The paucity of data concerning the etiology and development of coronary heart disease (CHD) and its risk factors prompted this case-control study. The prevalence of CHD and its accompanying CHD-risk factors among black people from Africa during the twentieth century is covered in the literature review. Differences between developed and developings countries and the possible role of multivariate analyses for the recognition of CHD are addressed. The aims and objectives follow the discussion of the literature review. Between 1982 and 1986 we identified 89 black South African patients with CHD, according to > 2 criteria of the World Health Organization (WHO) for CHD. The diagnosis of underlying coronary artery disease (CAD) was confirmed using coronary angiography, and/or necropsy until 1994. Exercise-radionuclide imaging was also used to confirm manifestations of underlying CHD. A control group of 356 black people living in the same study area and with no evidence of underlying CHD (< 2 WHO criteria or no CHD signs/symptoms along with negative and/or questionable exercise-induced/stress electrocardiography) were also selected. The two study groups were stratified according to age, sex and ethnicity. Using Stata Corp 2001 statistical software release 7, and a multiple logistic regression procedure three models with large surfaces under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC)-curve (0,9331, 0,9350 and 0,9592) were built, for the recognition of CHD in black people. According to the Odds Ratios [95% Confidence Interval] the family history (FH) of myocardial infarction (MI; FHMI): 11,55 [2,63; 50,76]; >Gr II retinopathy (KWB): 8,18 [2,45; 27,26]; left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH): 7,13 [3,08; 16,55]; total cholesterol (TC): 6,4 [2,14; 19,09]; peripheral vascular disease (PVD): 3,72 [1,3; 9,99]; renal target organ damage: 3,41 [1,49; 7,78]; family history of hypertension (FHHT): 2,12 [0,89; 5,01]; and personal history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (NIDDM-II): 2,09 [0,65; 6,57] contributed significantly to the development of CHD in urban black people. From the comparisons between the models it can be concluded that the life-long exposure to lifestyle-related CHD risk factors (hypertension, NIDDM-II and elevated cholesterol levels), which were poorly controlled, along with genetic factors (FHMI and FHHT), lead to the development of CHD and target organ damage. It was accompanied by environmental factors such as poor socio-economic background and extended exposutre to urbanisation. The high prevalence rates of the known CHD risk factors resembled those of African American people with confirmed CHD. The Framingham absolute score for selected risk factor categories gave credibility to the risk factor status of both CHD patients as well as the control group. This is the first South-African study confirming the link between atherosclerotic CHD and the traditional CHD risk factors. A separate substudy using age- and sex-adjusted standardised mortality rates (MR) for CHD (ICDC 410-414) for the total white and black South African populations between 1970 and 1980 revealed a possible changing trend. The decline in white CHD MR in the younger age groups contrasts with those of black people. The observed (O) relative to the expected (E) CHD MR exceeded the 100% mark in the younger age groups. This observation is in agreement with the cumulative incidence rate (3,41) with a 95% confidence interval [2,51; 6,53] of this study relative to the study by Seftel et al. (1965-1968). Shortcomings in the reporting of CHD MR and the datasets, as well as inaccurate vital statistics, provide additional evidence of CHD mortality and morbidity in South African black people. The suggestion of a changing trend remains unsure. The two profiles of CHD in South African black people, 30-40 years apart, form the platform for proposed cardiovascular research in African black people. The study concludes with recommendations leveled at the National Department of Health for the treatment and prevention of CHD in South African black people. / Thesis (MD (Internal Medicine))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Internal Medicine / unrestricted

The purpose of this study was to identify the major components of affirmative action (AA) fairness and to develop a valid and reliable measuring instrument, which could be used to measure the perceptions of employees on AA fairness. A literature study and an empirical study were conducted. The literature study focused on fairness principles, outlined AA practices and identified work behaviours related to commitment. On completion of the literature study, a questionnaire was developed to collect information on respondents’ biographical details and their perceptions of the fairness of AA, the treatment of AA employees and employees’ commitment. Using SPSS, principal axis factor analysis was performed on the data, with a Varimax rotation, in order to uncover the different factors related to the three behavioural domains. Four factors for each of the behavioural domains with latent roots greater than unity (Kaiser’s criteria) were extracted from the factor matrix of each domain. The factors postulating the different behavioural domains are as follows: AA fairness: interactional justice, procedural justice (input), procedural justice (criteria) and distributive Justice Treatment of AA employees: task autonomy, respect, responsibility and realistic expectations on the part of supervisors Employees’ commitment: obedience, participation, satisfaction and loyalty The influence and effect of the biographical variables on fairness perceptions were determined by xiv comparing the responses of various employee subsets with one another by means of univariate