The purpose of this thesis is to provide a methodological approach for conducting a Business Case Analysis (BCA) for the Advanced Technology Ordnance Surveillance (ATOS) Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD). This study compares the cost savings over time of having an ATOS infrastructure in place at Navy Munitions Management locations compared to the base case of "as-is" inventory management. ATOS is a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based automated system that provides a capability to collect environmental data in near real-time and supports munitions management tasks on stored munitions pallets. This type of data has never before being available and is critical for making more precise decisions about the shelf life and operational performance of individual munitions throughout their service life. ATOS is not meant to be a replacement for the status quo processes of Ordnance Management (OM). Instead, ATOS is meant to enhance many of the current processes and add additional capabilities and dimensions to OM. A Business Case Analysis for a notional site, using exemplar data sets indicates that with an initial investment of 1.3 million dollars, a Net Present Value (NPV) of 5.3 million dollars can be obtained over a 10-year period. The payback period is less than one year, and the Return on Investment is 214 %, or almost 11 % annual, compounded ROI.

The Navy's use of high speed vessels such as HSV-2 SWIFT has raised questions of the effects of high speed motion on the ability of personnel to perform assigned duties. Performance degradation may occur during periods of excessive ship motion because of extreme motion sickness or periods of frequent task interruptions. With the use of high speed vessels expected to increase in the near future with the Littoral Combat Ship program, the issue of high speed motion effects on personnel becomes operationally relevant. This study will take a two part approach to analyze the effects of high speed motion: the motion sickness of SWIFT's crew and military passengers, and interruptions of task performance caused by vessel motion to critical watch stations. For the first part, statistical analysis will be used to determine relationships between ship motion and motion sickness. For the second part, modeling and simulation will be used to determine if there are watch stations that may be affected by varying levels of motion induced task interruptions. From this analysis, guidelines may be produced to describe the expected levels of motion sickness in personnel as well as watch stations in which personnel may have difficulties performing assigned duties.

The number of containers shipped through ports has increased substantially in recent years and has stimulated research and development of ways to improve storage yard operations. The productivity of a portâ s storage yard depends, in part, on the cranes that are working in storage blocks. Each crane follows a route described primarily by the order to move each container that enters or leaves a block and the position to stack each container in the block. Each container that leaves (enters) the block must be unloaded (loaded) in a limited capacity transfer point before (after) a given time. This thesis is the first to develop Integer Linear Programs (ILPs) to prescribe routes for one and two equal sized Automated Stacking Cranes (ASCs) in a single block working with straddle carriers to load and unload containers from the transfer points. Using real world data, we construct test problems varying both the number of container bays (length) and excess capacity of each block. We find one ASC working alone over four hours requires up to 70% more time than two ASCs working together to accomplish the same required container movements. ILP solution time is typically only a few seconds.

The research formulates and exercises stochastic and simulation models to assess the Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) capabilities. The models focus on the surveillance operations of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). The analysis using the models estimates the probability with which a terrorist vessel (Red) is detected, correctly classified, and escorted for intensive investigation and neutralization before it leaves an area of interest (AOI). The difficulty of obtaining adequate interception of the Red depends upon the AOI size, the number of neutral vessels in the AOI, detection and identification capabilities, information retention, and close coordination between the MPA and investigative maritime vessels in various situations. The analysis ultimately provides quantitative guidance on the relative importance of the MIO capabilities. Although the models focus on the MPA operations, the analysis additionally provides various insights and recommendations to other defense components.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / Borders are monitored by a variety of moving and stationary sensors, e.g., patrol agents, video cameras, ground sensors, UAVs, etc. This paper introduces a model for a moving sensor that patrols a perimeter that is infiltrated by malevolent agents (targets). Targets arrive according to a Poisson process along the perimeter with a certain distribution of arrival location, and disappear (renege) a random amount of time after their arrival. The measures of effectiveness (MOEs) presented in this paper are the target detection rate and the time elapsed from target arrival to its detection (waiting time). We study two types of sensor trajectories that are periodic and with constant speed: 1. The sensor moves from a starting point to a certain location and then leaps instantaneously back to the starting point. 2. The sensor moves back and forth between two points. The controlled parameters (decision variables) are the beginning and end points of the patrolled sector. Properties of these trajectories are demonstrated in great generality. The results give decision makers a powerful tool for optimally deploying and operating a variety of sensors in an area of interest. / Outstanding Thesis

