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The Growth Potential of the 'Next-11': The Importance of Emerging Markets for Canadian Agrifood TradeCairns, Alexander Philip 16 September 2011 (has links)
The capacity of Canada’s export-oriented agrifood sectors to cope with contemporary challenges may hinge on their ability to identify new export markets. This thesis uses an import demand model, developed by Hallak (2006), to assess how per capita expenditure on Canadian agrifood exports is influenced by income growth and the presence of a preferential trade agreement for a group of emerging economies, known as ‘the Next-11.’
Results reveal that while as a group the Next-11 does not appear to be distinct from other income groups or the BRICs in terms of their expenditures on agrifood imports, Vietnam and South Korea demonstrate expenditure elasticities notably higher then other Next-11 and BRIC members. Finally, the findings cast doubt on the capacity of PTAs to enhance Canadian agrifood trade. However, this result may be indicative of Canada’s longstanding commitment to multilateral trade liberalization and the corresponding delay in the adoption of PTAs.
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Hitting a BRIC Wall : MIST countries becoming the new BRICs?Yilmaz, Emre, Husain, Shakir January 2012 (has links)
The purpose of this study is to examine a completely new phenomenon called the MIST, by two portfolios: the Goldman Sachs Next 11 equity fund, and the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund, in order to establish whether or not the MIST countries are a better investment decision in terms of risk, return and growth. Furthermore, the study examines in which form these emerging markets lies in terms of market efficiency, and if the random walk theory is present. The opportunities and challenges for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey are also brought upon to determine whether these countries have the potential to exhibit the same success as the BRIC countries did for a decade. Since the growth of the BRIC countries are slowing down, Jim O’Neill, the same founder of the term BRIC, coined the nations MIST. The BRIC countries are facing several difficulties and have led investors to draw out from these countries stocks. Investors that were pouring in money to the BRIC countries during the period 2001-2009, have from 2011, withdrawn 15 billion dollars from the BRIC stocks. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. Derived from the next eleven countries, these countries have a major effect on the global economy due to their economical and political circumstances. For many investors, the MIST countries that are growing faster than the BRIC are regarded to be the new biggest emerging markets. Investing in BRIC funds are stated to be a disaster today, while on the other hand, the MIST countries are growing and outpacing the BRIC fund. The methodology used was to compare two different portfolios, Goldman Sachs N-11 equity fund in the period 2011-2013 against the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund in two different periods, 2011-2013 and 2006-2008 with S&P 500 as the market index. In addition, a hypothesis test was carried out for this period to observe whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. The results of this study shows that the null hypothesis was rejected and that the N-11 equity fund is a better investment decision, in terms of risk, return and growth today. These emerging markets are under the weak form market efficiency and the random walk theory is present in the N-11 equity fund. This makes the authors’ results more of a speculation than a definite conclusion about the future, as one cannot "beat the market".
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