and multivariate analysis of variance. The results of the t-tests revealed that staff category, marital status and ethnicity have a statistically significant effect on employees’ perceptions of the distributive justice of AA. Decisions such as granting AA employees token positions, paying unrealistically high salaries to AA managers and appointing less-qualified employees, play a key role when managers, married employees and whites form perceptions of the fairness of AA. Women consider procedural fairness, adhering to rules and regulations and loyalty to be of paramount importance. The MANOVAs and associated ANOVAs indicated that ethnicity, staff category and age must be considered for their significant effect on perceptions of distributive justice, autonomy, respect and loyalty. Blacks, contrary to whites, believe that AA employees are not treated with respect and are not accorded autonomy. Older employees and clerical staff tend to be more loyal than their counterparts. Multiple regression statistics were used to predict how the treatment of AA employees relates to perceptions of the fairness of AA. The results indicated that the more task autonomy and respect accorded to employees, the more likely they will perceive decisions about AA to be fair. This study represents a vital step towards a better understanding of the dimensionality of AA fairness and should ultimately contribute to more effective management of AA in the workplace. / Thesis (PhD (Human Resources Management))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Human Resource Management / unrestricted

The primary objective of this study is to decompose the conditional covariance matrix of a system of variables. A structural GARCH model is proposed which makes use of existing multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models to decompose the covariance matrix. The variables analysed in the study are the All Share index (ALSI) on the Johannesburg stock exchange, the South African Rand/US Dollar exchange rate (R/$) and the South African 90- day Treasury bill interest rate (Tbill). The contemporaneous structural parameters in the system of endogenous variables are identified using heteroscedasticity. Although the structural parameters of the system of variables hold important and interesting information, it is not the main focus of this study. Identifying the structural parameters can be seen as a necessary condition to decompose the conditional variance covariance matrix into an endogenous and exogenous part. The contribution of the study is twofold. The first contribution is methodological in nature, while the second is empirical. The study proposes a methodology that utilises two multivariate GARCH models to decompose the time-varying conditional covariance matrix of a system of assets, without imposing unnecessary constraints on the system. In doing so more information is obtained from decomposing the covariance matrix than what is available from existing or traditional multivariate GARCH models. The information allows the investor to analyse the structural relationships between variables in the system in both the first and the second moments. On an empirical level, the study analyses the structural relationship between financial variables in the South African economy using high-frequency data. The methodology utilised allows for consistent and efficient estimates of the structural contemporaneous relationships between these variables. The study also decomposes the volatility of each individual variable as well as the volatility between the variables. More information is gained on what drives the volatility of these variables, i.e. is volatility generated within the system, alternative to volatility generated from structural innovations or latent factors outside the system. The study finally shows how the information can be utilised in a portfolio management context. / Thesis (PhD (Econometrics))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Economics / unrestricted

One of the most important change drivers to influence the working environment of management accountants during recent years has been the phenomenal development of information technology. This and other change drivers have influenced the workplace to such an extent that questions have arisen as to whether there is a gap between management accounting education and expectations in practice. Various research articles on this topic, as well as the problem of how such a gap, if there is one, should be addressed, prompted this specific research problem. The core of the study comprised a literature study and an investigation by means of a questionnaire to ascertain whether the education of management accountants equipped them adequately for the tasks they are expected to fulfill in practice and, if a gap between education and practice should be identified, what the reasons for this gap could be. Given the reasons, recommendations were made relating to various stakeholders. The most important recommendations are that professional bodies, educators and practitioners should form a closer alliance so that education and practice can be kept in line with each other; that case studies should be incorporated into the syllabi in order to help bridge the gap between theory and practice, and that certain skills and techniques should get either more or less exposure in the syllabi. / Thesis (DCom (Financial Management Sciences))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Financial Management / unrestricted