The complexity of Peace Support Operations (PSO) requires that a wide variety of aspects and possible effects be considered. Unlike traditional analysis of combat operations, the analysis of PSO aims at avoiding conflict situations, where losses or injuries are to be minimized for all participants involved. Election scenarios in a homogeneous (Sunni) and a heterogeneous (Sunni, Shiite/Kurd) populated representative Iraqi town are developed to evaluate and gain insights on the proposed military tactics, techniques and procedures for the PSO, which may affect the outcome of the election. An agent-based modeling platform designed specifically for PSO is used to model the evolving behavior of civilian individuals and their influences on the emerging behavior of groups. An efficient experimental design, with excellent space filling and orthogonality properties, is employed to gather data from the simulation over a broad variety of scenarios. The voter participation rates, escalation among civilians, and civilian-military interactions are the primary measures of effectiveness. The results indicate that several military measures contribute to a successful election. These include the execution of security control regions, the deployment of election booths intended to calm the crowd and encourage voter participation, and attempts to quell unrest by seeking the cooperation of civilian leaders. Factors such as soldiersâ rules of engagement, civilian fear and anger personalities and their variability also play important roles in the escalation or deescalation of civilian behavior.

In this thesis we develop a new model called Medical Evacuation and Treatment Capabilities Optimization Model (METCOM) that's designed as a user friendly optimization model that augments current simulations and assists in optimizing efficiencies, allowing for redistribution, restructuring, or realignment of medical resources and materials to better meet requirements elsewhere in the area of operations (AO). The model addresses variations in capabilities and policies of the medical evacuation and treatment system (METS) in order to discern effects on desired medical outcomes. A combination of descriptive and prescriptive multi-period models were utilized in order to identify policy effect on key measures of effectiveness (MOEs) and then fully optimize treatment and evacuation capacities for given casualty flows. Results provide medical planners and decision makers with coherent and relevant data allowing for the flexibility to employ a broad range of policies and capacities that would best meet the objectives of saving warfighters' lives and minimizing resource capacity costs required while supporting the overall operational plan.

uction efforts. This thesis explores whether a DO is suitable for urban combat operations by analyzing the results of simulations created in Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). The employment of a DO is compared to employment of a traditional Marine infantry platoon in an urban combat scenario based upon data obtained from Operation al-Fajr, conducted in Fallujah, Iraq, in November 2004. The study also examines the effects caused by varying the terrain to that of Range 200, constructed at the Marine Air Ground Training Command, Twentynine Palms, California. Modeling insights, obtained by surveying Marines with urban combat experience in Iraq, tie into the research effort. This research indicates that the DO is marginally more effective than a Traditional Platoon in urban combat. DO also shows a greater sensitivity to combat outcomes due to urban density, and produced significantly better results in terrain with a lesser density of urban structures.

Anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) are proliferating throughout the world, with some nations gaining the potential to launch them from submarines. The long range of these missiles implies that the submarine would rely on target detections from other forces. Communication delays and accuracy of locating data influence shot accuracy. This thesis uses a maneuvering target statistical tracker model (MTST) of target motion and indicates that the submarine can conduct an effective launch with accurate locating information even with long communications delays. The analysis shows that significant degradation of the probability of target intercept occurs for an alerted or evading target. The analysis then determines how this is affected by the presence of other potential targets for the missile. Two assumptions are made about the performance of the ASCM seeker. A simplistic seeker that selects a target at random performs very poorly if other naval escorts and random neutral shipping are encountered. A more intelligent seeker that uses information about the relative size of the ships and attacks the largest one results in greatly improved performance.

The thesis identifies F/A-18 squadron characteristics that are important predictors of maintenance performance and draws insights on the linkage between the utilization of engineering and technical services (ETS) and maintenance performance measures. Statistical analysis is conducted to identify squadron characteristics that have a detectable contribution to the variability of the performance measure man-hours per maintenance action, and how much additional variability is explained by the squadron that is not accounted for by the squadron characteristics already considered. Thirty months of data were collected for thirteen active duty Marine Corps F/A-18 squadrons. Regression is used to model man-hours per maintenance action as a linear combination of explanatory variables that describe the squadrons in terms of manpower, inventory, and ETS metrics. The test for significance indicates that the model developed in this study is highly likely to have better explanatory power than an intercept-only (average) estimate of the response variable. The study concludes with recommendations for data collection methods that would facilitate the correlation of squadron characteristics to ETS utilization. Critical to the success of this approach is the linkage of ETS utilization to specific squadron maintenance activities, and the development of methods to quantify maintainer training currency.