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Probabilistic bisimulation is a widely studied equivalence relation for stochastic systems. However, it requires the behavior of the states to match on actions with matching labels. This does not allow bisimulation to capture symmetries in the system. In this thesis we define lax probabilistic bisimulation, in which actions are only required to match within given action equivalence classes. We provide a logical characterization and an algorithm for computing this equivalence relation for finite systems. We also specify a metric on states which assigns distance 0 to lax-bisimilar states. We end by examining the use of lax bisimulation for analyzing Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and show that it corresponds to the notion of a MDP homomorphism, introduced by Ravindran & Barto. Our metric provides an algorithm for generating an approximate MDP homomorphism and provides bounds on the quality of the best control policy that can be computed using this approximation.

Survival analysis is a well developed area which explores time to single event analysis. In some cases, however, such methods may not adequately capture the disease process as the disease progression may involve intermediate events of interest. Multistate models incorporate multiple events or states. This thesis proposes to demystify the theory of multistate models through an application based approach. We present the key components of multistate models, relevant derivations, model diagnostics and techniques for modeling the effect of covariates on transition intensities. The methods that are developed in the thesis are applied to HIV and TB data partly sourced from CAPRISA and the HPP programmes in the University of KwaZulu-Natal. HIV progression is investigated through the application of a five state Markov model with reversible transitions such that state 1: CD4 count 500, state 2: 350 CD4 count < 500, state 3: 200 CD4 count < 350, state 4: CD4 count < 200 and state 5: ARV initiation. The mean sojourn time in each state and transition probabilities are presented as well as the effect of covariates namely age, gender and baseline CD4 count on transition rates. A key finding, consistent with previous research, is that the rate of decline in CD4 count tends to decrease at lower levels of the marker. Further, patients enrolling with a CD4 count less than 350 had a far lower chance of immune recovery and a substantially higher chance of immune deterioration compared to patients with a higher CD4 count. We noted that older patients tend to progress more rapidly through the disease than younger patients. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2011.

The aim of this thesis is to first give a brief review of waiting line problems which often is a subject related to queueing theory. Simple counting processes such as the Poisson process and the duration of service time of each customer being exponentially distributed are often taught in a undergraduate or graduate stochastic process course. In this thesis, we will continue discussing such waiting line problems with priority assignment on each customer. This type of queueing processes are called priority queueing models. Patients requiring ER service are triaged and the order of providing service to patients more than often reflects early symptoms and complaints than final diagnoses. Triage systems used in hospitals vary from country to country and region to region. However, the goal of using a triage system is to ensure that the sickest patients are seen first. Such wait line system is much comparable to a priority queueing system in our study. The finite Markov chain imbedding technique is very effective in obtaining the waiting time distribution of runs and patterns. Applying this technique, we are able to obtain the probability distribution of customer wait time of priority queues. The results of this research can be applied directly when studying patient wait time of emergency medical service. Lengthy ER wait time issue often is studied from the view of limited spacing and complications in hospital administration and allocation of resources. In this thesis, we would like to study priority queueing systems by mathematical and probabilistic modeling.

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