A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the discharge of excessive nitrogen from nonpoint sources (NPSs) to a stream was performed for a small agricultural watershed in northern Virginia. Risk, by definition, is the product of the frequency of occurrence of an event and the consequences of that event. The purpose of this research was to determine the probability of occurrence of a nitrogen discharge event (i.e., frequency). The consequences of such a discharge event were not explicitly determined but were implicitly assumed to be negative in nature. An event tree was developed to show the basic hydrologic processes at work in a small watershed. However, the event tree could not be used to discover the causes for nitrogen loss from the watershed. Therefore, a fault tree was developed for excessive nitrogen discharge in surface runoff on any day from agricultural sources. The development of the fault tree was found to be a useful exercise in understanding the intricate cause and effect relationships between agricultural practices and NPS pollution. Based on the results, the fault tree methodology might be used as an effective teaching or communication tool. The fault tree was also evaluated quantitatively to determine a probability of occurrence for excessive nitrogen discharge to the stream on any day. Land use, fertilization, monitoring, and long-term weather records were used in conjunction with scientific judgment and expert opinion to establish the probabilities within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of nitrogen discharge to the stream on any day. The results obtained from the fault tree calculations tend to underestimate the importance of cropland best management practices (BMPs) over the long term, because the fault tree was developed on a daily basis (i.e., every day in a year has the same probability of a discharge event occurring). A more accurate depiction of the NPS pollution control problem was achieved by assuming the occurrence of a runoff event. A second fault tree was presented for the discharge of excessive nitrogen to the stream during a runoff event. The quantitative assessment of the new fault tree showed more clearly the impact of BMPs on reducing the likelihood of nitrogen discharge. A 0.15 decrease in the probability of nitrogen discharge during a runoff event was calculated for the Owl Run watershed from 1987 to 1993 due to the effects of BMPs installed during that time period. A 0.20 decrease was calculated for an Owl Run subwatershed for the same time period. This subwatershed isolated two major dairy operations and the effects of the BMPs installed for those dairies. Despite the success of the fault tree in mirroring changes within the watershed, the amount of data and time required to perform the quantitative assessment may limit its use in the NPS pollution control field. The basic nature of the fault tree technique also limits its usefulness in the field. One such limitation is that degrees of events cannot be expressed. For example, a BMP is either present or not present on a fault tree. There can be no indication of how effective the BMP is in preventing NPS pollution without substantially increasing the level of detail displayed by the tree. Another limitation is that the ultimate result of the fault tree calculations is a probability of occurrence. This value is not as easily understood as the output of NPS pollution computer models, for example, where the output has specific meaning and units (e.g., milligrams of nitrogen per liter of runoff). The qualitative fault tree, however, has the advantage over computer models when it comes to understanding the concepts behind the technique and being able to see the cause and effect relationships at work in the watershed. Laypersons can understand the fault tree more easily than the complex computer code and intricate equations of models. / Master of Science

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 2007. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 135-150). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Thesis(M.S.)--Auburn University, 2005. / Abstract. Vita. Includes bibliographic references.

Thesis (Ph.D.). / Written for the Dept. of Bioresource Engineering. Title from title page of PDF (viewed 2008/01/12). Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2005 / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vi, 113 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 107-113).

