The research undertaken in this study is designed to examine the reliability of management estimates of expected future net revenues from the production of proved oil and gas reserves determined in accordance with the requirements of the prediction model specified in ASR No. 253. The issue of the required disclosure of earnings forecasts has been a topic of considerable controversy for many years. Within that controversy, the most frequently encountered opposition questions the reliability and ultimate utility of earnings forecasts. Similar opposition to both past and present forecast disclosure requirements exists in the oil and gas industry. In order to examine the reliability of management estimates of expected future net revenues, a two-part analysis was conducted. In the first part of the analysis, error metrics comparing management forecasts to actual results were computed and examined. Included in the examination were various relationships among and within the computed metrics. In the second part of the analysis an attempt was made to establish the association between the error metrics and specific related variables. It was anticipated that the degree of association determined would provide evidence of the relative accuracy of management in predicting the timing and volume of future production within the framework of the prediction model.

O trabalho tem por objetivo principal mensurar o risco financeiro da produção de tomate de mesa em duas importantes regiões produtoras do Brasil - Caçador (SC) e Mogi Guaçu (SP), representando a safra de verão e inverno respectivamente. Como objetivos específicos têm-se: descrever as propriedades tomaticultoras \"típicas\" de cada região e mensurar seu custo de implantação; compor o fluxo de caixa da produção para analisar a viabilidade econômica de cada propriedade \"típica\" e mensurar o risco econômico do negócio. Assim, fez-se uma análise determinista das variáveis que compõem o fluxo de caixa de cada região, entre 2006 e 2012, e dos indicadores de viabilidade econômica - Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). A descrição das propriedades \"típicas\" e o levantado do investimento inicial para a produção foi realizado por meio da metodologia do Painel. Para mensuração do risco financeiro realizou-se uma análise probabilística, com o cálculo do quantil negativo da distribuição de probabilidade das receitas líquidas operacionais (RLO) simuladas por Monte Carlo. O risco econômico do negócio em cada uma das propriedades típicas foi calculado pela probabilidade do VPL ser negativo. Por meio do Painel, constataram-se três modelos distintos de produção de tomate de mesa nas regiões pesquisadas. Em Caçador foi diagnosticado propriedades de pequena escala de produção (1,25 ha), cujo investimento foi de R$ 91.700,3 ha-1, e de grande escala (27,27ha), com investimento de R$ 52.354,5 ha-1. Em Mogi Guaçu a propriedade \"típica\" foi de média escala (15 ha) e o investimento totalizou R$ 42.789,2 ha-1. Comparando o fluxo de caixa das duas regiões entre 2006 e 2012, a soma das RLO\'s foi positiva, mas houve meses consecutivos de receita negativa. Este cenário pode levar o produtor ao endividamento e inviabilizar seu negócio no longo prazo. Quanto aos indicadores de viabilidade econômica (VPL e TIR), todas as propriedades típicas se mostraram viáveis entre 2006 e 2012. Porém, o risco financeiro de ambas as regiões foi elevado, 37,23% para Caçador e 32% para Mogi Guaçu. Já o risco econômico do negócio foi menor, 16,8% e 10,3% para pequena e grande escala de Caçador, respectivamente, e praticamente nulo para a média escala de Mogi Guaçu. Apesar de parecer vantajoso do ponto de vista econômico, o elevado risco financeiro mostra a importância de o tomaticultor fazer uma reserva financeira em meses de bons preços para cobrir os fluxos de caixa negativo e, assim, conseguir se manter na atividade no longo prazo. / The main objective of this study is to calculate the financial risk of fresh market tomato production in two important brazilian production regions - Caçador (SC) and Mogi Guaçu (SP), which represents the summer and winter harvest, respectively. The especific goals are: to characterize the \"tipical\" tomato farms in each region and to obtain their implantation cost; to compose the cash flow to analyze the economic viability of each \"tipical\" farm and to calculate the economical risk of the business. Therefore, it was carried a deterministic analysis of the cash flow variables and the economic viabiliy indicators - Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - in each region between 2006 until 2012. The \"tipical\" farm characterization and the measurement of the implantation cost was carried using the Painel methodology. The financial risk was calculated using a probabilistic analyzis, through the negative quantile of net revenues probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation. The economic risk of business in each \"tipical\" farm was calculated using the probability of negative NPV. Through the Painel methodology it was distingueshed three tipical farms at the evaluated regions. At Caçador it was found small scale properties (1,25 ha), which the investment was R$ 91.700,3 ha-1, and large scale (27,27ha), with investment of R$ 52.354,5 ha-1. At Mogi Guaçu the tipical farm is a median scale property (15 ha) with an investment of R$ 42.789,2 ha-1. Regarding the cash flow analyses, the average of net revenues is positive, but there was consecutive negative net revenues for month. This cenarium can lead the producer to debt which might threaten the busines at long term. Regarding economic viability indicators, all tipical farms were viable during 2006 until 2012. But the financial risk was high in both regions, 37,23% at Caçador and 32% at Mogi Guaçu. The economic risk of busines was lower, 16,8% and 10,3% for the Caçador small and large scale property, respectively, and close to zero at the Mogi Guaçu median scale property. Despite the good economical results, the high financial risk reveles the importance of saving revenue during good prices periods to cover negative cash flow months and so continue busines at long term.

