submitted to the Air Force Office of Scientific Research. / "October, 1988." Investigators: Alan S. Willsky, George Verghese. / Includes bibliographical references. / Annual report. / Sponsored by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research grant AFOSR-88-0032

by Francois Rene Henri Valraud. / Based on the revised and edited thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 1989. / Includes bibliographical references. / Support provided by the Basic Research Group of the Joint Directors of Laboratories through the Office of Naval Research. N00014-85-K-0782

Investigators: Alan S. Willsky, George Verghese. / Annual technical report for Grant AFOSR-88-0032. / Sponsored by the AFOSR. AFOSR-88-0032

"The principle investigator for this effort is Professor Alan S. Willsky, and Professor George C. Verghese is co-principal investigator."--P. [3]. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [20]-[25]). / Final technical report for grant AFOSR-88-0032. / Supported by the AFOSR. AFOSR-88-0032

prepared by Michael Athans, Gunter Stein, Lena Valavani ; submitted to NASA, Langley Research Center, Ames Research Center. / Includes bibliographical references. / Supported by NASA. NAG 2-297 MIT OSP no.95178

prepared by Michael Athans, Gunter Stein, Lena Valavani ; submitted to NASA, Langley Research Center, Ames Research Center. / Includes bibliographical references. / Supported by a grant from NASA. NAG 2-297 MIT OSP no.95178

prepared by Michael Athans, Gunter Stein, Lena Valavani. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 13-16). / Status report; January 31, 1988 / Supported by NASA. NAG 2-297 MIT OSP. 95178

prepared by Alan S. Willsky, Bernard C. Levy, George C. Verghese. / Cover title. / Includes bibliographical references. / Status report. / NSF. ECS-9800903

To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one climate assessment modeling framework, propagating uncertainties in both economic and climate components, and constraining climate parameter uncertainties based on observation. We find that in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions restrictions, there is a one in forty chance that global mean surface temperature change will exceed 4.9 degrees C by the year 2100. A policy case with aggressive emissions reductions over time lowers the temperature change to a one in forty chance of exceeding 3.2 degrees C, thus reducing but not eliminating the chance of substantial warming. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Website. (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/) / Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-21).

The experiment reported here tests the case of so-called exclusionary manipulation of emission permit markets, i.e., when a dominant firm -- here a monopolist -- increases its holding of permits in order to raise its rivals' costs and thereby gain more on a product market. Earlier studies have claimed that this type of market manipulation is likely to substantially reduce the social gains of permit trading and even result in negative gains. The experiment designed here parallels institutional and informat ional conditions likely to hold in real trade with carbon permits among electricity producers. Although the dominant firm withheld supply from the electricity market, the outcome seems to reject the theory of exclusionary manipulation. In later trading p eriods, closing prices on both markets, permit holdings and total electricity production are near competitive levels. Social gains of emissions trading are higher than in earlier studies. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Website. (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/) / Includes bibliographical references (p. 18-19).