Clostridium perfringens (CP) was evaluated as an additional indicator in assessing impacts and sources of microbial pollution in the Idaho-Utah Cache Valley . Point , nonpoint, river water, and animal fecal samples were analyzed for CP, total coliforms, fecal collforms, and fecal streptococci. Monthly river samples consistently contained <20 CP/100 mL , but concentrations of the other indicators varied significantly by location and date. Two sample stations consistently had CP concentrations greater than 20 / 100 mL . One of these stations was influenced by an upstream wastewater discharge . Chlorinated effluent from this trickling filter plant contained greater than 103 CP / 100 mL, but met a 400 FC/100 mL discharge standard. A consistent decrease in CP concentrations in samples taken downstream from this wastewater source were fo und, despite significant impact from adjacent nonpoint pollution. Lagoon and oxidation ditch wastewater effluents sampled contained <20 CP/100 mL. Nonpoint sources sampled (e.g . , cattle feedlot runoff) contained <20 CP / 100 mL and 102-104/100 mL coliforms and fecal streptococcus. Cattle, horse, and sheep feces analyzed contained 104-107/g coliforms and fecal streptococcus, but less than 102 CP/g. Nonpoint pollution from such animals may contribute significant coliforms and streptococci but not CP. Wastewater treatment effluents may or may not contain elevated levels of CP depending on factors such as wastewater residence time and particular treatment process employed. The occurrence of relatively high, i.e., >102 CP/100 mL, in areas impacted by nonpoint sources may suggest a municipal wastewater input. Coliform and streptococci indicators may not be able to distinguish municipal or domestic microbial loading in the presence of nonpoint source interferences in many circumstances.

<p><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">The most significant human impacts on the hydrological system are due to land-use change. The conversion of land to agricultural, mining, industrial, or residential uses significantly alters the hydrological characteristics of the land surface and modifies pathways and rates of water flow. If this occurs over large or critical areas of a catchment, it can have significant short and long-term impacts, on the quality of water. While there are methods available to quantify the pollutants in surface water, methods of linking non-point source pollution to water quality at catchment scale are lacking. Therefore, the research presented in this thesis investigated modelling techniques to estimate the effect of land-cover type on water quality. The main goal of the study was to contribute towards improving the understanding of how different land-covers in an urbanizing catchment affect surface water quality. The aim of the research presented in this thesis was to explain how the quality of surface runoff varies on different land-cover types and to provide guidelines for minimizing water pollution that may be occurring in the Kuils-Eerste River catchment. The research objectives were / (1) to establish types and spatial distribution of land-cover types within the Kuils-Eerste River catchment, (2) to establish water quality characteristics of surface runoff from specific land-cover types at the experimental plot level, (3) to establish the contribution of each land-cover type to pollutant loads at the catchment scale.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">Land-cover characteristics and water quality were investigated using GIS and Remote Sensing tools. The application of these tools resulted in the development of a land-cover map with 36 land classifications covering the whole catchment. Land-cover in the catchment is predominantly agricultural with vineyards and grassland covering the northern section of the catchment. Vineyards occupy over 35% of the total area followed by fynbos (indigenous vegetation) (12.5 %), open hard rock area (5.8 %), riparian forest (5.2 %), mountain forest<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp / &nbsp / </span>(5 %), dense scrub (4.4 %), and improved grassland (3.6 %). The residential area covers about 14 %. Roads cover 3.4 % of the total area. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">Surface runoff is responsible for the transportation of large quantities of pollutants that affect the quality of water in the Kuils-Eerste River catchment. The different land-cover types and the distribution and concentration levels of the pollutants are not uniform. Experimental work was conducted at plot scale to understand whether land-cover types differed in their contributions to the concentration of water quality attributes emerging from them.<span style="color:black"> Four plots each with a length of 10 m to 12 m and 5 m width were set up. Plot I was set up on open grassland, Plot II represented the vineyards, Plot III covered the mountain forests, and Plot IV represented the fynbos land-cover.</span> Soil samples analyzed from the experimental plots fell in the category of sandy soil (Sa) with the top layer of Plot IV (fynbos) having loamy sand (LmSa). The soil particle sizes range between fine sand (59.1 % and 78.9 %) to coarse sand (between 7 % and 22 %). The content of clay and silt was between 0.2 % and 2.4 %. Medium sand was between 10.7 % and 17.6 %. In terms of vertical distribution of the particle sizes, a general decrease with respect to the size of particles was noted from the top layer (15 cm) to the bottom layer (30 cm) for all categories of the particle sizes. There was variation in particle size with depth and location within the experimental plots.