O trabalho tem por objetivo principal mensurar o risco financeiro da produção de tomate de mesa em duas importantes regiões produtoras do Brasil - Caçador (SC) e Mogi Guaçu (SP), representando a safra de verão e inverno respectivamente. Como objetivos específicos têm-se: descrever as propriedades tomaticultoras \"típicas\" de cada região e mensurar seu custo de implantação; compor o fluxo de caixa da produção para analisar a viabilidade econômica de cada propriedade \"típica\" e mensurar o risco econômico do negócio. Assim, fez-se uma análise determinista das variáveis que compõem o fluxo de caixa de cada região, entre 2006 e 2012, e dos indicadores de viabilidade econômica - Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). A descrição das propriedades \"típicas\" e o levantado do investimento inicial para a produção foi realizado por meio da metodologia do Painel. Para mensuração do risco financeiro realizou-se uma análise probabilística, com o cálculo do quantil negativo da distribuição de probabilidade das receitas líquidas operacionais (RLO) simuladas por Monte Carlo. O risco econômico do negócio em cada uma das propriedades típicas foi calculado pela probabilidade do VPL ser negativo. Por meio do Painel, constataram-se três modelos distintos de produção de tomate de mesa nas regiões pesquisadas. Em Caçador foi diagnosticado propriedades de pequena escala de produção (1,25 ha), cujo investimento foi de R$ 91.700,3 ha-1, e de grande escala (27,27ha), com investimento de R$ 52.354,5 ha-1. Em Mogi Guaçu a propriedade \"típica\" foi de média escala (15 ha) e o investimento totalizou R$ 42.789,2 ha-1. Comparando o fluxo de caixa das duas regiões entre 2006 e 2012, a soma das RLO\'s foi positiva, mas houve meses consecutivos de receita negativa. Este cenário pode levar o produtor ao endividamento e inviabilizar seu negócio no longo prazo. Quanto aos indicadores de viabilidade econômica (VPL e TIR), todas as propriedades típicas se mostraram viáveis entre 2006 e 2012. Porém, o risco financeiro de ambas as regiões foi elevado, 37,23% para Caçador e 32% para Mogi Guaçu. Já o risco econômico do negócio foi menor, 16,8% e 10,3% para pequena e grande escala de Caçador, respectivamente, e praticamente nulo para a média escala de Mogi Guaçu. Apesar de parecer vantajoso do ponto de vista econômico, o elevado risco financeiro mostra a importância de o tomaticultor fazer uma reserva financeira em meses de bons preços para cobrir os fluxos de caixa negativo e, assim, conseguir se manter na atividade no longo prazo. / The main objective of this study is to calculate the financial risk of fresh market tomato production in two important brazilian production regions - Caçador (SC) and Mogi Guaçu (SP), which represents the summer and winter harvest, respectively. The especific goals are: to characterize the \"tipical\" tomato farms in each region and to obtain their implantation cost; to compose the cash flow to analyze the economic viability of each \"tipical\" farm and to calculate the economical risk of the business. Therefore, it was carried a deterministic analysis of the cash flow variables and the economic viabiliy indicators - Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - in each region between 2006 until 2012. The \"tipical\" farm characterization and the measurement of the implantation cost was carried using the Painel methodology. The financial risk was calculated using a probabilistic analyzis, through the negative quantile of net revenues probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation. The economic risk of business in each \"tipical\" farm was calculated using the probability of negative NPV. Through the Painel methodology it was distingueshed three tipical farms at the evaluated regions. At Caçador it was found small scale properties (1,25 ha), which the investment was R$ 91.700,3 ha-1, and large scale (27,27ha), with investment of R$ 52.354,5 ha-1. At Mogi Guaçu the tipical farm is a median scale property (15 ha) with an investment of R$ 42.789,2 ha-1. Regarding the cash flow analyses, the average of net revenues is positive, but there was consecutive negative net revenues for month. This cenarium can lead the producer to debt which might threaten the busines at long term. Regarding economic viability indicators, all tipical farms were viable during 2006 until 2012. But the financial risk was high in both regions, 37,23% at Caçador and 32% at Mogi Guaçu. The economic risk of busines was lower, 16,8% and 10,3% for the Caçador small and large scale property, respectively, and close to zero at the Mogi Guaçu median scale property. Despite the good economical results, the high financial risk reveles the importance of saving revenue during good prices periods to cover negative cash flow months and so continue busines at long term.

