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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Variação no tempo da taxa neutra de juro real no Brasil

Augusto, Felipe Verceze 02 August 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Felipe Verceze Augusto (felipea60@gmail.com) on 2018-08-29T19:37:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação felipeaustoversaomkmv5.docx: 408849 bytes, checksum: 14de694c8b7e6dbd8c416aa45fdad1db (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-08-29T20:39:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação felipeaustoversaomkmv5.docx: 408849 bytes, checksum: 14de694c8b7e6dbd8c416aa45fdad1db (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-08-30T12:10:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação felipeaustoversaomkmv5.docx: 408849 bytes, checksum: 14de694c8b7e6dbd8c416aa45fdad1db (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-30T12:10:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação felipeaustoversaomkmv5.docx: 408849 bytes, checksum: 14de694c8b7e6dbd8c416aa45fdad1db (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-02 / Este trabalho propõe estimar a taxa de juro real neutra para o mercado brasileiro, utilizando uma metodologia abordada por autores como Perreli e Roache (2014) e Goldfajn e Bicalho (2011). Utilizando variáveis estruturais, baseado em fundamentos econômicos e conjunturais, os autores buscam estimar a taxa neutra de juro separando-a de acordo com o período, isto é, em taxa de juro de longo prazo e curto prazo. Após a análise destes estudos, foram estimados modelos a partir da mesma metodologia,isto é, buscando estimar a taxa neutra de juro entre longo e curto prazo, no período de 2003 à 2017. A partir desses estudos analisados foi possível verificar o impacto das variáveis de forma mais didática. Para os resultados de longo prazo, variáveis como crédito e surpresa inflacionária mostraram uma grande siginificância, já para a estimação de curto prazo, foram as variáveis de crédito direcionado e confiança do consumidor que tiveram grande significância, como também veremos nesse trabalho. Como será utilizado uma amostra de 15 anos, é possível fazer essa análise para diversos governos e diferentes gestões do Banco Central brasileiro. Com a estimação feita neste estudo também poderá ser viável acompanhar a condução de política monetária do Banco Central e sua assertividade. / This paper proposes to estimate the real neutral interest rate for the Brazilian market and uses a methodology addressed by authors such as Perreli and Roache (2014) and Goldfajn and Bicalho (2011). Using structural variables, based on economic and conjunctural fundamentals, the authors seek to estimate the neutral interest rate by separating it according to the period, that is, in long-term and short-term interest rates. After analyzing these studies, models were estimated using the same methodology in the period from 2003 to 2017. The studies allowed us to analyze the impact of the variables in a more didactic way. For the long-term results, variables such as credit and inflationary surprise showed a great significance, for the short-term estimation, were the directed credit and consumer confidence variables that had great significance, as we will see in this work. With the estimation made in this work it is also possible to follow the conduct of monetary policy of the Central Bank and its assertiveness. As the work covers a sample of 15 years, we can make this analysis for several governments and different managements of the Brazilian Central Bank.

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