In SA different tariffs exist on the importation of meat. While a zero tariff applies on the importation of live animals imported for breeding or slaughtering, a ban exists on the importation of live animals for slaughtering purposes. This is based on the DA’s opinion that slaughtering animals close to their place of origin and transporting the meat using modern refrigeration technology are better practices. Although the DA received only one official permit application, various firms expressed interest to import live sheep from Australia for slaughtering purposes. The motivation for and the purpose of the present study are to address the economic implications that such imports will have on the meat industry. This study’s main contribution was to estimate slaughtering functions for SA meat adopting a pragmatic approach using data for the period 1971 to 2002 on slaughterings, own and substitute meat prices, production costs, prices of complementary products, prices of other production alternatives, exposure to world markets, quality of grazing and heard numbers. Both singe equation and systems estimation procedures were employed to estimate empirical model parameters. The empirical analysis resulted in a meat slaughtering system. In the case of the slaughtering for mutton equation all signs of the estimated coefficients were consistent with expectations. In the slaughtering for beef and chicken meat equations only some signs of the estimated coefficients were consistent with expectations. The positive relationship between slaughtering for beef and quality of grazing was inconsistent with expectations. This may be attributed to quality of the data available to support specification of a more appropriate indicator of grazing quality. The positive relationship between chicken meat slaughterings and mutton prices were inconsistent with expectations, indicating that these two are not necessarily substitutes but rather complements. In terms of its size the intercept was the most powerful variable in all equations. Aside from the intercept the real own price the retailer realised over the past five years proved extremely powerful compared to the rest of the variables in the case of the slaughtering for mutton equation. The number of stock kept two years ago also deserves mentioning at about half of the above-mentioned variable’s magnitude. In the case of slaughtering for beef and chicken meat equations the power of variables are distributed more evenly. The price of mutton had the most power in both the slaughtering for beef and chicken meat equations. In terms of statistical significance the power of variables was evenly distributed in the slaughtering for mutton equation with the average degree of exposure to international trade during the last five years as the most powerful variable. In the case of the slaughtering for beef equation the current real price for mutton producers received for their products and the average seven year effect of the quality of grazing proved more powerful compared to the rest of the variables. In the case of slaughtering for chicken meat the intercept and time trend were extremely powerful compared to the rest of the variables. Despite its reported system wide R-square of 82 percent Adam’s (1998) meat demand system did not give good in sample forecasts. Instead it was decided to account for demand factors indirectly through an auction price system. The empirical analysis resulted in an auction price system where the auction price of mutton depends on the retail price (0.324) and total supply (-0.343); and the auction price of beef depends on disposable income (-0.719), the retail price (0.645), total supply (-0.330) and the effect of time (0.062). As the auction price system only included mutton and beef, the meat sub-sector model was reduced accordingly. In sample forecasting based on ex post within the sample data applying the dynamic-deterministic simulation of the Gauss-Seidel solution, proved satisfactory and the model therefore adequate to run policy simulation experiments. Two scenarios were tested, namely: (1) increasing mutton imports by 5.9 % every year from 1995 up to 2002; and (2) increasing mutton imports by 100 % every year from 1995 up to 2002. The results illustrated that the short-term impact of increased imports will lead to an increased supply of mutton on the domestic market at decreased consumer prices. Producer prices are expected to follow consumer prices and will accordingly also decrease. Decreased producer prices will result in decreased domestic slaughterings and, finally, increased imports will also decrease the price realised for substitute products. As the meat sub-sector, however, has time to adjust to increased levels of imports, some of the results seem to be surprising. Never the less, even the long-term effects remain negative, in general. As a long-term solution to improve the results of the policy question at hand it is recommended that both the private and public sector embark on an effort to improve SA’s database. In the case of the meat sector a relatively small sample of 30 data points exist, with structural breaks in almost all time series data. For short-term result improvements it is recommended that a number of assumptions made in this study be revisited: (1) alternative or improved econometric estimation techniques in order to include the pork and chicken meat industries, (2) substitution of the auction price system with a demand / consumption system, (3) extension of the product side of the model to al least incorporate land as a production factor and (4) revisiting the validity of applying classical OLS estimation techniques. / Dissertation (MCom (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

