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This dissertation is entitled "Essays in the International Economics of Credit and Banking". It comprises three essays. The first essay develops an empirical model of international credit with moral hazard and the risk of repudiation to examine (i) the determinants of the intertemporal and cross-national variations in credit ceilings and (ii) the channels through which output attracts foreign credit. It reports that productivity is the most important variable in attracting credit, followed by education, and then physical capital. Furthermore, international trade, country financial risk ratings, and geography explain more than 60% of the cross-national variations in credit ceiling. Therefore, international relations and investment in education and productivity-enhancing institutions are crucial in attracting foreign credit. / The second essay develops open-economy variants of the old Friedman-Schwartz and the new Lucas-Sargent-Wallace monetarist models to investigate the puzzle of monetary neutrality. The essay further introduces financial aggregation theories into the models. It studies the theoretical and business-cycle relationships between real output and financial aggregates, interest rates, exchange rate, and prices using Canadian quarterly data for the period 1959: 1 to 2002: 1. It reports that the open-economy variants of the monetarist models with aggregation-theoretic financial aggregates perform the best in producing significant sign patterns that are predicted by theory. Furthermore, Monte Carlo experiments show that large percentage of real output variance is explained by shocks to aggregation-theoretic financial aggregates relative to other variables. Thus, there is no difference between the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks. / The third essay examines the appropriate formulation of the monetary aggregate for the Nigerian economy for the period 1970:1-2000:4 for the determination of real output. This examination covers simple sum, variable elasticity of substitution (ves), and divisia (dv) aggregation over currency, demand deposits, and savings deposits. The user cost of liquid assets is employed in the construction of both the dv and the yes aggregates. Using maximum likelihood estimation technique, the essay reports that, for the Nigerian economy, currency does as well as or better than any narrow- or broad-money measure in explaining industrial production. Further, the simple sum m1 and m2 outperformed both the yes and dv aggregates. Therefore, monetary policy in Nigeria should focus on the supply of currency and/or of narrow money, rather than on broad money or the divisia aggregates.

There has been a great deal written about monetary policy, and about concepts which are, or seem to be, associated with monetary policy. The literature is broad and the opinions and views expressed are almost as large a variety as there are writers and scholars dealing with the subject. [...]

Why was it so difficult for European Union countries to establish the European Central Bank? In the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, EU governments committed themselves to an independent, stability-oriented ECB, and to ensuring low inflation rates and low budget deficits. Between 1992 and 1998, they fought over the terms of membership and whether European economic policy should promote growth more than stability. Political parties transmit voter preferences over growth and stability into national policy on the basic priorities of monetary union, while the arrangement of economic institutions reinforces or frustrates the ambitions of a governing coalition. This not only leads to governments with clear priorities that conflict at the European level. Governing coalitions frustrated by economic institutions that thwart their economic policies can promote monetary union in order to force changes domestically. Therefore, conflict arose among stability-oriented governments over whether low budget deficits and inflation were to be achieved before EMU was launched. This reflected the conflict between France and Germany. The dissertation examines the links between the politics of economic policy in France, Germany and Spain, and their policies toward Economic and Monetary Union.

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This dissertation states that the behavior of banks and investors varies according to the rules of the game and demonstrates that the level of institutional development may have an important role on the effectiveness of monetary policies. The level of institutional development is measured by the quality of contract enforcement, the level of corruption, the extent of political stability, the level of government's transparency and accountability and the quality of the implemented policies and regulations. This research presents a framework to explain how the traditional channels of monetary policy transmission are altered by the level of institutional development, allowing the construction of three hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that institutional development matters for the effects of monetary policies on output. The second hypothesis is that contractionary policies have more adverse effects on output in countries with low institutional development than in countries with high institutional development. The third hypothesis is that expansionary policies are more effective in terms of output promotion in countries with high institutional development than in countries with low institutional development. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that research has established a relationship between the level of institutional development and the asymmetric effects of monetary policies on output. Two country examples are presented: the case of Nigeria illustrates the third hypothesis and the case of Brazil illustrates the second hypothesis. Several econometric models and six institutional development indicators are used to evaluate the three hypotheses. This dissertation provides strong empirical support for the hypotheses 1 and 2, sustaining the argument that the asymmetric effects of monetary policies on output may have deep institutional causes. Rule of law and government effectiveness are the indicators that matter most for the effectiveness of monetary policies. Particular consideration should be given to the rule of law indicator because of its clear connection with the theoretical arguments and country examples, suggesting that fundamental institutional improvements should be focused on the efficiency of the judiciary system and the quality of law enforcement.

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My dissertation is composed of three sections. The first section examines the effect of monetary incentives on student performance in public education in Texas. I address how to deal with non-random samples caused by self-selection bias by using propensity score matching method. For the second part, using household level panel data, it addresses the substantial heterogeneity across demographic groups. In addition, for the last section, I also investigate firm’s optimal innovation strategy. It addresses the relationship among firm growth, firm size and firm behavior in the U.S. manufacturing industry. The first section investigates the causal relationship between a teacher incentive program (District Awards for Teacher Excellence (D.A.T.E.) Program) and student academic achievement in Texas by using school-grade level panel data. I find that D.A.T.E. schools obtain significantly higher student achievement gains in reading and math than non-D.A.T.E. schools after the implementation of the program. In addition, D.A.T.E. schools implementing selected school plan obtain greater student achievement gains than those implementing district wide plan. However, the causal effects are found mainly among middle school. Importantly, these findings imply that the teacher incentive program could be an effective policy tool in Texas for developing student performance, but should be cautiously implemented due to the difference in effects according to the U.S. school level. The second section shows that while financial benefit and moral hazard appears to be the main cause of bankruptcy for less educated individuals, well-educated individuals file due to negative income shocks. This is consistent with some evidence suggesting that educated individuals face greater stigma and/or worse information regarding bankruptcy than less-educated individuals. Importantly, these results imply that optimal bankruptcy policy should likely vary across different demographic groups. In the third section, I find that firm size is negatively related to firm growth and positively correlated with firm survivability in the manufacturing industry. R&D investment has a significantly positive effect on firm growth and survivability in the same industry. In the services industry, advertising investment causes a reverse effect on firm growth. This suggests that innovative activities should vary depending on the characteristics of each industry.

Diss. Uppsala : Uppsala Universitet, 2005.