the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality and the Lee-Carter model. The Gompertz-Makeham model depends solely on an age variable, while the Lee-Carter model incorporates a time-varying aspect which accounts for the increase in life expectancy over time. This paper constructs both models using training data acquired from Skandia Mutual Life Insurance Company and compares them to validation data from the same set. The study suggests that the Lee-Carter model may be able to offer some improvements compared to the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality in terms of predicting future mortality rates. However, due to a lack of qualitative data, creating a competitive Lee-Carter model through Singular Value Decomposition, SVD, proved to be problematic. Switching from the current Gompertz-Makeham model to the Lee-Carter model should, therefore, be explored further when more high quality data becomes available.

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