With the introduction of SFAS 95 in 1987, the cash flow statement became an integral part of financial reporting. With this a need arose for the development of ratios for the effective evaluation of the cash flow statement. The primary objective of this study was to determine the usefulness of the cash flow statement by means of cash flow ratios. Beaver (1966) was the first researcher to stress the importance of cash flow information for predicting financial failure and, therefore, the study investigated the available cash flow ratios of various authors. Eight cash flow ratios were suggested for inclusion in a financial analysis. Failed entities were selected and evaluated by means the selected cash flow ratios for five years prior to their failure. Non-failed entities were selected and included in the evaluation. The results of the ratios were used to calculate mean values for each ratio and year prior to failure. The ratios of the failed entities were compared with those of the non-failed entities. A comparison of the ratios revealed that the cash flow ratios have predictive value. The cash flow to total debt and ratio was identified as the ratio with the greatest potential to predict financial failure. The mean value of the ratio was weaker than the mean of the non-failed entities in four out of five years. The mean values of the cash flow ratios of the failed entities performed weaker overall than the non-failed entities. Failed entities not only have lower cash flows than non-failed entities but they also have smaller reserves of liquid assets. Therefore, they have less capacity to meet obligations and they tend to incur more debt. The ratios of the failed entities were also unstable. The study concluded that cash flow ratios calculated from the cash flow statement enhanced the usefulness of financial statements. A need, however, remains for consensus on a comprehensive set of cash flow ratios for financial analysis. If cash flow ratios are used in conjunction with traditional ratios it should lead to a better understanding of the financial strengths and weaknesses of an entity. / Thesis (DCom (Financial Management))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Financial Management / unrestricted

This study contributes to the debate regarding the impact of trade on manufacturing productivity and labour demand over the period 1980 to 2002. The analysis extends existing work in a number of ways. First, total factor productivity is decomposed into efficiency and technical change in order to provide more directions to policy makers. Second, an industry specific time varying measure of total factor productivity is estimated from an underlying production function using panel data of South African industrial sectors. Third, total factor productivity is interacted with trade measures, industry characteristics and macroeconomic factors to determine its key drivers. Finally, the impact of trade on derived labour demand is examined. Panel data econometric techniques are applied to estimate productivity loss due to technical inefficiency in South African manufacturing industries. Technical change and efficiency are estimated using stochastic frontier approaches that allow inefficiency to be either time invariant, or to evolve in a time varying decay mode. A generalised time index is employed to introduce more flexibility on the measurement of technical change. The results account for periods of technical progress as well as regress and indicate the presence of significant room for efficiency improvement, while the pattern of technical change was found to have been particularly slow over the period. The fact that a substantial amount of intermediate inputs into South African manufacturing are imported implies that significant improvement in industry efficiency will be related to the openness of trade policy in South Africa. More importantly, efficiency scores are also likely to be related to how labour force adjusts to these imported inputs. Skill improvements for the labour force are, therefore, fundamental, because the mix of goods manufactured and the factor proportions used to produce them depend on the skill competencies of local technicians. Skills are important for the labour force to produce at its full potential, avoiding waste in inputs and time. The estimation of the determinants of total factor productivity is able to account, in a simultaneous context, for the impact of trade policy, industry level characteristics and the role of macroeconomic factors. The results suggest positive payoffs for industrial productivity of an appropriately managed liberalisation of the external sector. Liberalisation of the external sector is good for competition and learning. Learning is available through increased access to world class intermediate inputs and technology. The evolution of derived labour demand in manufacturing is investigated using the dynamic Generalised Method of Moments estimator (GMM). The results indicate greater induced efficiency effects from some products entering South Africa that are produced at lower cost abroad than obtain for similar products in South Africa; such commodities have tended to displace South African products and labour. Increased import penetration serves to reduce inefficiency and encourages the use of new technology. The positive impact of export expansion on derived labour demand supports results from efficiency estimates that indicate the importance of skilled labour. Increased trade requires emphasis on skill development for the labour force, because intra-industry trade benefits can only arise in an environment in which the skill competencies of labour are improved. In a nutshell, trade has the potential to exact factor adjustment. It is therefore, important to identify the product specific effects that are inimical to some manufacturing sectors and which effects serve to reduce the level of employment in manufacturing for the sake of policy intervention. Increased trade with developed countries is found to provide South Africa with global production networks, where it supplies to the world market. In this arrangement, South Africa benefits from the use of the latest internationally available production and marketing techniques. These networks are important for accelerating the country’s development by transferring technology and innovation, as well as bringing new ideas, to increase its competitive advantage. This comparative advantage should be used to expand the untapped trade potential, particularly with the rest of Africa. However, more needs to be done to improve the technical competencies of industrial labour. Policies are also still required to significantly improve the speed of labour market adjustment. / Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Economics / unrestricted