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">Two primary methods of collecting water samples were used / grab sampling and composite sampling. The quality of water as represented by the samples collected during storm events during the rainfall season of 2006 and 2007 was<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp / </span>used to establish <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp / </span>water quality characteristics for the different land-cover types. The concentration of total average suspended solids was highest in the following land-cover types, cemeteries (5.06 mg L^-1), arterial roads/main roads (3.94 mg L^-1), low density residential informal squatter camps (3.21 mg L^-1) and medium density residential informal townships (3.21 mg L^-1). Chloride concentrations were high on the following land-cover types, recreation grass/ golf course (2.61 mg L^-1), open area/barren land (1.59 mg L^-1), and improved grassland/vegetation crop (1.57 mg L^-1). The event mean concentration (EMC) values for NO₃-N were high on commercial mercantile (6 mg L^-1) and water channel (5 mg L^-1). The total phosphorus concentration mean values recorded high values on improved grassland/vegetation crop (3.78 mg L^-1), medium density residential informal townships (3mgL^-1) and low density residential informal squatter camps (3 mg L^-1). Surface runoff may also contribute soil particles into rivers during rainfall events, particularly from areas of disturbed soil, for example areas where market gardening is taking place. The study found that different land cover types contributed differently to nonpoint source pollution. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">A GIS model was used to estimate the diffuse pollution of five pollutants (chloride, phosphorus, TSS, nitrogen and NO₃-N) in response to land cover variation using water quality data. The GIS model linked land cover information to diffuse nutrient signatures in response to surface runoff using the Curve Number method and EMC data were developed. Two models (RINSPE and N-SPECT) were used to estimate nonpoint source pollution using various GIS databases. The outputs from the GIS-based model were compared with recommended water quality standards. It was found that the RINSPE model gave accurate results in cases where NPS pollution dominate the total pollutant inputs over a given land cover type. However, the N-SPECT model simulations were too uncertain in cases where there were large numbers of land cover types with diverse NPS pollution load. All land-cover types with concentration values above the recommended national water quality standard were considered as areas that needed measures to mitigate the adverse effects of nonpoint pollution. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">The expansion of urban areas and agricultural land has a direct effect on land cover types within the catchment. 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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2003. / Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 465 p.; also includes graphics. Includes abstract and vita. Advisor: Allan Randall, Interdisciplinary Program. Includes bibliographical references (p. 161-165).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2003. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains xxi, 298 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Vita. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 149-157).

<p><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">The most significant human impacts on the hydrological system are due to land-use change. The conversion of land to agricultural, mining, industrial, or residential uses significantly alters the hydrological characteristics of the land surface and modifies pathways and rates of water flow. If this occurs over large or critical areas of a catchment, it can have significant short and long-term impacts, on the quality of water. While there are methods available to quantify the pollutants in surface water, methods of linking non-point source pollution to water quality at catchment scale are lacking. Therefore, the research presented in this thesis investigated modelling techniques to estimate the effect of land-cover type on water quality. The main goal of the study was to contribute towards improving the understanding of how different land-covers in an urbanizing catchment affect surface water quality. The aim of the research presented in this thesis was to explain how the quality of surface runoff varies on different land-cover types and to provide guidelines for minimizing water pollution that may be occurring in the Kuils-Eerste River catchment. The research objectives were / (1) to establish types and spatial distribution of land-cover types within the Kuils-Eerste River catchment, (2) to establish water quality characteristics of surface runoff from specific land-cover types at the experimental plot level, (3) to establish the contribution of each land-cover type to pollutant loads at the catchment scale.