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Uncertainty Analysis of the NONROAD Emissions Model for the State of GeorgiaChi, Tien-Ru Rosa 23 August 2004 (has links)
Understanding uncertainty in emissions inventories is critical for evaluating both air quality modeling results as well as impacts of emissions reduction strategies. This study focused on quantification of uncertainty due to non-road emissions specifically for the state of Georgia using the EPA NONROAD emissions model. Nonroad engines contribute significantly to anthropogenic emissions inventories, with national estimates for various criteria pollutants ranging from 14% to 22%. The NONROAD model is designed to estimate emissions for any area in the United States based on population, activity, and emissions data. Information used in the model comes from a variety of sources collected over many years. A sensitivity analysis of the model determined the input variables that have significant effects on emissions. Results showed that model estimated emissions are significantly sensitive to increases in equipment population, activity, load factor, and emission factor. Increases in ambient temperature, fuel RVP, fuel sulfur (except on SO2), and average useful life have smaller effects. Emissions and activity data used in the NONROAD model were analyzed using statistical techniques to quantify uncertainty in the input parameters. Expert elicitation was also used to estimate uncertainties in emission factors, equipment population, activity, load factors, and geographic allocations of the emissions to the county level. A Monte Carlo approach using the derived parameter uncertainties and different input probability distributions was used to estimate the overall uncertainty of emissions from the NONROAD model for the state of Georgia. The uncertainties resulting from this analysis were significant, with 95% confidence intervals about the mean ranging from ?? to +61% for THC, -46 to +68% for NOx, -43% to 75% for CO, and ?? to +75% for PM. The sensitivity of ozone and CO for different regions in Georgia to NONROAD emissions in Georgia was also estimated. The analysis suggests that uncertainties in ozone and CO simulations due to NONROAD emissions uncertainties, averaged over the regions of interest, are not large, with resulting maximum coefficients of variation of 1% and 10% respectively.
A Study Of Central Florida Nonroad Voc And Nos Emissions And Potential Actions To Reduce EmissionsRadford, Michael 01 January 2009 (has links)
Ground-level ozone is harmful to the human respiratory system, as well as the environment. The national EPA 8-hour ozone standard for ground-level ozone was reduced from 85 parts per billion (ppb) to 75 ppb in 2008, and trends from previous years show that some of the counties in Central Florida could be in danger of violation. Violation means "non attainment" status; in which the county is ordered by EPA to develop specific implementation plans to reduce its emissions. The objective of this study was to compile an emissions inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from nonroad equipment in Osceola, Seminole, and Orange Counties (OSO) in Central Florida, and to develop possible action steps to reduce those emissions. This is important because VOC and NOx emissions are precursors to ground-level ozone. Thus, compiling emissions inventories is important to identify high VOC and NOx emitters. Mobile and point sources have long been the highest emitters of VOC and NOx and have therefore been targeted and monitored since the Clean Air Act of 1970, but the nonroad sources (such as construction and lawn equipment) have only been regulated since the 1990s. Using the NONROAD and NMIM modeling programs, the highest nonroad emitters of VOC for Central Florida were found to be lawn/garden equipment, and boating equipment, emitting a combined percentage of 77% of the total nonroad mobile source VOC. Construction equipment contributed 67% of the total nonroad mobile source emissions of NOx in Central Florida. The components of these categories were also analyzed to find the largest individual sources of VOC and NOx. Of the individual sources, lawn mowers and outboard boat engines were found to be the largest sources of VOCs. Of the NOx sources, all the construction equipment components had a relatively similar level of NOx emissions. Next, action steps were developed to reduce emissions, focusing on the high emitters, along with an estimated cost and feasibility for each measure. Of these steps, implementing a ban on leafblowers, and reducing use of lawn mowers, edgers, trimmers, etc. seemed to be the most effective for reducing VOCs. Although these are effective measures, the cost and feasibility of both pose challenges. The best action step for reducing NOx emissions in construction equipment seemed to be by simply reducing idling of equipment on job sites. This also poses challenges in feasibility and enforcement by management. Further, constant on/off cycles could result in decreasing the useful life of the older construction equipment. Finally, a survey was conducted with various construction managers and companies to find out the typical equipment and quantity needed for land clearing/grubbing, as well as the typical use, idling time, and total project time for each piece of equipment on a 10-acre site, under various conditions. The purpose of the study was to develop a rough estimate for the average amount of VOC and NOx emissions that will be produced per acre of land clearing activities, and to estimate the emissions reductions and cost savings if idling of the equipment was reduced.
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