This study takes an eclectic approach drawing on historic, theoretical and empirical sources to identify the main factors influencing the pattern and direction of South Africa’s trade. Rather than focusing on and proving or disproving individual theories, it looks at the broadly at various determinants of trade rather. Each of the theories that have been accepted as part of the canon of international trade theory explains part of the picture. This study therefore focuses on informing policy and therefore identifies and critically evaluates the determinants of South African exports and the role these determinants should have in policy development. Trade volume is usually seen as determined by the level of income level and relative prices. These are in turn determined by the dynamics of each GDP component (investment, consumption, public expenditure, exports); the price competitiveness of domestic production (influenced by exchange and relative inflation rates); non-price competitiveness of domestic production (product quality, technological innovativeness, design, promotion); the country’s attitude toward foreign goods; historical links with certain origin countries; and economic integration. This study attempts to isolate the determinants of export prices and volumes for the different manufacturing sectors. It will give policy-makers a clearer understanding of exporters and the factors that contribute to export growth, and will in turn inform policies, programmes and other export schemes. This information will allow the evaluation of the impact of their decisions and policies on each of the sectors’ export performance. Different sectors and industries face a myriad of different, and often unique conditions: elasticity, technology, market supply positions etc., and will therefore react differently to different policies. While government makes policy decisions that impact on the whole economy, it simultaneously has programmes that assist firms (particularly the Small Enterprise Development Agency (SEDA) and Trade and Investment South Africa (TISA)). This micro-level support and macro-policy must therefore operate together and complement each other. After setting the global and domestic scene, highlighting relevant events and trends that effect trade, this study critically evaluates international and South Africa applications of classical and new trade theories. From these processes, determinants are identified. Econometric models are then applied to test these determinants empirically. These techniques are applied to South Africa’s various sectors and industries thus giving macro- and meso-determinants. Qualitative techniques are then used to determine specific drivers at a firm level. From this a model is proposed for specific interventions to assist new exporters enter global markets, and to retain and grow existing exporters. Based on sound economic theory and the empirical findings from these research approaches, policy recommendations are made. In an increasingly competitive and uncompromising world, the role of sound policy is fundamental to economic success. This thesis argues that policy must be comprehensive and made with an understanding of the critical interactions in place. / Thesis (DCom (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Economics / unrestricted

The basic premise of this study is that the Church, with it’s prevailing representation and infrastructure, could be an important partner and role-player in existing development strategies and initiatives in especially the rural areas of South Africa. This study focuses on establishing a prima facie case by presenting two case studies from the author’s experience in the field of development, both of which make the positive contribution made by the local Church quite clear The study investigates the mixed, often disappointing results achieved by the prevailing, mainly positivistic, post modern approach to development over the last 50 years. By way of a literature study, some of the main problems and challenges experienced by the positivistic developmental model are analysed, expanding on the shortcoming of present models. It further expounds on how participation by the Church could contribute to the effective development of especially the rural people in South Africa, thereby allowing for a more integrated, community-centred approach. Manfred Max-Neef is considered the father of the community-centred development approach working from the premise that the development of people should be a commitment to value diversity and differences among people. He measures results in terms of nine human scale development indicators to determine whether the needs of people have been met, namely subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, participation, recreation, creativity, identity, and freedom. Max–Neef has therefore moved away from the positivistic belief that social and natural worlds are sufficiently similar to enable a “universal” approach in terms of development work in different communities. In this context, the study investigates the success of the role of the Church in terms of the case studies measured against five of the human scale indicators, This study aims not only to illuminate the unique role that the Church can play in sustainable development in South Africa, but, more importantly, to inspire it to rise to the challenge of actual participation in such development. / Dissertation (M Inst Agrar)--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

