We assess empirically the role played by prospective ageing measures as a predictor of income growth in Europe. We show that prospective ageing measures which move beyond chronological age and incorporate changes in life expectancy are able to explain better the recent long-run growth experience of European economies. The improvement in explanatory power of prospective ageing indicators as compared to standard measures based on chronological age is particularly relevant for long-run economic growth horizons. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Has economic integration improved the postwar growth performance of the actual fifteen member states of the European Union (EU)? To answer this question, we first construct an index of integration for each member state that explicitly accounts for global integration (GATT) as well as regional (European) integration. Using this variable, we test for permanent and temporary growth effects in a dynamic growth accounting framework, both in a time series setting for the (aggregate) EU and a panel approach for the EU member states. Although the hypothesis of permanent growth effects as postulated by endogenous growth models with scale effects is clearly rejected, we find significant levels effects: GDP per capita of the EU would be approximately one fifth lower today, if no integration had taken place since 1950. Interestingly, two third of this effect are due to GATT-liberalization. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

This paper estimates the effects of imports on employment, wages, and the wage share in Austria for the period of 1990-2005 using panel data of manufacturing industry. Imports are disaggregated according to their origin and as final vs. intermediate imports. There is evidence of significant negative effects of imports on employment, wages and the wage share. Particularly workers in high skilled sectors experience negative effects. Offshoring to both Eastern Europe and the developed countries have a negative impact on employment, whereas offshoring to the East has a positive effect on wages, indicating the dominance of scope effects. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Since 1975, the extent of catching-up has been very different across Southern regions. Starting from the common arguments of growth theory, the paper wishes to show whether differences in regional income and growth can be attributed to different endowment in human capital, differences in private or public investment level, to structural imbalances, and labour force participation. The investigated panel consists of regional time series for the period 1975 to 1994 and includes NUTS II level regions of Greece, Spain, and the Italian South. Estimation of the impact of the variables on regional income is effected in a dynamic panel data model applying a GMM estimation procedure. The results indicate that the income level of Southern EU regions is largely determined by employment/educational levels and past public investment, while the impact of private investment is not significant. One may follow that EU regional policies should predominately focus on the human factor. Assistance to member countries to upgrade public infra-structures may be continued, but private investment incentives should be curbed. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

In this paper we present an econometric framework aimed at obtaining projections of income growth in Europe at the regional level. We account for model uncertainty in terms of the choice of explanatory variables, as well as the nature of the spatial spillovers of output growth and human capital investment. Building on recent advances in Bayesian model averaging, we construct projected trajectories of income and human capital simultaneously, while integrating out the effects of other covariates. This approach allows us to assess the potential contribution of future educational attainment to economic growth and income convergence among European regions over the next decades. Our findings suggest that income convergence dynamics and human capital act as important drivers of income growth for the decades to come. In addition we find that the relative return of improving educational attainment levels in terms of economic growth appears to be higher in peripheral European regions. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This paper estimates the effects of outward Foreign Direct Investment (employment in the affiliates abroad) on employment, wages, and the wage share in Austria using panel data for the period of 1996-2005. There is evidence of significant negative effects of FDI on both employment and wages, and consequently on the wage share. The results are not limited to workers in low skilled sectors or blue collar workers. The negative employment effect is primarily due to the rise in the employment in the foreign affiliates in Eastern Euope. The negative wage effects are originating from affiliate employment in both the East and the developed countries in industry, but no effect is found in the total economy. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This paper adopts a spatial econometric perspective to analyse regional convergence of per capita income in Europe in 1995 to 2000 and, moreover, relaxes the assumption of a single steady-state growth path which appears to be out of tune with reality of empirical dynamics. The two-club spatial error convergence model with groupwise heteroskedasticity is found to be most appropriate for the data at hand. Two empirical key findings are worthwhile to note. The first is that the data provide much support for unconditional ß-convergence in Europe. The second is that the usual convergence conclusions hold. But they do so for reasons that are not revealed by the classical test equation that is typical in mainstream economics literature. (authors' abstract)

This paper investigates the impact of knowledge capital stocks on total factor productivity through the lens of the knowledge capital model proposed by Griliches (1979), augmented with a spatially discounted cross-region knowledge spillover pool variable. The objective is to shift attention from firms and industries to regions and to estimate the impact of cross-region knowledge spillovers on total factor productivity (TFP) in Europe. The dependent variable is the region-level TFP, measured in terms of the superlative TFP index suggested by Caves, Christensen and Diewert (1982). This index describes how efficiently each region transforms physical capital and labour into output. The explanatory variables are internal and out-of-region stocks of knowledge, the latter capturing the contribution of cross-region knowledge spillovers. We construct patent stocks to proxy regional knowledge capital stocks for N=203 regions over the 1997- 2002 time period. In estimating the effects we implement a spatial panel data model that controls for the spatial autocorrelation due to neighbouring regions and the individual heterogeneity across regions. The findings provide a fairly remarkable confirmation of the role of knowledge capital contributing to productivity differences among regions, and add an important spatial dimension to the discussion, by showing that productivity effects of knowledge spillovers increase with geographic proximity. (authors' abstract)

In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for uncertainty in spatial linkages. Our procedure is applied to a dataset of income per capita growth and 50 potential determinants for 255 NUTS-2 European regions. We show that ignoring uncertainty in the type of spatial weight matrix can have an important effect on the estimates of the parameters attached to the model covariates. After integrating out the uncertainty implied by the choice of regressors and spatial links, human capital investments and transitional dynamics related to income convergence appear as the most robust determinants of growth at the regional level in Europe. Our results imply that a quantitatively important part of the income convergence process in Europe is influenced by spatially correlated growth spillovers.

This paper investigates the impact of knowledge capital stocks on total factor productivity through the lens of the knowledge capital model proposed by Griliches (1979), augmented with a spatially discounted cross-region knowledge spillover pool variable. The objective is to shift attention from firms and industries to regions and to estimate the impact of cross-region knowledge spillovers on total factor productivity (TFP) in Europe. The dependent variable is the region-level TFP, measured in terms of the superlative TFP index suggested by Caves, Christensen and Diewert (1982). This index describes how efficiently each region transforms physical capital and labour into output. The explanatory variables are internal and out-of-region stocks of knowledge, the latter capturing the contribution of cross-region knowledge spillovers. We construct patent stocks to proxy regional knowledge capital stocks for N=203 regions over the 1997- 2002 time period. In estimating the effects we implement a spatial panel data model that controls for the spatial autocorrelation due to neighbouring regions and the individual heterogeneity across regions. The findings provide a fairly remarkable confirmation of the role of knowledge capital contributing to productivity differences among regions, and add an important spatial dimension to the discussion, by showing that productivity effects of knowledge spillovers increase with geographic proximity. (authors' abstract)