Zugl.: Frankfurt (Main), Hochsch. für Bankwirtschaft, Diplomarbeit.

The purpose of this research study was to empirically study the temporal order of events of postmortem changes in Missoula, Montana utilizing pig (Sus scrofa) cadavers as human proxies by documenting postmortem changes and rate of soft tissue decomposition of three pigs over the course of one year and 19 days. The data from this study will be compared and contrasted to studies that have occurred elsewhere. A full understanding of the postmortem changes and rate of soft tissue decomposition in this area will help forensic anthropologists better understand why the postmortem interval (PMI) may be different in western Montana than in other states or countries. The current research study reveals that previous methods for estimating the PMI using accumulated degree-days (ADD) and total body score (TBS) are not appropriate for Montana, as the climates are too disparate. Building a body of longitudinal data that documents environmentally related soft tissue decomposition or change will be a first step towards developing a decomposition sequence and time scheme that can be used to more accurately estimate the PMI in this region. In Montana a number of partially decomposed cases enter the medico-legal system each year. Thus, greater knowledge about the postmortem period will be a significant contribution to members of the medico-legal community as well as the criminal justice system. In addition, this data could be extended to similar climatic zones.

The study tries to apply the theoretical value of options and empirical operation of the Options of Taiwan Security Exchange Index via the application of transaction strategy to evaluate the opportunity of profit. In addition, considering the association of maximum of profit and risk, the study tries to find better transaction strategies and profitable models in order to provide investors possible suggestions. Because of the expiration dates of options, time value, implied volatility and the strike prices of unsettled contracts reflect the investors¡¦ expectation of the market. Though the direction of the index unavoidably is influenced by the factors such as the politics and the economy, it is the critical point how to catch the direction and trends of the market and obtain the opportunity to make profit.

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With the rapid development of option markets throughout the world, option pricing has become an important field in financial engineering. Among a variety of option pricing models, volatility of underlying asset is associated with risk and uncertainty, and hence is treated as one of the key factors affecting the price of an option. In particular, in the framework of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, volatility of the underlying stock is the only unobservable variable, and has attracted a large amount of attention of both academics and practitioners. This thesis is concerned with the implied volatility in the Australian index option market. Two interesting problems are examined. First, the relation between implied volatility and subsequently realized volatility is investigated by using the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) index options over a five-year period from April 2001 to March 2006. Unlike the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the XJO index options are traded infrequently, in low volumes, and with a long maturity cycle. This implies that the errors-in-variable problem for the measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by the instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put options implied volatilities are nearly unbiased and superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Second, the volatility structure implied by the XJO index options is examined during the period from April 2001 to June 2005. The volatility structure with respect to moneyness and time to maturity are investigated for both call and put option price series. It is found that the volatility smile largely exists, with call (put) option implied volatilities decreasing monotonically as the call (put) goes deeper out of the money (in the money). This result is consistent with the welldocumented evidence of volatility smile on other index options since the stock market crash of 1987. In summary, this thesis presents some important findings on the volatility inferred from the XJO index options traded on the ASX.

This paper has two researches direction, one is in the pricing and application of a probation option, the other is in the pricing and application of an American option. In the research of a probation option, this paper used the concept of the marketing strategy to be the source of financial innovation, and therefore decision a new exotic option. We call this option is a probation option. We introduce the application of this option, and further more to device the value of this option. Beside, this option also can apply to the field of marketing, and to calculate the cost of marketing strategy. In the research of an American, this paper proposes a new method- the implied belief model, to obtain a closed-form solution of the value of the American option. We analyze the value of the American option through the view point of the sellers of the options. By adopting this method, we derive the upper bound for the value of an American option. Then we define the belief value of seller to obtain a closed-form solution of the value of an American option. Finally, we apply the method to S&P 100 American option and deduce the implied belief value.

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Thesis (M.B.A.)--Boston University / PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you. / 2031-01-01

A key issue for sustainability planning is how to integrate economic, social and environmental concerns in the process of evaluating possible management actions. This thesis is particularly concerned with evaluating natural resource management actions. Integrated evaluation tools may assist in weighing up multi-dimensional pros and cons of each management action. These tools aid decision making in two main ways; helping a decision maker to clarify his or her thoughts and suggesting preferable management options. Many integrated evaluation tools produce a ranking of options, from most to least preferred, in order to guide the choice of a management option. They achieve this by integrating impact assessment data, on how well management options perform economically, socially and environmentally, with a decision maker’s value judgements. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for example, often ask the user to specify what weight of importance each impact category should have in the appraisal of management options. If the impact data is in time series, a decision maker may be asked to consider how important future impacts are in comparison to short term impacts. The economic method of discounting future impacts is regularly utilised to aggregate a time-series of impact data. This thesis looks beyond weighting and discounting, and explores tools which may better formalise value judgements about: balancing economic, social and environmental outcomes and; intergenerational equity. Such tools may be more effective in helping a decision maker to clarify his or her thoughts and in suggesting appropriate courses of action. A water resource case study is utilised to illustrate some of the alternatives identified. A major contribution of this thesis is a new integrated evaluation method referred to as Target Ordering. The Target Ordering method was developed in order to better identify which performance outcomes are most important to stakeholders and ensure user control of tradeoffs between impact categories, while retaining simplicity. This method is based on value judgements about how important target outcomes are, rather than how important the impact categories themselves are. That is, it is an alternative to weighting methods. The Target Ordering method is also extended to allow an aggregation of data across multiple time frames. That is, to provide an alternative to discounting. There seems to be a dearth of studies comparing how effective integrated evaluation tools are for helping users to think through and articulate their own preferences and to learn about the preferences of others. This thesis draws on existing research and presents new research, such that the effectiveness of weighting and non-weighting methods on these dimensions may be examined. Two experiments were conducted where a small number of water industry professionals utilised weighting and non-weighting tools to rank a large number of water management options. The non-weighting methods include Target Ordering and a graphical tool for facilitating an intuitive evaluation of management options. These tools are respectively classified as aspirational and holistic evaluation methods. Feedback was obtained from the participants through both surveys and interviews. The survey results indicate that the Target Ordering tool was significantly more useful than weighting methods for helping participants to articulate and apply their values to the problem. In general the Target Ordering tool was easier to utilise and was said to be more intuitive by some participants. The graphical tool was found to outperform a simple weighting method in facilitating users to think through and articulate their value judgements. No differences in usefulness of the graphical method and the Target Ordering method were found. Further experimental research is needed to compare how effective weighting, aspirational and holistic methods are in facilitating learning and communication of preferences in the decision making process. / PhD Doctorate