The primary goal of all research is to discover knowledge. The objectives of this research were; firstly, to investigate and describe the previous (that is pre-1994) and the current (post 1994) status of local government. Secondly, to identify and describe problems with service delivery at local sphere with particular reference to the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (the unit of analysis for the research). Thirdly, to investigate and explore the various delivery options that can be used as tools to improve the delivery process by exploring. Fourthly, the extent to which they are used presently at the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality and in the future. Finally, to provide guidelines and recommendations for implementation as a hypothetical model for use by The Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality and other municipalities in their efforts to improve/enhance service delivery. The year 1994 ushered in a new era for South Africa. It saw South Africa become a democratic country after decades of apartheid rule. Apartheid as a government system was discriminatory in nature on racial lines since 1948. The results of which are still felt and can be seen today. The apartheid system was such that government spending was directed towards the development of White people and White areas. The Black people were neglected with little or no spending on basic services such as health, housing, education, roads and infrastructure, water and electricity. In some respects the current government inherited a first world infrastructure, however it is still faced with third world issues and imperatives namely social development, service delivery, unemployment and poverty. The problem of service delivery backlogs is not one unique to South Africa but a problem faced by many African and developing nations. Creating the good life for its citizens will remain the challenge for the South African government on all its spheres, but even more so for the local sphere since municipalities (that make up this sphere) are the government closest to the people and interact more closely with communities through the delivery of the various services as required by the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996 (Act 108 of 1996). Municipalities, through their administration, policies and actions play a critical role in reshaping communities. Given the immense needs for service delivery particularly in previously neglected areas of the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality area, the research question asked was; To what extent can alternative delivery options be used to solve service delivery backlogs and problems in the local sphere of government in South Africa with particular reference to the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality? In the endeavour to answer the research question, a description of the current nature or status of local government in South Africa was given. An explanation was also given of the concept of alternative service delivery and the various alternative service delivery options that are available for application by municipalities such as the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality to enhance service delivery. It is a decade since South Africa became a democratic state and despite promises and efforts to improve service delivery to the public there still exist backlogs in service delivery. The research concluded that reform is obligatory to revitalise municipalities and enhance service delivery, thus ensuring access to services becomes a reality for all. It appears that based on this research, traditional institutional mechanisms and arrangements, and conventional management approaches have proved to be ineffective and inefficient to meet current realities of service delivery. Municipalities should remain true to the principle of a learning institution, continuously seeking to improve its performance by experimenting with new processes, approaches and ways of achieving its goals or by benchmarking. There is therefore, a need for innovative solutions, strategies and new ways of structuring institutions and delivering services. This implies a change in processes, a change in people and a change in culture. All municipalities including the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality need to constantly review and restructure their institutions in search for more effective ways of achieving goals and meeting service delivery needs of the communities they serve. However, a thorough institutional analysis of the status quo needs to be undertaken or else the restructuring endeavour is baseless and such an endeavour runs the risk of failure. Any restructuring endeavour is time consuming and complicated as all stakeholders have to be consulted and many circumstantial issues have to be considered. This study provides a recommended hypothetical model for reform that could be applied by municipalities wishing to reform for the purpose of enhancing service delivery. The model, though simplistic could serve as a basic guide that municipalities and municipal departments can use should they wish to undergo changes in order to improve service delivery. / Dissertation (MAdmin (Public Administration))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA) / unrestricted