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">Land-cover characteristics and water quality were investigated using GIS and Remote Sensing tools. The application of these tools resulted in the development of a land-cover map with 36 land classifications covering the whole catchment. Land-cover in the catchment is predominantly agricultural with vineyards and grassland covering the northern section of the catchment. Vineyards occupy over 35% of the total area followed by fynbos (indigenous vegetation) (12.5 %), open hard rock area (5.8 %), riparian forest (5.2 %), mountain forest<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp / &nbsp / </span>(5 %), dense scrub (4.4 %), and improved grassland (3.6 %). The residential area covers about 14 %. Roads cover 3.4 % of the total area. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">Surface runoff is responsible for the transportation of large quantities of pollutants that affect the quality of water in the Kuils-Eerste River catchment. The different land-cover types and the distribution and concentration levels of the pollutants are not uniform. Experimental work was conducted at plot scale to understand whether land-cover types differed in their contributions to the concentration of water quality attributes emerging from them.<span style="color:black"> Four plots each with a length of 10 m to 12 m and 5 m width were set up. Plot I was set up on open grassland, Plot II represented the vineyards, Plot III covered the mountain forests, and Plot IV represented the fynbos land-cover.</span> Soil samples analyzed from the experimental plots fell in the category of sandy soil (Sa) with the top layer of Plot IV (fynbos) having loamy sand (LmSa). The soil particle sizes range between fine sand (59.1 % and 78.9 %) to coarse sand (between 7 % and 22 %). The content of clay and silt was between 0.2 % and 2.4 %. Medium sand was between 10.7 % and 17.6 %. In terms of vertical distribution of the particle sizes, a general decrease with respect to the size of particles was noted from the top layer (15 cm) to the bottom layer (30 cm) for all categories of the particle sizes. There was variation in particle size with depth and location within the experimental plots.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">Two primary methods of collecting water samples were used / grab sampling and composite sampling. The quality of water as represented by the samples collected during storm events during the rainfall season of 2006 and 2007 was<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp / </span>used to establish <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp / </span>water quality characteristics for the different land-cover types. The concentration of total average suspended solids was highest in the following land-cover types, cemeteries (5.06 mg L^-1), arterial roads/main roads (3.94 mg L^-1), low density residential informal squatter camps (3.21 mg L^-1) and medium density residential informal townships (3.21 mg L^-1). Chloride concentrations were high on the following land-cover types, recreation grass/ golf course (2.61 mg L^-1), open area/barren land (1.59 mg L^-1), and improved grassland/vegetation crop (1.57 mg L^-1). The event mean concentration (EMC) values for NO₃-N were high on commercial mercantile (6 mg L^-1) and water channel (5 mg L^-1). The total phosphorus concentration mean values recorded high values on improved grassland/vegetation crop (3.78 mg L^-1), medium density residential informal townships (3mgL^-1) and low density residential informal squatter camps (3 mg L^-1). Surface runoff may also contribute soil particles into rivers during rainfall events, particularly from areas of disturbed soil, for example areas where market gardening is taking place. The study found that different land cover types contributed differently to nonpoint source pollution. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">A GIS model was used to estimate the diffuse pollution of five pollutants (chloride, phosphorus, TSS, nitrogen and NO₃-N) in response to land cover variation using water quality data. The GIS model linked land cover information to diffuse nutrient signatures in response to surface runoff using the Curve Number method and EMC data were developed. Two models (RINSPE and N-SPECT) were used to estimate nonpoint source pollution using various GIS databases. The outputs from the GIS-based model were compared with recommended water quality standards. It was found that the RINSPE model gave accurate results in cases where NPS pollution dominate the total pollutant inputs over a given land cover type. However, the N-SPECT model simulations were too uncertain in cases where there were large numbers of land cover types with diverse NPS pollution load. All land-cover types with concentration values above the recommended national water quality standard were considered as areas that needed measures to mitigate the adverse effects of nonpoint pollution. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12.0pt / line-height:150% / font-family:&quot / Times New Roman&quot / ,&quot / serif&quot / ">The expansion of urban areas and agricultural land has a direct effect on land cover types within the catchment. 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