The financial crisis of 2007/8 has triggered a profound debate about public budget finance sustainability, ever-increasing government expenditures and the efficiency of fiscal policy measures. Given this context, the following dissertation provides four contributions that analyze the long-run growth of government spending throughout economic development, discuss potential effects of fiscal policy measures on output, and provide new insights into the assessment of debt sustainability for a variety of industrialized countries. Since the breakout of the European debt crisis in 2009/2010, there has been a revival of interest in the long-term growth of government expenditures. In this context, the relationship between the size of the public sector and economic growth - often referred to as Wagner's law - has been in the focus of numerous studies, especially with regard to public policy and fiscal sustainability. Using historical data from the mid-19th century, the first chapter analyzes the validity of Wagner's law for five industrialized European countries and links the discussion to different stages of economic development. In line with Wagner's hypothesis, our findings show that the relationship between public spending and economic growth has weakened at an advanced stage of development. Furthermore, all countries under review support the notion that Wagner's law may have lost its economic relevance in recent decades. As a consequence of the 2007/8 financial crisis, there has been an increasing theoretical and empirical debate about the impact of fiscal policy measures on output. Accordingly, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach to estimating the fiscal multipliers developed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) has been applied widely in the literature in recent years. In the second chapter, we point out that the fiscal multipliers derived from this approach include the predicted future path of the policy instruments as well as their dynamic interaction. We analyze a data set from the US and document that these interactions are economically and statistically significant. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses. Furthermore, we use our estimates to analyze the recent fiscal stimulus of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The third chapter contributes to the existing empirical literature on fiscal multipliers by applying a five-variable SVAR approach to a uniform data set for Belgium, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Besides studying the effects of expenditure and tax increases on output, we additionally analyze their dynamic effects on inflation and interest rates as well as the dynamic interaction of both policy instruments. By conducting counterfactual simulations, which abstract from the dynamic response of key macroeconomic variables to the initial fiscal shocks, we study the importance of these channels for the transmission of fiscal policy on output. Overall, the results demonstrate that the effects of fiscal shocks are limited and rather different across countries. Further, it is shown that the inflation and interest rate channel are insignificant for the transmission of fiscal policy. In the field of public finances, governmental budgetary policies are among the most controversial and disputed areas of political and scientific controversy. The sustainability of public debt is often analyzed by testing stationarity conditions of government's budget deficits. The fourth chapter shows that this test can be implemented more effectively by means of an asymmetric unit root test. We argue that this approach increases the power of the test and reduces the likelihood of drawing false inferences. We illustrate this in an application to 14 countries of the European Monetary Union as well as in a Monte Carlo simulation. Distinguishing between positive and negative changes in deficits, we find consistency with the intertemporal budget constraint for more countries, i.e. lower persistence of positive changes in some countries, compared to the earlier literature.